Estimating integrative effects of the H

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Estimating integrative effects of the Hs on
salmon populations
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Physical processes
Land use
Habitat effects
Hatchery effects
Harvest effects
Other ecological effects
Life-cycle model (effects on abundance,
productivity, diversity, spatial structure)
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Integrative Analyses in Recovery Planning

• Technical questions in the TRT/Shared Strategy
  Watershed Technical Guidance Document address
  integrative assessment.
• The TRT is providing technical analyses to
  integrate the effects of the Hs as part of the
  Snohomish Case Study.

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Snohomish watershed case study overall purpose

• Determine if we can actually use the Technical
  Guidance in a real watershed recovery plan.
• Identify priority habitat, hatchery and harvest
  management actions that are consistent with
  achieving salmon population targets.
• Assist the Snohomish Forum in identifying
  priority areas for action and prioritizing types
  of actions needed to improve VSP for the
  Snohomish chinook populations.

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Snohomish watershed case study participants

• King County, Snohomish County
• Tulalip Tribes
• WDFW
• Seattle City Light
• City of Everett
• NOAA Fisheries
• Snohomish Technical Committee

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Structure of Snohomish watershed planning groups
Technical Committee
Policy Development Committee
Forum
Ecological Analysis for Salmon Conservation
Socioeconomic Analysis
Goals
Develop conservation scenarios
Selection of conservation scenario for inclusion
in plan
Evaluate conservation scenarios using
biological criteria
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How Does the Guidance Document Help This Process?

• Ecological Analysis
• Questions guide compilation of information
• Development of Scenarios
• Scenarios are based on hypotheses about how the
  system works
• Evaluation of Scenarios
• VSP is the focus for assessing population status

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Physical processes
Land use
Habitat effects
Hatchery effects
Harvest effects
Other ecological effects
Life-cycle model (effects on abundance,
productivity, diversity, spatial structure)
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Life-cycle modelsestimating cumulative effects
of suites of actions
Egg
Fry
Smolt
Adult
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Life-cycle modelsestimating cumulative effects
of suites of actions
Egg
e.g., peak flows, sediment, temperature
Fry
e.g., peak flows, temperature, riparian
condition, juvenile rearing capacity,
hatchery interactions
Smolt
e.g., juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery
fish, estuarine/marine habitat conditions, harvest
Adult
e.g., peak or low flows, temperature, sediment,
spawning habitat capacity
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Hypothetical alternative action sets

• Improve riparian condition, reduce competition
  for spawning habitat with hatchery fish, adult
  harvest unchanged
• In addition to 1, improve estuarine floodplain
  habitat accessibility, reduce effects of
  competition with hatchery juveniles, reduce
  harvest in short term, increase harvest as
  habitat capacity increases.

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Hypothetical alternative action set I
Harvest management plan I
improve riparian condition
improve hatchery-wild spawner interactions
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Hypothetical alternative action set II
Harvest management plan II
improve riparian condition
improve hatchery-wild juvenile spawner
interactions
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Example of integrative model results
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II
Population size (or growth rate or diversity)
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I
years
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Physical processes
W-shed group
Land/water use
PFMC
PSC
PSSMP
BRAP
Habitat effects
HSRG
ESA
PSSMP
ESA
Hatchery effects
Harvest effects
Life-cycle model (effects on VSP)
Other ecological effects
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Existing groups developing alternatives

• Habitat watershed groups
• Harvest co-managers, Puget Chinook Harvest
  Management Plan
• Hatchery co-managers and HSRG Regional Reviews

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Next stepsdevelopment of alternatives

• The TRT will work with co-managers, watershed
  groups, and other interested parties to develop
  sets of alternative actions in harvest, habitat
  and hatchery management that can be used
• in integrative analyses

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Example of integrative model results adding
multiple population risk levels
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II
Population size (or growth rate or diversity)
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I
years
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Questions for Development Committee

• What are the key points of interface where
  scenarios combining actions across the Hs can be
  developed?