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Recidivism Study of New Mexicos Convicted DWI Offenders 2000 2003

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Recidivism Study of New Mexico's Convicted DWI Offenders. 2000 2003 ... and survival analysis to show recidivism ... To get information on recidivism ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Recidivism Study of New Mexicos Convicted DWI Offenders 2000 2003


1
Recidivism Study of New Mexicos Convicted DWI
Offenders 2000 2003
Judith S. Harmon, M.A., Brian WoodsSubstance
Abuse Epidemiology UnitInjury and Behavioral
Epidemiology BureauEpidemiology and Response
Division
International Traffic Records Forum Buffalo,
NY August 3, 2005
2
Purpose
  • Demonstrate how convicted DWI offenders are
    screened and tracked in New Mexico
  • Describe how data analysis is achieved through
    data linkage of databases for convicted DWI
    offenders in New Mexico
  • Describe recidivism of convicted DWI offenders

3
Background
  • In 1993 the New Mexico Legislature enacted DWI
    laws to enhance serious problem of DWI
  • Increased the rate of liquor excise tax
  • Required all convicted DWI offenders be screened
    for alcohol and/or substance abuse
  • Created the Local DWI Grant Program (LDWI) funded
    through the Local Government Division of the
    Department of Finance and Administration
  • All 33 counties in New Mexico have LDWI Programs

4
Total Alcohol-Involved Crash Deaths and
Legislative and Administrative Actions in New
Mexico, 1980 2003
5
New Mexico has contracted with ADE Incorporated,
Clarkston, Michigan to
  • provide a computerized alcohol and substance
    abuse assessment (NEEDS) and client tracking
    program (CTP) to standardize screening and
    tracking of DWI offenders for the state of New
    Mexico

6
Screening Process
7
Methods
  • There are four processes for this project
  • Collection and cleaning of DWI data from 33
    county programs
  • Data preparation
  • Data linkage between DWI county program data and
    Motor Vehicle Division DWI citations (DWICTS)
  • Data analysis for demographics, sanction
    completion and survival analysis to show
    recidivism

8
The Datasets
  • The NEEDS and CTP data
  • collected at the county level between 2000 - 2003
    on DWI offenders
  • Data collected quarterly from each county to
    address data quality to insure end of year data
    collection is accurate
  • All data sent to the State DOH where it is
    cleaned and combined into one statewide dataset
  • Contains Demographic information NEEDs, a
    standardized alcohol and substance abuse
    assessment instrument to establish treatment
    need Tracking information on the sanctions
    assigned (CTP) Court information
  • Type of sanction with start, completion, and
    termination dates Agency where sanction was
    carried out

9
  • DWICTS
  • Information on all DWI Citations since 1984 is
    tracked by the Motor Vehicle Division in the DWI
    Citation Tracking System.
  • Contains personal identifiers, DWI arrests,
    administrative actions and court information.
  • Pulled biannually for traffic safety analysis
    purposes by Division of Government Research at
    UNM for the Traffic Safety Bureau, New Mexico
    Department of Transportation

10
Number of DWI Convictions and Screenings in New
Mexico, 2000 - 2003 
11
Data Preparation
  • The NEEDS and CTP data
  • Originally MS-Access relational database.
  • Each table imported into SAS.
  • The tables are merged and one client level
    dataset is created.
  • Cleaned up name, residence city and SSN.
  • Standardized matching variables with variables in
    DWICTS.

12
Data Preparation
  • DWICTS Data
  • Fixed common errors in name and city fields.
  • Unduplicated the DWICTS so that there was one
    record for each person.
  • Standardized the matching variables with the
    variables in the NEEDS and CTP data

13
Data Linkage Why Link?To Get More Complete
Information
  • To get DWI arrest and conviction histories on
    individuals in the NEEDS and CTP data
  • To get an estimate of the proportion of
    individuals convicted of DWI who are being
    screened and tracked in each county
  • To get information on recidivism
  • As time goes by more complete information on
    recidivism will be available

14
Probabilistic Data Linkage
  • Ideal for linking data with imperfect personal
    identifiers
  • Creates probabilities from the frequency
    distribution of matching variables
  • Produces weighted matched criteria based on the
    sum of the matching variables probabilities

15
Linkage Process
  • All linkage carried out using the Automatch
  • Three matching passes carried out
  • Blocking variables
  • Pass 1 SSN
  • Pass 2 Date of Birth
  • Pass 3 First and Last Name
  • Matching variables
  • SSN, date of birth, first name, last name, middle
    initial, residence city, reporting county and
    residence county, residence zipcode, residence
    state, sex, evaluation date, start dates for DWI
    school, probation, community service and court
    dates

16
Variable Comparisons
17
Match Rates
  • 96 of the individuals in the NEEDS and CTP data
    linked to the DWICTS data
  • 63 of the individuals in the DWICTS file with a
    DWI conviction on a court date from 2000 - 2003
    linked to the NEEDS and CTP data
  • This excludes three counties data due to poor
    quality
  • Other factors are being investigated

18
Survival Analysis
  • Exposure-Time to repeated DWI event with complete
    and incomplete observations
  • Mean-Time to repeated DWI following conviction
  • Risk of repeated DWI, hazard and survival
  • Comparisons by factors to repeated DWI

19
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20
Cumulative Re-Arrest Rates by Race/Ethnicity
Source Linked NM Screening and Tracking System
and CTS convicted DWI offenders, 2000 - 2003
21
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22
Cumulative Re-Arrest Rates by Gender
Source Linked NM Screening and Tracking System
and CTS convicted DWI offenders, 2000 - 2003
23
Cumulative Re-Arrest Rates by Age
Source Linked NM Screening and Tracking System
and CTS convicted DWI offenders, 2000 - 2003
24
Cumulative Re-Arrest Rates by BAC Levels
Source Linked NM Screening and Tracking System
and CTS convicted DWI offenders, 2000 - 2003
25
Cumulative Re-Arrest Rates by Prior Convictions
Source Linked NM Screening and Tracking System
and CTS convicted DWI offenders, 2000 - 2003
26
Cumulative Re-Arrest Rates by Source of Alcohol
Before Arrest
Source Linked NM Screening and Tracking System
and CTS convicted DWI offenders, 2000 - 2003
27
Cumulative Re-Arrest Rates by Type of Sanction
Source Linked NM Screening and Tracking System
and CTS convicted DWI offenders, 2000 - 2003
28
Major Findings 2003
  •     The median blood alcohol level for convicted
    DWI offenders is 0.16g/dl excluding offenders
    with missing blood alcohol levels. Including
    offenders missing blood alcohol levels the median
    is 0.14g/dl. The legal limit in New Mexico is
    0.08g/dl.
  • Outpatient treatment is recommended by the CTP
    for 73 of convicted DWI offenders
  • 50.9 of convicted DWI offenders consumed
    alcohol obtained directly from restaurants, bars,
    or stores where liquor is sold just prior to
    their DWI arrest.
  • Native Americans have the highest re-arrest
    rates
  •    The younger a convicted DWI offender is, the
    higher the re-arrest rate
  •   10.2 of convicted DWI offenders with one
    prior conviction have a re-arrest

29
Future Directions for Datasets and Analysis
  • Further analysis of linked datasets to examine
    sentence completion and recidivism, as well as
    successful sanction combinations to reduce
    recidivism
  • Data linkage expanded to include New Mexico crash
    data, Behavioral Health Services Treatment data
    as well as NEEDS, CTP and DWICTS data
  • A web-based NEEDS and CTP has been initiated and
    will be operational in all 33 counties in New
    Mexico by the end of August 2005.
  • All data from 1999 to present has been uploaded
    into web-based system
  • Additional data fields to track offenders from
    arrest to final disposition of sentence are
    included in web-based system

30
Ways to Improve the Linkage
  • Include Violation Date on the CTP to enable
    linkage at the citation level instead of
    offenders.
  • Soundex algorithms to overcome variable
    spellings, e.g. C de Baca or Cedebaca
  • Incorporate recognition supplemental file to
    include aliases and other used identifiers.

31
Future Challenges
  • CTP data shows possible lapse of 10 years between
    violation (arrest) and conviction
  • Improve data from counties with poor data quality
    by further training of county personnel
  • 38 of Motor Vehicle Division convictions not
    shown in CTP data collected by counties
  • As a result of our finding, the New Mexico DWI
    Czar is investigating this further
  • In the past Ignition Interlock data has been too
    sparse for any noticeable comparison
  • Evaluate recidivism dynamics over time

32
Declining Recidivism Rates?
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