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Title: The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program RISA: Designing effective assessments for d


1
The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments
Program (RISA) Designing effective assessments
for decision support
  • Roger S. Pulwarty
  • NOAA
  • Boulder CO 80305
  • CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP

2
  • What/where are the critical issues and who is/are
    defining them?
  • What are the processes?
  • What are the applications?
  • What are the outcomes?

3
Planning for climate risks?
  • There is strong
  • evidence
  • that existing climate
  • risks are not being
  • adequately incorporated
  • into decision-making,
  • even with regard to
  • weather extremes

(Source MunichRe, Topics Geo Annual Review,
Natural Catastrophes, 2005)
4
Conclusions, so far
  • Degradation is often a long-term process with
    cumulative phases of acceleration and
    deceleration
  • Rates of changes are important
  • Processes involve multiple timescales
  • (conjunction of several factors at unique
    points)
  • Degradation must be placed within wider social
    and environmental dynamics (other phases of
    landscape transformation)
  • eg size of settlements and adequacy of social
    mechanisms to deal with changing circumstances

5
  • Three reasons for assessing climate change in the
    context of adaptation to extremes and
    variability
  • A strictly long-term focus can overshadow the
    role of surprise in shaping responses
  • (2) Adaptations in many cases are driven by
    crises, learning and redesign
  • (3) Opportunities exist to learn from
    organizations that cope with change and focus on
    responses and social networking such as disaster
    relief and research
  • ..BUTlong-term scenarios can also bring focus
    on changes in extremes

(Orlove, 2004 Pulwarty, Broad, Finan, 2003)
6
The Asipu A group of priests in the
Tigris-Euphrates valley 2500-3000 BC
  • Hazard identification
  • Data collection and analysis
  • Generation of alternatives
  • Report creation

7
Integrated assessment
Forecast generation Projections
Dissemination
Utilization
8
Problem-solving approaches conditioned by system
uncertainty and decision stakes (Adapted with
permission from Functowicz and Ravetz, 1990)
gt2 nd Order Contexts (Integrated
Assessments Decision-support)
Decision Stakes
Consultancy (Specific applications output)
Can/should probabilities be specified for this
area?
Applied Sciences (Impacts)
Problem solving approach
System Uncertainty Physical systemsand linkages
Economics Human Dimensions
9
Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix
10
Drought
11
Mantua 2005
12
Focusing event(s) and cumulative Impacts
Response
Preparedness
Mitigation
Recovery
Prevention
Development
13
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14
Multiple competing valuesMultiple, competing
objectives
Hydropower
Ecosystems health
Recreation
Consumptiveuse
Flood control
Agriculture
15
Benefits of controlling seasonality/hydrology
  • Conveyance of flood waters
  • Storage for irrigation (and power)
  • Predictable navigation opportunity
  • Enhanced recreational uses
  • Adaptation requirements
  • Sufficient water resources for experimentation
  • Resilience identified/understood in key ecosystem
    components
  • Flexibility among stakeholders
  • Room for political negotiations

16
Where do science and policy speak to each
other?and, what do they talk about?
17
Interacting with other Disciplines
18
Interacting with other institutions
Environment
Industry
State
Communities
International Pressures
19
Interacting........
Are we exceeding design specs on this stand?
No, youre biased
Youre biased
Everyone is biased except me
Oh, youre biased
20
Lessons from the disaster research community
  • Technical range of choice
  • (state of knowledge, technology, resources at a
    given point in time)
  • Practical range of choice
  • (culture, community, practice, communication)
  • No choice
  • (power, access/procedure, capacity)

21
Where do science, policy and practice, speak to
each other?and, what do they talk
about?Climate variability and change
22
Q 3. Find x
x
3 cm
4 cm
23
Q 3. Find x
Here it is !
x
3 cm
4 cm
24
Regional Integrated Sciences and
AssessmentsObjectives and Approaches
  • Characterize the state of knowledge of climate
    variations and changes, and their social,
    economic, and ecological interaction, impacts
    and projections at appropriate scales of interest
    within a region
  • Identify knowledge gaps in selected critical
    climate-environment-society problems in a region
    and carry out research to bridge these gaps as
    needed
  • Assess regional and local resources, capacity ,
    and decision-support dialogs needed in
    responding to environmental variability and
    change
  • Carry out research focused on realizing the
    benefits of integrated knowledge and forecasts in
    different contexts and provide an informed basis
    for place-based decision support and services

25
Approach to Integrated Research
  • First vertical assessment, then horizontal
  • 1. Understand the physical system, including
    predictability and uncertainty
  • Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature
    and consequences of human choices and activities
  • Understand the institutional context of these
    systems, e.g. processes, laws, constraints,
    decision calendars, and customs under which human
    choices are made
  • Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.

26
.viewed from Information chain
27
  • Usual stakeholder interaction
  • Concentrates on the incorporation of new
    knowledge or experience into existing models,
    decision processes and practices
  • Needed
  • The most important learning involves values,
    norms, goals, and the basic framing of issues
    in terms of the drivers and importance
  • Innovative partnerships incl.research

28
Elements of adaptive management Learning by doing
  • Recognition of scientific and management
    complexity and uncertainty /with practitioners
  • Directive and/or need for action
  • Implement management actions to address resource
    problems as experiments
  • Monitor and evaluate effects of
    action/experiments (what works, what does not)
  • Develop integrated models for watershed
    interactions, legal and cultural requirements
    etc.
  • Develop experiments in a participatory process
    involving a key parties (transactions costs)

29
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30
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31
NOAA NOAA-Supported Centers
32
Seattle PUD WDOE/Water Supp. Portland Water
Bur. NPPC BPA
Seattle City Light Tacoma PL NOAA River FC US
Army Corps Seattle City Council
PNNL
OSU/USFS
US Forest Service National Park Service WDNR
U of I Water Markets/ Energy
Hydrology/ Water Resources
Forests/ Forest hydrology
ID Governors Office State Legislature USDOI -
Western Regional Office
Climate Dynamics
WSU Agriculture
Human Health
Aquatic Ecosystems
BLM NRCS Farmers Irrigation districts
WA Department of Health
Coastal Activities
WDOE Shorelands Prog.
WDFW NMFS NPFMC PFMC
NWIFC CRITFC IPHC
OSU Battelle - Seattle

OR Dept. of Lands Development,
Coastal Management Prog.
33
Integrated Decision Support Modeling Tool
  • Stresses
  • Climate Variability and
  • Change (e.g., drought)
  • Regional growth
  • Increased population
  • Changes in land use

Responses New storage Conjunctive
Use Increased Reuse Agricultural
Efficiency Conservation
  • Will there be sufficient water of adequate
    quality to meet competing demands?
  • Municipal and Industrial
  • Agriculture
  • Environment

Goal Improve regional capabilities to adapt to
climate-related impacts.
34
Projected Population Growth
NV
AZ
UT
NM
CO
CA
USA
35
Issue So Many Stakeholders!
Continental Scale Focus of modelers
Different Scales (time space) Different
Issues Different Stakeholders
Watershed/Local Scale Where impacts happen
Where stakeholders exist
36
http//hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTo
ol/
  • Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts
  • Six elements in our webtool
  • Exploring Forecast Progression
  • Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials
  • Forecast Performance
  • Historical Context
  • Use in Decision Making
  • Details Forecast Techniques, Research

37
Historical Context for Forecasts/projections
Requested by Fire managers Applicable to any
climate variable
La Nina
Recent History Possible Futures
Neutral Non-ENSO sequences
38
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39
Population
40
Wildfire Threat forecast
  • The end product is a monthly, county-by-county
    forecast of the KBDI.
  • Graphic shows the probability of at least 7 days
    in the month being above or below critical
    thresholds.
  • Thresholds were determined with input from
    forestry and wildfire experts.
  • Forecast was based on the Neutral ENSO phase.

41
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42
CDC-CIRES Western Water Assessment Mission
To improve water-related decision-making and
management in the Interior West by increasing the
scope, quality, availability and relevance of
climate products and knowledge
43
Colorado River Flow Departures from Average
WET DRY
Compact
GCD
Salton Sea
Climatic InfluencesENSOPDO/VSouthwest
MonsoonLand Surface Feedbacks Extreme Events
44
Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstructed
flow 1530-1990s
45
Timescales
Indeterminate
Long-term
Decade
Annual Seasonal
Daily-monthly Hourly
Flows necessary to
protect endangered species
Inter-basin allocations and those allocations
among states Upper
Basin delivery obligations Lake
Powell-Lake Mead equalization storage
Peak heating and cooling months Flood
control operations, Kanab amber snail
impacts Western Area Power Administrations
power generation decisions
Household-municipal- county
Tribal/State
Regional
National
Global
46
Water Resources Decision calendars
47
Reservoir Management Decision Calendar
Water Year Planning Next Water
Year Planning
Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation
while maintaining target flows
Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water
until February snowpack observations
Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall
release decisions
Winter releases based on January/February
snowpack observations
Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release
decisions
Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve
Legend
Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation
planning
Planning Process
Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation
Operational issues
Peak Flow Augmentation releases
Potential use of forecasts
Plan releases for Summer irrigation hydropower
Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation
hydropower release decisions
Provide for Summer irrigation hydropower needs
while maintaining target flows
48
Regional Water Issues Activities
49
Regional Water Issues Activities
50
Key partnerships
51
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52
How Does RISA Support Adaptation to Climate
Variability and Change?
Decision-support tools Designed to facilitate
use of climate information in operations and
planning
Research Investigating sensitivity and
vulnerability to climate variability and
change Provides the foundation for decision
support and outreach activities
Outreach Designed to develop (and maintain)
ongoing relationships with the stakeholder
community
53
Research categories identified by participating
groups
  • Strategic
  • Mission focused, seeks understand natural and
    human processes identified as important to the
    solution of a specified problem
  • Applied
  • Uses existing knowledge to identify approaches
    and develop prototype technologies and processes
    to solve problems of widespread importance
  • Adaptive
  • Articulate problems at local and regional scales
  • Identify appropriate approaches to solution
  • Relevant prototype technologies/processes
  • Fit these to the particular circumstances of
    specific groups

54
  • Robustness Strategies for Information
  • Knowledge and information
  • Scientifically credible
  • Socially robust
  • Political legitimacy
  • Practical utility
  • Effectiveness
  • To what extent are probabilistic estimates about
    the future climate impacts robust?
  • (given inability so far to include ENSO, AMO
    others)

55
  • Raising awareness of the role of climate
  • Increasing capacity for response
  • Innovative research partnerships
  • Informing decsionmaking Understanding context,
    communication and pratice

56
Approaches to risk communication and associated
assumptions Beyond two-way communication
__________________________________________________
_________________________ Approach
Assumptions and actions Development and From
the risk expert to the public--finite and
delivery of a risk message uni-directional
Aimed at bringing public views into line
with expert views Assumes expert view has
more validity for decision-making Dialogue about
risk Interactive exchange of risk
information--continuous Aimed at balancing
the content of risk message Assumes both
views contribute to decision-making Social
processes Engage in a process that addresses
concerns about risk of risk communication Aimed
at enhancing understanding among stakeholders
(DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the
process is as important as the
product __________________________________________
____________________________
57
Is the research relevant for decisions?
Analysis of usefulness for policy/decision making
arena
Are the sources/providers of information
credible to the decision maker?
Is the research compatible with existing
decision models?
Are policymakers receptive to the problem and
to research?
Is the research accessible to policy/decision
maker?
Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for
decisions,usability,entry points, experience
58
Water Resources frames
59
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60
Managing Uncertainty
Where is the uncertainty?
- adequate theory -multiple hypotheses
congruent management actions. -tractability
(complexity) -confronting models
w/data -independence/ rigor -novelty
-Problem Domain -science -organizational -co
mmunity -political
61
Managing Uncertainty
-Problem Domain -science -organizational -com
munity -political
- expressions of power - multiple
equilibria paths not taken - NONE are scale
invariant - stability of institutions novelty
of approaches - role of epistemic groups -
multiple discourses - juggling domains
62
A Sea Change in Perceptions
Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of
value and relevance of information about climate
variability and change
1995 Few managers saw role for climate info,
recognized predictability of climate, or
possessed a conceptual framework for applying
climate info
1997-98 El Niño and concomittant media
attention stimulated widespread interest in
information about climate variability and in CIG
Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential
impacts of climate change and unprepared to use
such information
2001 Senior-level water resources managers
recognize climate change as a potentially
significant threat to regional water resources
acknowledge climate change information as
critical to future planning
2001/2 50-year drought brings intense media
attention to issue and CIGs work ? public
private pressure on State agencies to include CC
impacts in long-term planning ? significant
involvement of CIG in multiple efforts
2003 to present day Continued significant
breakthroughs with stakeholder groups
63
Whats your conceptual model? What is your
mental model? How does this affect your choice
of problems and recommended solutions? What
ought to be done is easier to specify than to
understand what is being done
64
Where do science and policy speak to each other?
65
Characteristics of successful conservation and
resources-based agreements in the Western US
  • Strong focusing events
  • Significant public interest
  • Personal attention of key leaders
  • Close interjurisdictional partnerships
  • Strong funding for research collaboration
    between research and management
  • Meaningful Stakeholder involvement

66
  • Workshops and meetings (shared scenario
    construction shared model building?)
  • Presentations and briefings (incl. locally
    organized events, e.g. hearings)
  • One-on-one technical assistance
  • Coordination with other ongoing projects
  • Work with the local media
  • Web site development and maintenance
  • Graduate-level courses on climate impacts
    adaptation
  • What else is needed? Research on the role of
    climate information in adaptive governance

67
  • Adaptive governance
  • Integrates various types of knowledge and
    organizations
  • Recognizes redundancy and slack as buffers
  • -relies on open decision-making processes
    recognizing multiple interests, community-based
    initiatives, and integrative science in addition
    to traditional science

68
  • Local information system
  • Discrete set of information resources organized
    for the collection, processing, maintenance,
    transmission, and dissemination of information in
    accordance with defined procedures to meet
    specific needs
  • Major information system
  • Special management attention because of its
    importance to an agency mission, its high
    development or maintenance costs or its
    significant role in the administration of agency
    programs, finance, property or other records

69
Hazard Information Past incidenceMaps, factors
affecting occurrence
Criticality From hazards to vulnerability to risk
Element of Concern Critical facilities, natural
resources, agriculture, population, development
(existing./proposed)
Site and Feature Characteristics Specific
damage/loss estimate Physical suite
characteristics, structural strength, content
exposure
Hazard Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
What are the hazards? What severity? What return
periods?
Who, what are vulnerable Why?
Risk Assessment
What is the expected degree of loss?
Economic Analysis Of risk reduction options
Identification of risk reduction options
Formulation of desired risk reduction strategy
70
Implications for Regional Climate Services
  • Developing the institutional capacity to provide
    climate services is neither quick nor easy.
    Requires
  • Defining the types of climate information that
    are most useful for the specified applications
  • Producing very specific, mutually defined
    products
  • Building trust with stakeholders over time
  • Developing an integrated research and outreach
    team for continued innovation

71
Team design and evolutionWhat mix of
disciplines, partnerships and institutions?
72
Adaptation experiences to inform governance (1)
  • Clarification of goals at the human-environment
    interface
  • while we sought consensus the fish disappeared
  • Distillation of lessons from comparative
    appraisals of current and past practices
  • foresight ? hindsight
  • Construction of a solid cooperative foundation
    for research and management

73
Adaptation experiences to inform governance (2)
(4) Assess how policies and practices have been
diffused and become embedded in other
localized or specialized policy processes (5)
Stimulate the innovation and field-testing of
policy experiments for adaptation across
climate timescales (not just a particular
climate scenario) Need for innovative
research partnerships
74
  • Integrate an understanding of local contexts and
    contending perspectives with an understanding of
    how new information becomes framed and socialized
    into agendas
  • Assess impediments and opportunities to the flow
    of information including issues of credibility,
    legitimacy, and acceptability

75
NOAA NOAA-Supported Centers
76
Interactions
Participatory Assessmentsaction-research
orientation
A. Assessments Situation Participants Activities
Needs Resources/Capacity
C. Policy contexts and decision-making processes
B. Range of scientific knowledge
frames predictive capabilities uncertainty,
ignorance/ indeterminacy
D. Dynamic dialogue between researchers
(non-decisive) and practitioners (decisive) on
problem-definition shared understanding of
significance and value conflicts
Constraints Time,, Rates of change
77
A Prototype Pathway for RegionalClimate
Information Services
RISAs, universities, and labs
Integrating knowledge and products (CDC,
ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs)
Operational (RCCs, NCDC,
CPC, WFOs, SCs, other
private sector)
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT
IMPLEMENTATION SERVICES
Regional Oversight and Evaluation
OTHER NON-NOAA PARTNERS

new or enhanced regional products information
delivery technology sustained systematic
communication and feedback
78
National Integrated Drought Information System
(NIDIS)
Creating a National Drought Early Warning System
  • Goal To enable the Nation to move from a
    reactive to a more proactive approach to
    droughts.
  • WGA believes NOAA should be designated as the
    federal lead for NIDIS. NOAA should take the
    initiative to convene and coordinate all of the
    relevant entities, including federal and
    non-federal partners, as well as scientists,
    water users and policy-makers to implement those
    aspects of NIDIS that can be accomplished under
    existing authorities and funding.

www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf
79
Doing the wrong thingmore precisely
80
Climate Research Impacts Society Unexpectedly?
81
A pathetic track record for implementation of
environmental assessment and adaptive management
Successful Modeling failure
Implementation failure
82
We can now build some really impressive looking
models
Peregrine falcon
Cowbird
Water birds
Sparrows etc.
Exotic fishes Native fishes
Aquatic insects Terrestrial insects
Detritus
Benthic algae Riparian vegetation
Flow Turbidity Temperature
Water management regime
83
Early Warning (sub)Systems
  • Monitoring and forecasting subsystem
  • National, regional and local levels
  • Risk assessment sub-system
  • Enable disaster management authorities to
    generate risk and impact scenarios
  • Preparedness sub-system
  • Outline and inform actions required to reduce
    the loss and
  • damage expected from an impending hazard event
    Who? What? When?
  • Communication and public awareness sub-system
  • Communication/delivery of timely information on
    impending events, potential risk scenarios and
    preparedness strategies to vulnerable groups
  • Evaluation and feedback sub-system
  • Scale Who are the actors? What are their
    perspectives and needs? What are the entry
    points for decision-making? What decisions are
    made? How can this process be improved

84
National Integrated Drought Information System
Customer defined measures of drought
Research
Prediction
Monitoring
Integrating Tools
Better informed decision making at state, local
and individual levels
ImpactMitigation
ImprovedResponses
ProactivePlanning
85
Modify societal characteristics
  • Adjustment process
  • Perception
  • evaluation
  • Social system
  • Variation/change
  • Exposure
  • Response
  • Choice
  • Adoption of practice

Natural Hazard Disaster
  • Natural system
  • Variation/change
  • Magnitude
  • Duration
  • frequency
  • Hazard effects
  • Costs and losses
  • gains

Emergency
adjustments
Modify biophysical characteristics
86
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87
Hazard Vulnerability Socio-economic
National and
Political Economy
International Policy
  • EVENT PREPAREDNESS STATUS
  • Return period,
  • Duration
  • Magnitude,Seasonality
  • Uncertainty
  • Self protection Income Distribution Generation
    allocation (location, building
    Livelihood surplus
  • quality Opportunity
  • Social Protection Social powercontrol
  • Hurricanes (Building regulations GENDER Debt
    crises level of scientific Household Environm
    ental degradation
  • knowledge/use) Security,Nutrition
  • Flood
  • Drought
  • RESILIENCE? CULTURE//STATE
  • Earthquakes Strength of assets Income,Assets Inst
    itutional
  • Volcanic Discrimination
    Support
  • Activity Recovery of - Regional
  • livelihood - Local
  • Landscape Impacts of previous
    interventions Biases, Training

D I S A S T E R
Political ecology of disasters Pulwarty and
Riebsame, 1997 Blaikie et al 1994 others
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