Saving Carbon by Day and Night Temporal effects of the low carbon agenda

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Saving Carbon by Day and NightTemporal effects
of the low carbon agenda

• Dr Christian N. Jardine
• Environmental Change Institute
• University of Oxford

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The Domestic Sector

• Reducing CO2 emissions from the domestic sector
  by 60 by 2050

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Energy Use Within The Home

• Nearly 2/3 of energy goes on space heating
• 1/4 of energy used for heating water
• Lights and appliances moderately small, but
  rising rapidly (digital etc.)

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Our context

• Four objectives of Energy White Paper 2003
• 60 reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050
• adequate and affordable warmth
• security of supply
• competitiveness
• Accounts for likely changes in population and
  climate

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GB residential energy trends, 1970-2001
Based on Shorrock and Utley (2003)
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A growing and ageing population

• population peaks around 2050
• design for lifetime standards and social
  inclusion
• an opportunity to save energy while improving
  quality of life

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Effect of household size on energy use
Source Fawcett et al 2000, based on analysis of
EHCS 1996 data
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Improving the Housing Stock
High Carbon
Low Carbon
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Demolition rates - UK
ODPM 2003
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Housing stock changes, 1996 2050
Net additions, 1996 2004
refurbish
New build, 2005 - 50
demolish
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Fabric improvements by 2050
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Technical Potential of Appliances

• Major savings to be made from
• Lighting (LEDs replace incandescent bulbs)
• Cold appliances (vacuum insulated panels)
• Consumer electronics continues to grow
• Profligate equipment (air conditioning, patio
  heaters, hot tubs, plasma TVs) not taken up

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Key Challenges

• Improve efficiency of cold appliances and
  lighting
• Ensure low-carbon product design
• Over-emphasis on energy efficiency

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Low- and Zero-Carbon technologies (LZC)

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LZC Deployment
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Beyond Central Heating

• A chance for change 45 years 3 replacement
  boiler cycles
• Gas boilers in just 20 of homes by 2050
  (compared to 90 now)
• Average 0.8 LZCs per home by 2050
• Residential sector is a net exporter of
  electricity (summer time)

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Domestic energy use to 2050

• Energy use declines marginally to 2050
• But CO2 emissions 43 of present levels
• All electricity and most heat from onsite
  microgeneration

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40 House summary
More space, heat, hot water, lights, appliances
133 housing stock
100
70 demand reduction
40 low- zero-carbon micro-generation (LZC)
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Towards a low-carbon housing strategy

• Needs strong leadership and a coherent policy
  framework
• Tighter building regulations and compliance
• Extensive refurbishment of existing properties
• Target property transactions as key to improving
  existing homes
• Strong EU policies establish energy conservation
  as product design principle
• Widescale LZC deployment replacement of central
  plant with distributed plant
• Diversity of LZC technologies energy security

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Impacts of a low carbon agenda

• SUPERGEN consortium on highly distributed power
  systems

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HDPS Business as Usual
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HDPS Low Carbon
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Influence of central generation
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Emissions Factors
Favours CHP Reduces capacity Helps decarbonise
Favours Heat pump Increases capacity Could
recarbonise
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Additional factors

• Capital cost of CHP lower than heat pump
• CHP less disruptive than heat pump (unless air
  source)
• CHP ve running costs from sale of electricity
• Heat pump ve running costs
• How do you get the incentives right?

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Electricity peak demand
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Reducing load and peaks

• Energy efficiency
• Lower load, same peaks

2. Efficient lights appliances Lower load,
smaller peaks
3. Load-shifting with smart appliances Same
load, smaller peaks
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Temporal effects of microgeneration

• CHP Generates Winter Morn and eve
• Solar PV Generates Summer Midday
• Microwind Generates Winter Morn and eve
• Heat pump Load Winter Morn and eve
• CHP and heat pumps are both controllable, within
  bounds of comfort

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Daily domestic loads (Winter)
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Domestic lighting service
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Domestic lighting advances
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Daily domestic loads (Winter)
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Demand Side Management
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Demand side Management

• Potential for DSM by appliances becomes limited
  as efficiency improves
• Simultaneously, increased penetrations of
  microgeneration
• So, why not use controllable microgeneration in
  the home for DSM
• CHP and heat pumps, coupled with heat store
• Many kW of capacity per house
• C.f. average 50W appliances per house

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Initial Time Step Results - 2050
BAU -61.8GW to 15.2GW Virtually never In surplus
Low Carbon -34.0GW to 74.8GW Balancing needed
Deep Green -34.4GW to 80.4GW Even more balancing
needed
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DSM with CHP and Heat Pumps Forward by up to 6
Hours
Example Deep Green scenario, zoomed in on the
spring of 2050. Sometimes the surpluses and
deficits are eliminated, sometimes not!
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Use Excess Electricity for Heating
Low Carbon scenario before (left) and after
(right) the third adaptation
Deep Green scenario before (left) and after
(right) the third adaptation
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Summary Curtailed Energy
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Conclusions

• A low carbon housing stock is possible, even with
  more homes
• Quality of life improves
• 2/3 savings from energy efficiency
• 1/3 savings from LZCs
• Significant grid impacts
• Can be solved by getting right mix of heating
  technologies
• Involvement of households heating systems in DSM
• Households participate in, and rewarded for,
  aiding grid operation

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• Thank you for your attention

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UK Electricity Mix

• Coal, oil and gas lead to emissions of the
  greenhouse gas CO2
• Gas also burned for heating in the home

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Residential electricity use
ECI, Decade Second Year Report, 1995
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Spread of electricity and gas use
Gas
Electricity
BRE, Energy Use In Homes, 2005
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Spread of consumption
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Demand for air-conditioning in a warmer climate
EdinburghWorst Case 0
Manchester Worst Case 7
Cardiff Worst Case 29
London Worst Case 42
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Cooling strategies and carbon emissions