Seasonal Migration of Labor in the Autumn Lean Period in Northern Bangladesh

1

• Welcome

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Identifying and Quantifying the Factors Affecting
Seasonal Migration of Labor in the Autumn Lean
Period in Northern Bangladesh

• A research proposal prepared by the Economics and
  Social Science Research Group, BRAC University

3
Introduction

• Seasonal migration of labor in the autumn lean
  period is an important livelihood strategy for a
  large number of poor people in Northern
  Bangladesh. Our study wishes to identify and
  quantify the factors influencing such migration
  decision on the basis of evidence gained from
  Kurigram district of northern Bangladesh.

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The Story

• The economy of our study region is based on
  agriculture and the agricultural workers are
  mostly landless or own marginal landed property.
• Bleak flourishing of manufacturing sector is
  responsible for the absence of diversification in
  labor dynamics.

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• The agricultural sector, on the other hand, is
  characterized by lack of crop diversification. In
  more than 80 of the farms only one (aman paddy)
  or two crops (aman and boro paddy) are produced
  annually.

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• So, every year after the plantation of aman, in
  the late September to early October and before
  the harvesting season begins in December,a large
  pool of agricultural workers remains jobless.
• This seasonal unemployment in agriculture causes
  excess supply of labor in the non-agricultural
  sector, which lowers the real wage of the
  workers.

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• Compared to other parts of our country supply of
  labor in agriculture is more superfluous in our
  study region distressed sale of labor is a
  common phenomenon.
• The real wage is almost 50 lower in Greater
  Rangpur including the Kurigram district, than in
  any other part of the country.

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• Seasonal unemployment in agriculture further
  aggravates the situation, which eventually lowers
  the purchasing power drastically.
• During the autumn lean period, food stocks also
  run out and they do not have any job before them,
  hence no payment, they suffer more severely and
  every year some of them end up meeting a morbid
  fate.

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• So, in order to improve their living standards
  during this lean period, people who are able and
  conform to some characteristics, migrate to
  various parts of the country like Kurigram town,
  Rangpur, Dhaka, Sylhet, Chittagong etc.

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Significance of such migration

• This migration is seasonal and cyclical in nature
  and the migrants come back by December as the
  aman harvest begins.

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Why Do They Prefer Temporary Mobility To
Permanent Move

• They prefer temporary mobility to a permanent
  move because it offers the chance to combine a
  village based existence with urban opportunities.

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• In the face of increasing unemployment in the
  urban formal sector and lack of job security in
  the urban informal sector, many people find it
  worthwhile to keep rural options open, because it
  helps them to spread risk.

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• In most cases, seasonal migrants move without
  their families since supporting a family in the
  village is cheaper. The existence of family in
  the village provides with an incentive to come
  back after a short stay in the town.

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• But the most important factor, which leads to
  temporary move rather than a permanent, is the
  reversal of the urban-rural wage differential as
  the aman harvest begins in December.

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Research Questions

• In our proposed study we will try to find out the
  answer to the question
• 1. Who are most likely to migrate in the
  autumn lean period?
• 2. Why do they migrate?

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Objectives

• Keeping the research question in mind, we will
  try to fulfill the following objectives
• To identify the characteristics of the seasonal
  migrants, and
• To quantify the effects of the factors affecting
  such migration decision using econometric tools.

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Justification of the Study

• A good number of studies have been conducted to
  analyze the internal migration behavior in
  Bangladesh. But to the best of our knowledge,
  there has been no significant initiative to
  analyze empirically the seasonal migration
  pattern in the autumn lean period in Northern
  Bangladesh.

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• Secondly, this phenomenon clearly indicates the
  fact that poverty has both seasonal and regional
  dimensions in Bangladesh. So, the agencies
  working towards eliminating poverty could find a
  new line of direction from the study.

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• And finally, if we can identify who are most
  likely to migrate and why do they migrate, then
  we will be able to suggest policy recommendations
  so that the necessity to migrate disappears to
  some extent.

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Literature Review
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Methodology

• Following the human capital approach to migration
  (pioneered by Sjaastad), we will focus on
  migration behavior at the individual level.
  Following the work of Perloff, Lynch and Gabard
  (1998), we argue that seasonal migration decision
  of a worker depends on the expected costs and
  benefits of a move.

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• A worker will migrate only if his/her expected
  benefits from moving exceed the expected costs of
  moving.

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Benefits and Costs of Migration

• Poverty-led factors affect the benefits and costs
  of such migration and thereby the decision to
  migrate.
• Individual characteristics have profound effects
  on seasonal migration decision.

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Poverty-led factors include

• Shortage of year round employment
• Limited land ownership
• Ecological vulnerability
• Access to the social security net (like the VGF
  scheme, or NGO membership)
• Access to formal credit market.
• Access to HYV.

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Individual characteristics affecting migration
decision

• Age
• Sex
• Marital status
• Education
• Occupation
• Migration experience
• Kinship at the place of destination.

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Assumptions

• We assume that the seasonal migrants prefer
  temporary mobility to a permanent move away from
  the village. Thus, BL CL gt 0 and BN CN 0.
  Here BL and CL are the benefits and costs of
  moving in the lean period and BN and CN are the
  benefits and costs of moving in the normal
  period.

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• We also assume that the costs of migration in the
  normal time are greater than the costs of
  migration in the lean period. This assumption is
  valid on the ground that, during the lean period,
  when job opportunity shrinks, opportunity cost of
  leaving present employment is very low.

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• The benefits from moving, however, depend on the
  expected earnings from staying and moving, that
  is,
• B LE ML-ESL and BN EMN ESN , where E
  stands for expected earnings, and subscripts M
  for moving, S for staying, N for normal period
  and L for lean period.

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• Since there is no significant seasonal variation
  in the urban job market, we assume that the
  expected earnings from moving in the normal time
  and that in the lean period are the same.

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Implications of the Assumptions

• Together these assumptions imply that, people
  migrate seasonally because expected earnings from
  staying in the village fall drastically in the
  lean period of the year.

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Utility (U)
Total Utility (TU)
Income (Y)
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Utility (U)
Income (Y)
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The Econometric Model

• We use Probit model to quantify the effects of
  different factors influencing the seasonal
  migration decision of the individuals.

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• By using a probit model we will be able to
  measure the changes in the probability to migrate
  as the values of various explanatory variables
  change. For example, we can say that holding
  everything else constant, a male individual is
  --- more or less likely to migrate compared to
  a female individual with same characteristics.

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Hypotheses

• 1. We hypothesize that, holding other things
  constant those who are economically dependent
  (either less than 15 years or more than 65 years
  of old) are less likely to migrate in the lean
  period because their costs of migration is
  relatively high.

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• 2. Due to limited employment opportunity of women
  in the urban centers, expected earnings from
  moving will be low for the female population. As
  a result, female members of a family will be less
  likely to migrate than the adult male members of
  a family, holding other things equal.

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• 3. Studies on permanent migration reveal that
  those who are married, have closer ties with
  their families and relatives. So, they are less
  likely to migrate (e.g. Lee, 1985). But in case
  of seasonal migration in the lean period this
  phenomenon is expected to be reversed. When mere
  survival becomes crucial, the responsibility to
  feed dependents (spouse and children) raises the
  probability of migration.

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• 4. The seasonal migrants are usually employed in
  the informal sector, where educational
  qualification does not always matter. So, the
  expected earnings from moving in the lean period
  are hypothesized to be unaffected by education.
  Rather since an educated person is likely to have
  better job opportunities in the village, it will
  be more costly for him to migrate in the lean
  season.

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• 5. In the autumn lean period, agricultural
  workers suffer mostly from the shortage of
  employment. When job opportunity is limited,
  opportunity cost of migration is low and the
  expected earnings from moving become very high
  compared to the expected earnings from staying.
  So, the migration intention for the agricultural
  workers is hypothesized to be very high compared
  to the others.

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• 6. The cost of migration is inversely related to
  prior migration experience. Holding other things
  equal, the more experienced a worker is, the less
  will be the searching cost in the urban job
  market. Thus, we hypothesize that the probability
  to migrate will be higher if the worker has prior
  migration experience.

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• 7. Another important determinant of cost and
  benefit to migrate is kinship at the place of
  destination. Relatives and friends in the
  potential places of residence can provide
  information as well as economic support for
  migration. Thus, who have kinsmen at the place of
  destination, require less resource and have
  greater probability to migrate.

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• 8. Seasonal unemployment in agriculture raises
  the migration intention of the nonagricultural
  laborers.

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• 9. Land ownership also affects migration
  decision. Holding other things equal, if a worker
  has to face more competition for land use within
  the family, his/her migration intention will be
  higher because it lowers the expected earnings
  from staying at village.

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• 10. Ecological vulnerability, like flood and
  river erosion, affects seasonal migration
  decision. In the flood or river erosion affected
  years, livelihood at the village becomes more
  difficult compared to the normal years and the
  probability to migrate increases.

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• 11. Access to HYV is hypothesized to lower the
  migration intention.

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Sampling Method

• Though the study is based on analyzing individual
  migration behavior, the main source of data would
  be a household survey. Our study area would cover
  three thanas from Kurigram district, namely
  Kurigram Sadar, Chilmari and Ulipur. These
  thanas, however, have been chosen randomly.

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• In the second stage of sampling, we will randomly
  select two villages from each thana.
• Then in the third stage, we will randomly select
  25 villages from each village.
• Thus, there will be 300 respondents in our model,
  which is quite a manageable size.

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• The survey would be conducted with the help of a
  questionnaire, and it will be mechanized in such
  a way that all the necessary information can be
  gathered.
• For data collection, we will visit the study area
  in January,2006.