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Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrs vritable Atlantique Is Nova Scotia Makin

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Title: Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrs vritable Atlantique Is Nova Scotia Makin


1
Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - AtlantiqueIs Nova
Scotia Making Genuine Progress? An Overview of
Some Key Trends Halifax, 30 October, 2008
2
Defining Genuine Progress
  • Are there consensus values on the kind of Nova
    Scotia we want to leave our children?
  • Health and wellbeing, safety and security, decent
    living standards, educated populace, access and
    inclusion, healthy environment and natural
    resources, strong and caring communities
  • Beyond ideology

3
From indicators to accounts
  • What distinguishes GPI from other wellbeing
    indicator systems adds economic valuation
    component -gt moves towards accounting system
  • In line with 5 capitals in OSP, which
    recognizes that social, human, and natural
    capital also have value -gtaccounting framework
  • And EGSPA Recognizing the economic value of
    Nova Scotias environmental assets is essential
    to our long-term prosperity.

4
-gt A new accounting system
  • This new accounting framework allows assessment
    of full economic, social, and environmental costs
    and benefits, of cost-effectiveness of
    alternative policy options
  • vs existing accounting system Social, human,
    natural capital ignored and their depletion
    misleadingly measured as gain anything can
    make economy grow regardless of OSP/Weaving
    Threads goals

5
A mixed picture
  • Improvements in employment, real income, income
    equity (inclusion), poverty reduction, provincial
    debt status, waste and air quality (20-year
    timeline), smoking rate, GHGs..
  • Declines or insufficient progress (in relation to
    targets) in agriculture, forests, fisheries,
    ecological footprint, energy shift, wealth
    equity, obesity, volunteering, student debt..
  • Just a few examples follow

6
Official unemployment rates, Canada and Nova
Scotia, 1976-2007
7
Official unemployment rates by region, Nova
Scotia, 2001 to 2007
8
Disposable Household Income (Richest Poorest
20) Canada and Provinces, 1981-2004 (2004)
9
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10
Average disposable (after-tax) economic family
income by quintile, adjusted for family size,
Canada and Nova Scotia, 1976-2006 (2006)
11
Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs
base), total population, Canada and Nova Scotia,
1997-2006
12
Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs
base), selected groups, Nova Scotia, 1997-2006
13
Gini coefficients of after-tax income, all family
units (economic families and unattached
individuals), Canada and provinces, 1981 to 2004
14
Civic and voluntary work, average hours per year,
total population, 15 years and older, Canada and
provinces, 1992, 1998, and 2005
15
Free Time, Nova Scotia and Canada, 1992,1998,
2005 (hours per day)
16
Share of population indicating high time stress,
NS and Canada, 1998 2005
17
Crime rate, total incidents per 100,000
population, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1962-2007
18
Crime rate comparison NS and Canada rates of
increase, 1962-2007 (1962100)
19
Crime rates (per 100,000 population), by offence
breakdown, Nova Scotia, 1962-2007 Crime cost
700 million/year
20
Youth crime rate per 100,000, aged 12-17, Canada,
provinces and territories, 2006
21
Change (Percent) in Total After-Tax Income
(19992004) and Median Debt Value (19992005),
Canada
22
Net Worth by Wealth Quintile ( Trillions, 2005
Constant ), Canada, 1999 and 2005
23
Share of Wealth (Percent), by Net Worth Quintile,
Canada, 1999 and 2005
24
Current Youth Smokers, aged 1524, Canada and NS,
19992005
25
Percentage Decline in Tobacco Use, Canada
Provinces, 1999-2005
26
Measured obesity rates by province, aged 18,
2004
27
Overweight and obesity rates by province,
children, aged 2 -17, 2004
28
Percentage of population aged 12 and over
diagnosed with asthma, both sexes, Canada and
provinces, 2007
29
Average amount of government student debt at time
of graduation (2000 CDN), Classes of 1990, 1995,
and 2000, Canada
30
Percentile scores of correct answers to general
political knowledge questions, by age group,
1984, 1993, 1997, 2000
31
  • Total Farm Cash Receipts, NS, 19712007 (Millions
    of 2007)

32
Total Net Farm Income, Nova Scotia, 19712007
(millions of 2007)
33
  • Expense to Income Ratio (),
  • Nova Scotia Farms, 19712006

34
Total Net Farm Income and Total Debt, NS Farms,
1971-2006 (millions of 2007)
35
  • Debt to Net Income Ratio,
  • Nova Scotia Farms, 19712006

36
  • Solvency Ratio, Nova Scotia, QC, and Canadian
    farms, 19712006

37
Fishery GDP for Nova Scotia, 1984-1999 (1997
millions)
38
Value of cod stocks, Eastern Scotian Shelf
region, 1972-2002, (2007 millions).
39
Lobster landings in Nova Scotia, 1972-2007
(metric tonnes)
40
Mean trophic level (weighted by landed weight) in
Nova Scotia Fisheries, 1972-2007
41
Estimated total biomass of porbeagle shark in the
northwest Atlantic, 1961, 1991 and 2001
42
Employment trend in Nova Scotia fisheries,
1987-2007
43
Age distribution of Nova Scotian fishers,
1931-2006
44
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45
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46
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47
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48
Protected areas, Nova Scotia, 2007
49
Total area harvested and area clearcut, Nova
Scotia, 1975-2005, (hectares)
50
Percentage of area harvested by clearcutting,
1975-2005
51
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52
Value-added per cubic metre of wood harvested, by
province, 1998 2004, (2007)
53
Nova Scotia Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (kt of
CO2 equivalents), 1990-2006
54
Per capita GHG emissions, Canada, provinces,
territories, 2006 (kt of CO2 equivalents)
55
2006 NS greenhouse gas emissions broken down by
sector (kt of CO2 equivalents)
56
Major sources of GHG emissions, Nova Scotia, 2006
57
NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 1990-2006,
compared to NS EGSPA target for 2020
58
NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 1990-2006,
cf Suzuki Fdn. emissions target for 2020
59
Cumulative potential damage cost avoidance
through achieving the NS Environmental Goals and
Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation
Targets (based on graduated emission reductions
from 2008-2020)
60
Cumulative potential co-benefits through
achieving the NS Environmental Goals and
Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation
Targets (based on graduated emission reductions
from 2008-2020)
61
Control cost estimates of meeting the NS
Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity
Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on
graduated emission reductions from 2008-2020)
62
Summary of damage avoidance benefits and control
costs in year 2020 and cumulatively 2008-2020,
(C2005 mill.)
63
Cost-effectiveness
  • Every 1 invested in reducing GHG emissions
    through 2008-2020 will save 29 in avoided
    damages.
  • When control costs are subtracted from benefits
    attained by avoiding climate change damages and
    achieving co-benefits (cleaner air), net
    cumulative benefit of achieving EGSPA greenhouse
    gas emissions target by 2020 is 846 million
  • Meeting the Suzuki target will produce a net
    cumulative benefit of 1.8 billion
  • Stern "The benefits of strong, early action on
    climate change outweigh the costs."

64
Energy use, final demand, terajoules (TJ), Nova
Scotia, 1978 to 2006
65
Power generation fuel mix for Nova Scotia Power,
1993-2006
66
Total road passenger movement, in Nova Scotia,
1990-2006 (millions of passenger-km)
67
Total road passenger movement, NS, by vehicle
type, 1990 to 2006
68
Total GHG emissions from transportation, NS, 1990
to 2005 (kt CO2 equivalents)
69
Number of fatalities and injuries from road
accidents per 100,000 residents, Nova Scotia,
1990 to 2005
70
Modal share (percentage) of transportation to
work, Nova Scotia, 1996-2006
71
Reducing NSs Ecological Footprint eg)
Transportation
  • Drive less, walk cycle more, use public
    transport, car-pool. Switch from 1/car -gt 4/car,
    3 days/week, reduces commuting footprint by 45
  • Coordinated land use/transportation planning is
    essential to bring about any substantial shift in
    transportation patterns

72
Indicator Nova Scotia Criteria Air Contaminant
Emissions (kg/capita) 1990-2005
73
NS Footprint Projected to 2020
Figure 16, The Nova Scotia Ecological Footprint,
GPI Atlantic 2001
74
Can we do it?Percentage Waste Diversion in Nova
Scotia
75
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76
Full cost Accounting Results
  • The new NS solid waste-resource system in 2000-01
    produced net savings of at least 31.2 million,
    when compared to the old 1996-97 solid
    waste-resource system
  • This translates into savings of 33 for each Nova
    Scotian, versus a cost of 25 as suggested when
    comparing strictly the operating and amortized
    capital costs of the two systems

77
Benefits
  • Total benefits of 2000-01 system range from 79
    million to 221 million 84-236 pp, incl
  • 3.3 - 84.3 million in GHG emission reductions
  • 9 - 67 million in air pollutant reductions
  • 18.8 million in extended landfill life
  • 28.6 million in energy savings from recycling
  • 6.5 - 8.9 million in employment benefits
  • 1.2 - 1.9 million in avoided liability costs
  • 1.1 - 1.7 million in export revenue of goods
    and services
  • 187,000 in additional tourism

78
Energy savings per tonne of waste recycled
79
Costs
  • Total costs of 2000-01 solid waste-resource
    system were 96.6-102.7 million
  • 72.4 m. in operating and amortized capital costs
  • 14.3 m. for beverage container recycling prog.
  • 2.7 million for used tire management program
  • 1.6 million in RRFB operating and admin costs
  • 5 - 9.5 million to increase participation
  • 220,000 - 1.8 million in nuisance costs

80
Conclusions Accounts
  • 1995 NS Solid Waste-Resource Strategy has led to
    a considerable net benefit, both in monetary and
    non-monetary terms
  • The solid waste-resource system in 2000-01,
    despite increased operating and amortized capital
    costs, provided a net savings of between 31
    million and 167.7 million compared to the
    operating and amortized capital costs of the old
    system

81
Indicators of Genuine Progress
  • diversion from landfills lt5 -gt 50
  • Access to curbside recycling in Nova Scotia
    jumped from less than 5 in 1989 to 99 today
  • 76 of residents now have access to curbside
    organics pickup
  • Access highest rates in the country
  • This is genuine progress

82
Conclusions Indicators
  • Nova Scotia is a leader both internationally and
    nationally in solid waste diversion.
  • The accessibility, comprehensiveness, and levels
    of waste being composted and recycled have all
    improved since the introduction of the Solid
    Waste-Resource Strategy.
  • BUT backsliding Diversion 50 (2000) -gt 36
    today (a/c NS DOE) 41 (Statcan)

83
Per capita solid waste disposal (kg) for Canada
and provinces, 2004 and 2006
84
Diversion rate of waste by province and
territory, 2004 and 2006
85
Per capita solid waste disposal (kg per capita
per year), Nova Scotia, 1996/97-2006/07
86
Residential recycling rate, Canada and provinces,
2000-2004
87
Percent of residents who compost, Canada and
provinces, 1994 and 2006
88
Volunteerism Atlantic Provinces lead (formal
rate)
89
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90

Measuring What we Value - Leaving a Sustainable
and Prosperous Nova Scotia for our Children
91
Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic CanadaIndice
de progrès véritable - Atlantique
  • www.gpiatlantic.org
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