TIGGE

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• TIGGE
• The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
• Philippe Bougeault
• Co-chair, GIFS-TIGGE WG
• TIGGE LAM
• Tiziana Paccagnella
• Chair, TIGGE LAM Panel

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WMO/WWRP/RDP/ THORPEX THe Observing system
Research and Predictability Experiment

• TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global
  Ensemble, is a key component of THORPEX a World
  Weather Research Programme to accelerate the
  improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week
  high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of
  humanity.
• The first TIGGE workshop was held at ECMWF from 1
  to 3 March 2005 and the full workshop report is
  available on the THORPEX Web site and has been
  published in the WMO series WMO/TD-No. 1273
  WWRP/THORPEX No. 5.

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1st TIGGE workshop, ECMWF, March 2005
The workshop discussed the needs of research and
application projects in terms of multi-model
ensemble data, with a focus on severe weather
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Spread-Error for Three Operational Ensemble
Forecast Systems
error
spread
May-June-July 2002 average RMS error of the
ensemble-mean (solid lines) and ensemble standard
deviation (dotted lines) of the EC-EPS (green
lines), the MSC-EPS (red lines) and the NCEP-EPS
(black lines). Values refer to the 500 hPa
geopotential height over the northern hemisphere
latitudinal band 20º-80ºN. Buizza et al (2005)
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Key objectives of TIGGE discussed at the Reading
workshop

• An enhanced collaboration on development of
  ensemble prediction, internationally and between
  operational centres and universities
• New methods of combining ensembles from different
  sources and of correcting for systematic errors
  (biases, spread over-/under-estimation)
• A deeper understanding of the contribution of
  observation, initial and model uncertainties to
  forecast error

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Key objectives of TIGGE (continued)

• A deeper understanding of the feasibility of
  interactive ensemble system responding
  dynamically to changing uncertainty (including
  use for adaptive observing, variable ensemble
  size, on-demand regional ensembles) and
  exploiting new technology for grid computing and
  high-speed data transfer.
• Test concepts of a TIGGE Prediction Centre to
  produce ensemble-based predictions of high-impact
  weather, wherever it occurs, on all predictable
  time ranges
• The development of a prototype future Global
  Interactive Forecasting System

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Development in two phases

• Phase-1 data will be collected in near-real
  time (via internet ftp) at a small number of
  central TIGGE data archives. This can be
  implemented now at little cost and could handle
  the estimated 200 GB per day data volumes with
  current network and storage capabilities
• Phase-2 data archives will be distributed over a
  number of repositories, instead of all being held
  centrally, but efficient and transparent access
  to users will be maintained. This is a more
  flexible solution with the potential to eliminate
  routine transfers of large data volumes. But this
  will require substantial software development
  over a number of years, in coordination with the
  WMO Information System, and will require
  additional funding

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Development in two phases

• Phase-1 data will be collected in near-real
  time (via internet ftp) at a small number of
  central TIGGE data archives. This can be
  implemented now at little cost and could handle
  the estimated 200 GB per day daa volumes with
  current network and storage capabilities
• Phase-2 data archives will be distributed over a
  number of repositories, instead of all being held
  centrally, but efficient and transparent access
  to users will be maintained. This is a more
  flexible solution with the potential to eliminate
  routine transfers of large data volumes. But this
  will require substantial software development
  over a number of years, in coordination with the
  WMO Information System, and will require
  additional funding

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TIGGE infrastructure Phase 1

• Data collected in near-real time (via internet
  ftp) at central TIGGE data archives
• Can be implemented now at little cost
• Can handle current data volumes (estimated 200
  Gb/day) within available network and storage
  capabilities

Predictability science
Real-world applications
NHMS
academic
End user
TIGGE Centre A
TIGGE Centre B
EPS 1
EPS 2
EPS n
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TIGGE infrastructure Phase 2
Predictability science
Real-world applications

• Data distributed over several repositories
• But keep efficient and transparent user access
• Flexible minimise data transfers
• Needs substantial software development
• Coordination with WMO Information System
• Requires additional funding

NHMS
academic
End user
Portal to distributed (virtual) archive
EPS 1
EPS 2
EPS n
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Who will benefit from TIGGE?

• The research community at large, and in
  particular the science working groups of THORPEX
• A number of research/development projects
  targeted at specific applications of severe
  weather forecasts (health, energy, flood
  warning, fire weather, etc)
• The forecast demonstration projects of THORPEX
  and WWRP (e.g. BeiJing 2008 FDP/RDP)
• Future field campaigns on adaptive observations
• IPY projects may become active users of TIGGE
• The hydrological community (e.g. through HEPEX)

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TIGGE Partners

• Archive and Distribution Centres CMA, ECMWF,
  NCAR (more in phase 2!)
• Data providers
• BMRC (Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre)
• CMA (China Meteorological Administration)
• CPTEC (Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos
  Climaticos),
• ECMWF
• FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and
  Oceanography Center)
• JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency),
• KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration)
• Meteo-France,
• MS Canada (Meteorological Service of Canada)
• NCEP
• UKMO
• TIGGE Web site ECMWF
• Meta-data centre NCAR
• Verification Web site JMA

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The GIFS-TIGGE WG

• Philippe Bougeault ECMWF
• David Richardson UKMO
• Barbara Brown NCAR
• Chen De Hui CMA
• Beth Ebert BMRC
• Martin Ehrendorfer Innsbruck
• Tom Hamill NOAA CDC
• Mark Roulston Penn State
• Pedro Silva Dias CPTEC

• Warren Tennant Africa
• Zoltan Toth NCEP
• Laurie Wilson MSC
• Yoshiaki Takeuchi JMA
• Hee Dong Yoo KMA

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TIGGE and NAEFS

• The North-American Ensemble Forecasting System
  (NAEFS) is planned to become fully operational by
  March 2006 (USA, Canada, Mexico)
• TIGGE is initially a broader, and more
  research-oriented effort
• Scientific approaches may be different (e.g. the
  treatment of biases, the combination techniques,
  etc..)
• However, best effort is done to minimize
  duplication of work, share infrastructure and
  adopt common formats and methods whenever
  possible
• Exchange of research results will be encouraged
• Ultimately, the two projects may evolve into a
  single concept (within the Global Integrated
  Forecasting System)

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TIGGE and the Task Force on Seasonal Prediction

• Under WCRP, the TFSP plans to organize an
  international coordinated experience in seasonal
  prediction
• This involves large commonalities with TIGGE
  regarding the data formats and exchange
  procedures
• Coordination will be sought
• Cross-participation in the groups is currently
  organized

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Data to include in priority

• Ensemble forecasts generated routinely (often
  operationally) at different centres around the
  world. This is the core data of the TIGGE
  archive. The total daily data volume is expected
  to be around 200GB, based on a preliminary list
  of required parameters developed at the workshop.
  
• Observational data and existing datasets
  including re-analyses and re-forecasts
• Additional special datasets generated during the
  TIGGE project for specific research and
  applications.

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Content single level fields

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Content single level fields

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Content upper air fields

• 5 parameters on 8 pressure levels 1000, 925,
  850, 700, 500, 300, 250 and 200 hPa.
• Geopotential height on 50 hPa as well.
• 41 fields in all.

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Content - formats

• GRIB2 agreed by all partners
• Units, names of fields, accumulation periods,
  etc.. Will be identical for all data providers
• Grids
• Data Providers will be asked to provide data on
  grids of their own choosing, which are as close
  as possible to the native grid employed to carry
  out the predictions
• Data Providers should ensure that appropriate
  software is available to the Data Centres to
  enable users to interpolate data to
  latitude/longitude grids and locations of their
  choosing
• Data Providers should ensure that when revisions
  to their systems are made the interpolation
  software will still work.

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User access Registration

• Data Providers to supply their products to the
  Archive Centres under an agreed set of rules,
  which will include re-distribution rights
• Access to be provided for Research Education
  through a simple electronic registration process,
  with valid e-mail address and acknowledgment of
  conditions of supply
• Under the simple registration process, access to
  be given with a delay (48 hours) after initial
  time of the forecast (reference time of data in
  GRIB2)
• Registration for real-time access to be handled
  via the THORPEX IPO

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User access Data retrieval

• It is unavoidable that in Phase 1 each Archive
  Centre will provide data through a different user
  interface
• The user interfaces will allow to download any
  set of data (sub-setting and sub-sampling
  facilities) at single points or on a regular
  lat-lon grid defined by the user
• Automatic regular requests will be possible

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Link with the users

• The WGs of THORPEX are expected to be the main
  users of TIGGE
• Representatives of these groups have been invited
  to the GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting
• The GIFS-TIGGE WG has appointed a liaison with
  the SERA WG
• More exchanges will be possible at the Common
  event in March 2006
• A 2nd TIGGE workshop will be organized in 2007
• The GIFS-TIGGE WG comprises a certain number of
  academic users. As the data bases develop, there
  will probably be a need to organize a more formal
  representation of the users

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Progress in 2005-2006

• TIGGE Workshop (March 2005)
• Technical organization for Phase 1 developed by
  the archive centres and agreed by the technical
  representatives of the ten potential data
  providers
• The GIFS-TIGGE working group of THORPEX has been
  appointed and will lead the project
• First meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE WG took place at
  NCAR on 15-16 November 2005
• General approach was approved by ICSC in December
  2005
• Early 2006, THORPEX/IPO sent letters to request
  commitment of all partners of the project (signed
  by the Secretary General) and received positive
  replies

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• ECMWF and NCAR worked together to experiment all
  technical procedures of data transmission
  ADD/LDM (from Unidata) was selected as data
  transmission protocol
• Latest status report
• Daily data are received at ECMWF from Met O and
  JMA
• NCEP data expected before end 2006
• Some users could then have access to raw datasets
  very quickly, but more work will be needed to
  complete the development of all interpolation
  procedures to provide a user-friendly access to
  data

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TIGGE-LAM

• LAM-EPS are an important component of the future
  GIFS
• TIGGE-WG discussed roadmap towards TIGGE-LAM at
  its March 2006 meeting
• The perceived priorities are
• To facilitate exchange of initial and boundary
  conditions between ALL global ensembles and ALL
  LAM ensembles by agreed standard data formats and
  contents
• To agree content and standard format of LAM
  ensemble data for wide exchange and evaluation
• To exchange meta-data through a common Internet
  site
• To explore which Centres are willing to take a
  leading role in offering
• routine boundary conditions,
• elocatable LAM ensembles
• archiving services
• Dissemination
• etc.. for a TIGGE-LAM
• To define Scientific Issues
• To agree on verification and calibration
  methodologies and related implementation
  strategies

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Actions towards TIGGE-LAM

• A panel of experts is being appointed work by
  email initially, then possibly a physical meeting
  if funding can be secured
• Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA) has accepted to chair
  the panel and the panel work will start in Autumn
  2006
• The panel will report to TIGGE-WG

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TIGGE LAM Panel Provisional Terms of Reference

• the panel should formulate recommendations
  regarding the formats of global ensemble data to
  provide initial and boundary conditions for
  limited-area ensembles, keeping in mind the GIFS
  objective to facilitate the exchange of
  information. If possible, universal formats
  should be sought.
• the panel should formulate proposals for the
  creation of a coordinated archive of limited-area
  ensemble forecasts. If possible formats for such
  an archive should be fully compatible with the
  formats already agreed for the archive of global
  ensemble forecasts under TIGGE (see the TIGGE
  Internet Site, http//tigge.ecmwf.int for a
  complete specification of the TIGGE archive for
  global models). The TIGGE-WG has certainly made
  efforts to implement solutions which were not
  seen as conflicting with the perceived needs of
  LAMs
• .
• the panel should survey the interest from various
  centres to act as archiving centres for
  limited-area ensemble forecasts, and more
  generally as resource centres for TIGGE-LAM.
• the panel will conduct his business initially by
  e-mail. At some stage a physical meeting will be
  arranged, pending available resources from the
  THORPEX Project Office or other sponsors, such as
  GEO.
• the panel will report to the TIGGE-WG (in charge
  of developing TIGGE under the THORPEX Core
  Steering Committee)

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Actions towards TIGGE-LAMList of issues to be
tackled and discussed

• Interface to couple Global Ensembles (models) to
  LAMS
• LAM output and formats
• LAM archive
• Calibration and Verification
• Scientific topics to be addressed and
  investigated
• WEB SITE
• Links with other projects and bodies
• Funding
• Others.

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Actions towards TIGGE-LAM

• TIGGE-WG will urge the THORPEX Community to work
  on scientific issues of the coupling between
  global and LAM ensembles
• Assess impacts of mismatch between the physical
  parameterizations of global and regional models
• Assess the need to define bias corrections
• Assess impacts of large mismatch in horizontal
  resolution
• What is the best way of generating perturbations
  for LAM EPS?

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TIGGE-LAM output and formats

• The starting point is the list of parameters
  defined by the TIGGE WG. TIGGE-LAM can of course
  add or withdraw data to this list .
• Recommended Fields must be produced with the
  same unit and keeping the same philosophy as
  regards cumulating and averaging periods (e.g.
  precipitation must be cumulated from the forecast
  start). The homogeneity between data from Global
  and LAM ensemble will make easier (feasible)
  verification and comparison.

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TIGGE-LAMLinks with other projects and bodies

• TIGGE GIFS (in Primis)
• SRNWP gt Cooperation on Ensemble forecasting
• NAEFS
• ET-EPS of the CBS
• Joint Working Group on Verification WGNEWWRP

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• Thank you

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