Orientation for New Task Force Members

1
Confronting the Regional Land Use and
Transportation ChallengeThe D.C. Perspective
Presentation to COG TPB CAC June 9, 2005
2
Overview

• DCs changing role in the region
• Where we are today
• Where we are headed
• Why the COG forecasts concern the District
• Other approaches and ideas
• The Comp Plan as a vehicle for guiding change

3
DCs Changing Role
4
50 Years of Regional Expansion
Population Share
1950
2000
5
50 Years of Regional Expansion
Employment Share
1950
2000
6
Dynamics of Population Change
802,178
572,059
7
DC has the same number of households today as it
had in 1960, but with 200,000 fewer residents
2.72
2.16
Household Size
Households

• Household size has declined consistently since
  1960
• Between 1980 and 2000, number of households
  dropped by 4,800 but number of residents dropped
  by 66,000
• Small households in, large households out
• Today, 44 of all DC households are single people

8
Change has Been Uneven
Population Change, 1980-2000
Clusters that lost population Clusters that lost
gt 15 percent of their residents
9
Change has Been Uneven
10
Change has Been Uneven
By 2000, poverty became more concentrated in DC
than it was in 1990---counter to national trends.
Change in concentrated poverty rate, 1990-2000
11
Change has Been Uneven
12
Growing More Inclusively
13
The Transportation Benefits of a Strong Center

• 37 of DC households dont own a car
• 38 use public transit to get to work (2nd in
  nation, after NYC)
• 12 walk to work (2nd in nation, after Boston)
• Average journey to work is 29.7 minutes
• 70 of those traveling to Metro walk to the
  station 15 use the bus
• Urban land use pattern is efficient from a
  transportation perspective

14
Facing the Future Why DC Must Grow

• Fiscal Imbalance
• 53 percent of the citys land area is non-taxable
  
• 2/3 of the income earned in the city is exempt
  from local income taxes
• Regional environmental benefits associated with
  maintaining a strong center
• Growth provides critical mass for additional
  retail and other services
• Unmet housing needs and affordability issues

• But
• Emphasis is on retaining existing residents
• Attract/retain families as well as
  singles/couples
• Dont compromise neighborhood character or
  overburden infrastructure

15
Facing the Future DCs Forecasts
(in thousands)
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Trouble with the Regional Forecasts

• Inner ring counties approach housing buildout
  around 2020 but keep adding jobs through 2030
• Overall, jobs grow at 3 times the rate of
  households between 2020-2030
• Examples
• Fairfax County projects an additional 72,000 jobs
  during the 2020s, but only 2,800 more households.
• Montgomery County projects 55,000 more jobs
  during the 2020s, but only 15,000 more
  households.
• Prince Georges County projects 88,000 more jobs
  during this period, and only 23,000 households.

17
Trouble with the Regional Forecasts

• Shortfall of as many as 487,000 housing units
  projected by COG is unacceptable to the District.
  Would result in
• Traffic congestion
• Urban sprawl and open space loss
• Environmental impacts, especially air/water
  quality
• Affordable housing
• Central City decline

Forecasts provide an opportunity for a regional
dialogue on key issues
18
Other Approaches and Ideas

• DC is relatively small and reached buildout in
  1950, yet we have identified the capacity for
  60,000 new units
• For five decades, all growth has occurred through
  infill and redevelopment
• This is about the same number of units to be
  added by PG County (485 Sq Mi), Montgomery County
  (496 Sq Mi), or Fairfax County (396 Sq Mi)
  between 2005-2030
• How can built out jurisdictions accommodate more
  households?

19
Home Again

• Restores vacant and abandoned units
• of vacant and abandoned units in DC has
  declined from 6,500 in 1999 to 1,650 today

20
New Neighborhoods

• Ten underdeveloped sites with the capacity for
  16,000 new units
• Hope VI replaces public housing with mixed income

21
New Communities

• Targets crime hot spots and at-risk public
  housing
• Provides 11 replacement of subsidized housing
  units, while adding market rate units
• Creates mixed income neighborhoods
• Five pilot sites identified, with potential to
  expand
• Total 3,000-5,000 new units in first five years

22
Great Streets

• Focuses development along corridors, coupled with
  investment in streetscape, transportation,
  economic incentives

23
The Living Downtown

• More than 5,000 units to be added, primarily in
  the Mt Vernon Triangle and NY/ NOMA areas

24
Promoting Infill
About 600 acres of vacant land Potential for
11,000 additional units under current zoning
25
Strategic Redevelopment

• At least 10,000 units of additional capacity
  exists on commercially zoned land with
  improvement value well below land value
• Much of this land is around Metro stations, and
  along key corridors

26
Guiding Change DCs Comp Plan

• General Provisions
• 10 Citywide Elements
• Ward Plans

• Economic Development
• Housing
• Environmental Protection
• Transportation
• Public Facilities
• Urban Design
• Preservation and Historic Features
• Downtown
• Human Services
• Land Use

Did you know that
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Guiding Change DCs Comp Plan
February 2004 More than 2,000 residents
participated in eight Ward Summits
November 2003 More than 3,000 participants
attended Citizen Summit III
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Guiding Change DCs Comp Plan

• Collect and analyze baseline data
• Resolve Plan format and structure issues
• Complete Policy Audit
• Formulate revised policies and actions
• Revise the Land Use Map
• Assess Plan impacts
• Prepare Draft Plan (1/06)
• Adoption (6/06)

Community Input and Outreach
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Guiding Change DCs Comp Plan

• Website www.inclusivecity.org
• 28-member Citizens Task Force
• Citywide public workshops (Jan 2005, Sep 2005,
  Jan 2006)
• ANC briefings/ direct outreach to ANCs
• Outreach to interest groups, citizen/civic
  associations
• Press releases/ media liaison
• Interagency Working Group
• Small Group Discussions
• Public hearings

30
Guiding Change DCs Comp Plan

• New format, easier to read and navigate
• Graphics and maps to be incorporated
• New elements to be added (parks, arts, etc.)
• Goals, policies, and actions to be more clearly
  defined
• Accountability and implementation to be vastly
  improved
• Emphasis on long-range planningnot operations
• Three Vision themes to be interwoven

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Ideas for Other Jurisdictions

• Take stock of underutilized land
• Focus on commercial and industrially zoned areas
• Consider rezoning employment-generating land to
  housing
• Public education and outreach regarding the
  issues at hand

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Questions?
Barry.Miller_at_dc.gov 442-7630 Jill.Diskan_at_dc.gov
442-8708