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Climate change, air quality, and health. Lead: Catherin

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Climate change, air quality, and health. Lead: Catherine Karr, MD PhD MS ... 40% of the U.S. population -including Spokane and Seattle (Bell et al 2004. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate change, air quality, and health. Lead: Catherin


1
Climate change, air quality, and health
  • Lead
  • Catherine Karr, MD PhD MS
  • University of Washington
  • Department of Pediatrics/Env Occ Health
    Sciences
  • ckarr_at_u.washington.edu
  • Co-investigators (UW associated) J. Elizabeth
    Jackson, Richard Fenske, Michael Yost, Cole
    Fitzpatrick, Roger Rosenblatt
  • Co-investigators (WSU associated) Brian Lamb,
    Serena Chung, Jack Chen, Jeremy Avise

How did I get here?
2
Outline
  • The Conceptual Model (qualitative)
  • climate change ? regional air quality
  • regional air quality ? adverse health outcomes
  • A first step Regional Public Health Risk
    Assessment (quantitative)

3
Climate Change Air Quality
The influence of meteorology on air quality is
substantial and well-established
4
Aeroallergens Amount, timing distribution
Allergic Diseases Asthma Rhinitis
Adaptive measures
Research
(Bernard et al. EHP 2001109199)
5
(No Transcript)
6
Meteorology PM2.5
  • Higher temperatures in PNW would likely increase
    the frequency of favorable conditions for
    wildfires, a source of PM2.5 pollution (McKenzie
    et al., 2004 Littell 2006)

7
Meteorology Pollen
  • There is growing evidence that elevated
    temperatures contribute to a longer pollen season
    and increased allergenicity of some pollens
    (Beggs, 2004)

8
Meteorology Air Pollution ? temperature ? ?
ground level ozone
  • Form of oxygen O3
  • Not emitted into the atmosphere, but created
    there
  • O2 NOx VOCs
  • ? Ozone (O3)
  • (? evaporative VOCs from fuel injected autos with
    ? temperature)

9
Ozone toxicity
  • Damage airway epithelial cells which results in
    inflammation, an increase in nonspecific airway
    reactivity, and an increase in epithelial
    permeability. Reduced immune defense against
    respiratory infections.
  • Human Studies
  • Upper and lower Airway irritation
  • Pulmonary inflammation
  • Wheezing and breathing difficulties during
    exercise or outdoor activities
  • Aggravation of asthma
  • Increased susceptibility to respiratory illnesses
    like pneumonia and bronchitis
  • Asthma prevalence in children?

10
Climate Change ? Air Quality Health
  • Current Evidence Base (quantitative models)
  • Limited..
  • Most focus on ozone formation (most robust
    connection to future climate/increased
    temperature)
  • Generally, ? T ? ozone
  • Pollen data includes experimental observational
  • Few PM2.5 projection data, variable effects
  • Most health impact assessments assess mortality
    as endpoint
  • Most are global summaries (rather than regional)

11
Quantitative analysis Background
  • Estimate deaths due to ozone in mid-century for
    King and Spokane County
  • ?Ozone priority pollutant of concern in WA,
    most clearly linked with increased temp/climate
    change
  • ?Premature Mortality
  • Most serious outcome
  • Most accessible/accurate
  • Robust evidence base linking ozone and mortality
    multiple locations (US and non US)

12
Methods Study Region
  • King Co, Spokane Co
  • 2 case studies
  • Represent impacts in two densely populated
    eastern/western Washington populations with
    distinct climatologic zones.

13
Methods Risk Assessment Model
  • M(time period-location) (P/100,000) B DR E
  • M - deaths attributable to ozone (mortality)
  • P Population
  • B Baseline mortality rate
  • DR dose-response (increase in mortality per
    increase in ozone)
  • E- Estimated O3 concentrations in each county
    (baseline and mid century decade of 2000s)
  • (adapted from Knowlton et al. Environ Health
    Perspect 200411215571563)

14
Methods P (population)
  • Baseline decade (1997-2006) and mid century
    projected population WA
  • Source WA Office of Financial Management

15
Methods B (baseline mortality rate)
  • Daily deaths rate for King and Spokane County
    (baseline decade 1997-2006)
  • Source WA State Dept of Health

16
Methods E (exposure)
  • Estimate current (baseline) decade and projected
    mid century) 8 hour maximum average O3 (ppb)
    warm season May-Sept
  • E1997-2006 ? E2045-2055
  • WA State Dept of Ecology 1997-2006 data from
    monitoring network for King/Spokane Co.
    Baseline decade daily average was calculated
    (E1997-2006)
  • WSU modelingDerive estimated change in ozone
    concentrations from baseline decade to
    mid-century (?)

17
Based on climate models what is projected
change in ozone concentration in mid century?
  • Dr. Brian Lamb colleagues (WSU)
  • Comprehensive model
  • PCM (Parallel Climate Model)5, MOZART-2 (Model
    for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), MM5
    (Mesoscale Meteorological model), CMAQ (Community
    Multi-scale Air Quality model).
  • Simulate 19901999 (beginning of decade) and
    2045 2054 (mid decade) hourly 8 hour maximum
    ozone concentrations ? ?
  • Resolution 36-km grid cells with boundary
    conditions taken from the global models (abstract
    section overlaps Spokane and King County)
  • 2045-2055 simulation (IPCC) A2 scenario,
    business-as-usual US emission projections and
    projected alterations in land use, land cover
    (LULC) due to urban expansion and changes in
    vegetation.

18
Methods DR (dose-response)
  • Literature review
  • Landmark study of 95 large U.S. urban communities
    made up of almost 40 of the U.S. population
    -including Spokane and Seattle (Bell et al 2004.
    JAMA 2922372-78)
  • Provides estimated national average DR of
    mortality (non-injury mortality and
    cardiopulmonary mortality) associated with
    average ambient ozone concentrations in 1987-2000
  • Per 10 ppb ? daily 8 hour maximum ozone
  • ? All non traumatic mortality 0.80 (95
    confidence interval 0.41-1.18
  • ? cardiopulmonary-specific mortality 0.98
    (0.47- 1.50)

19
Results
  • Modeling framework to estimate delta (estimated
    change in ozone in 2045-2055)
  • 5.8 ppb in King County
  • 6.1 ppb in Spokane County
  • Monitoring data for current decade
  • 8 hour average maximum daily ozone concentrations
    in May-September
  • King County 20.7 ppb
  • Spokane County 35.5 ppb

20
Results Exposure to ozone (E)
21
O3 Summertime (May-Sept) Mortality
22
Conclusions
  • ? projected mid century ozone ? ? projected ozone
    mortality in Spokane King Counties
  • Higher ozone concentrations and higher underlying
    mortality rates in Spokane Co. yielded higher
    current and mid century ozone related mortality
  • Higher projected relative change from current to
    mid century ozone in King Co yielded higher
    relative ? in ozone mortality rate

23
Public Health stakes of climate change response
Losing groundor gaining speed
  • Overall, ambient air concentrations of ozone and
    particulate matter have improved in the last
    decades due to control of emissions
  • If no response to mitigate will climate change
    compromise this progress?
  • Or will action to address climate change deliver
    added value of improved air quality for WA state?

24
Thank you
  • ckarr_at_u.washington.edu

25
(No Transcript)
26
Research Needs Discussion
  • What additional climate information/research
    would be advantageous for future planning?
  • What information/research serves our
    understanding of how to ameliorate or mitigate
    the impacts of climate change?

27
Research needs climate change heat stress
  • How is health care utilization affected during
    heat events? (e.g., hospitalizations, emergency
    department visits)
  • What is impact of heat wave on population
    subgroups with differing vulnerability?
  • Especially Individuals in poverty or who live in
    low-income neighborhoods
  • Rural populations
  • Racial and ethnic minorities
  • Explore possibility of small-area analysis to
    more closely link heat extremes with mortality
  • Explore need for and potential efficacy of
    recommended adaptation measures

28
Research Needs climate change air quality
  • Develop range of climate ozone projections
    reflecting varied assumptions re population
    growth, emission changes, land use changes
  • How does future policy making influence these?
  • What is impact on other health outcomes? (e.g.
    respiratory hospitalization, asthma prevalence,
    cardiovascular disease events)
  • What are impacts on population subgroups with
    differing vulnerability?
  • Develop robust regional scale projections for
    PM2.5 and apply to health risk studies

29
Research needs
  • Assess climate change impacts on public health
    via food and water borne illness, vector born
    disease, traumatic injury due to extreme weather
    events
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