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Economic confrontations and strategies of power

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Title: Economic confrontations and strategies of power


1
Economic confrontations and strategies of power
  • by Christian Harbulot
  • Director of the École de Guerre Économique,
  • the School of Economic Warfare in Paris
  • Associated Director within the cabinetC4ifr

2
Bibliographical references
  • Collective publication under the direction of
    Christian Harbulot and Didier Lucas, Does France
    have a strategy of economic power? avril 2004.
  • Robert Kagan, The Power and the weakness, the
    United States and Europe in the new world order,
    Plon, 2003.
  • Collective publication under the direction of
    Christian Harbulot and Didier Lucas, the
    cognitive war, éditions Lavauzelle, 2002.

3
Going beyond of the thought of Clausewitz
  • "If the military war imposed itself as the
    continuation of the policy by other means, the
    economic and cognitive wars prove to be the
    perpetuation of the war - and thus of the policy
    - by other means that physical violence."
  • Eric Delbecque
  • Ways of the power

4
Strategy cycles
  • A long cycle which can be illustrated by the
    victory of the young American Republic over
    Europe. In two centuries, the United States have
    overtaken world supremacy from the European
    colonial empires.
  • An average cycle which can be described by the
    way in which the United States take into account
    since the year 1990 the rise to power of China on
    the international scene.
  • A short cycle symbolized by the conflicts of low
    or average intensity as it was the case with the
    last war in Iraq.

5
The beginning of another History
  • Change of course of 1989 and not of 2001
  • Cohabitation of the two worlds
  • - the United States vis-a-vis the rest of the
    world
  • - Multipolar powers (China, Russia, India)
  • The risk of strategic inertia
  • - 50 years in the wake of the american economy
  • - The refusal to change paradigm

6
The 5 fields of power
  • Military
  • Diplomatic
  • Cultural
  • Geoeconomics
  • Informational

7
Economic power and informational cultures
Subsistence economies Protection of the
asset Vital spaces economies Commercial
conquest Imperial" economies Informational
supremacy Market economies Turn around the rules
Ressources economies Economic War Parallel
Economies Illegal economy Block
economies Economic security
Electronic trade Total information control
8
The three chess-boards
  • The geoeconomic chess board
  • The chess board of the competitors
  • The chess board of the civil society

9
The analyse grids
10
Which strategies of power?
  • The old reference marks on the concept of power
  • the  pré carrés  (IVè Republic)
  • National independance (De Gaulle)
  • Concept of critical size (Pompidou,Balladur)
  • The new reference marks
  • The concept of key-sector
  • The problem of increasing power
  • The concept of grand strategy

11
American priorities in the geoeconomic field
  • The defense of the economic interests of the
    United States is the priority n1 of the American
    foreign politics (Bill Clinton, 1994)
  • Allies can be potential, specific or durable
    adversaries economic
  • The seek for strategic supremacy implies the
    development of overall influence policies
  • The American liberal state is directing more
    than the French colbertist state in the conquest
    of the external markets

12
The essential questions
  • How to increase the economic power of a country
    in times of peace?
  • Which strategies can be applied?
  • How to leave the framework independance /
    dependancy?
  • Est-il possible de promouvoir une politique
    déquilibre des échanges tout en conquérant des
    parts de marché ?
  • Is it possible to promote a policy of equal
    exchange and still conqueror market shares?
  • Which orchestration is it necessary to create a
    public/privat complicity?
  • How to deploy durable influence strategies in
    foreign countries?

13
Companies and the interest of power
  • The false debate The national economic interests
    are diluted in the globalization
  • A report of the American Congress precises
  • "the multinational firms should be regarded as
    American if and when they act in the national
    interest, and as American companies they should
    be the target of detailed attention"

14
A defensive vision of the national interest
  • Resulting from the context of the cold war
    (omerta on dividing points of the Western block)
  • Safeguarding of the pre square (raw materials,
    agriculture, industries of defense, energy,
    transport, aeronautics, space sector?)
  • Schedule of 1959 on economic Defense
  • Concept of protection of the inheritance,
    unbearable dependencies and competitiveness of
    the companies

15
Errors of grid interpretation
  • The failure of the French strategy for the
    computer industry
  • - the strategy of independence vis-a-vis the
    strategy of conquest of the world
  • market
  • - the impossibility to counter the cultural
    surrounding
  • The non-perception of the stake of power
    concerning the smart card
  • the responsibility of the theory of the  heart
    of a profession 
  • the drifts of French liberalism
  • The late taking into account of the importance
    of the investment funds
  • unhooking in the locking of the financial
    instruments
  • the surprise by the Carayon Rapport

16
For a new approach of the economic power
  • End of fatalism
  • Restrictive concept of competitiveness of the
    companies
  • New territories of search for power in
    information technologies, biotechnology's,
    knowledge industry, health industry, security
    industry
  • New dimension of the policy and the civil
    society in the decision-making process at the
    sides of the companies

17
Cleavages between politics and economy
  • Laffaire SANOFI / Aventis
  • the autism of the employers about the interest
    of power
  • the slow awakening of the finance inspection
  • retrograde ideas of the MEDEF
  • Not taking into consideration the strategic
    allied grids
  • purchase of Kroll by a big American insurance
    group
  • No French response

18
Research orientation of the LaregeTowards a
competitive matrix of power
  • Phase of
  • Decline
  • Preservation
  • Development

Ration of Strong against weak Weak against
strong
  • In a Context
  • Global
  • Regional
  • Local

Strategic
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