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Inventing the Future


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Title: Inventing the Future

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Inventing the Future
  • Dan Reed
  • Chancellors Eminent Professor
  • Senior Advisor for Strategy and Innovation
  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
  • Director, Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI)

Presentation Outline
The future is here, it is just not evenly
distributed. William Gibson
  • Parables and predictions
  • Exponentials and linear thinking
  • Consilience challenges
  • Science policy and the third tsunami
  • Personalized medicine an exemplar
  • Renaissance examples
  • Parables redux

The Importance of Will
  • In which year of birth (1930 or 1970) would
    you have the higher probability of walking on the

The Power of Dreams
Between them, the five engines were now
vaporizing fifteen tons of liquid a second ...
From four miles away, the scene was mystifying,
surreal. The rocket moved, it seemed to
levitate, inching upward on a tower of
incandescent fire but there was no sound
And then ... the shock wave flashed across and
thudded into the chests of the spectators and
shook the ground beneath their feet ... To a
million souls who watched dumbstruck as the great
machine ascended, there could not have been the
slightest doubt that this thing was leaving the
planet. Ascent to the Moon
Ten Years Past
  • Looking back, in the public mind
  • there were few or no experiences with
  • web sites, email, spam, phishing, computer
  • e-commerce, digital photography or telephony
  • digital job off-shoring
  • cell phones were rare and expensive
  • a Sony Walkman was state of the art
  • CDs were still pretty cool
  • WiFi was almost unknown
  • MySpace was your apartment
  • What will the future bring?

Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic. Arthur C. Clarke
Imagine a Future Where
  • Your car drives and navigates for you
  • and also parks the car (already a 2007 Lexus
  • Your sound system only plays music you love
  • because it knows about every song youve ever
  • Your phone only rings when you want to answer
  • because it knows your emotional state
  • Your body calls an ambulance when youre ill
  • via implanted, biologically powered diagnostic
  • Your DNA sample determines personalized treatment
  • because genotype-phenotype models are specific
  • Your office adjusts its behavior to your needs
  • because it is smarter than you are

Imagine a Future Where
  • Your every physical movement is tracked/logged
  • by embedded sensors on all human artifacts
  • Your neighbors know all the books you read
  • because your electronic financial identity was
  • Your every call is monitored for content
  • by deep semantic analysis and logging
  • Your utilities fail due to a virus attack
  • because security was penetrated by a 10 year
  • Your DNA sample/lifestyle determine health cost
  • because you are targeted as a high risk
  • Cyberwar destroys U.S. financial institutions
  • because U.S. lacks ability to construct IT

The Danger of Predictions
  • A century ago
  • average U.S. life expectancy was less than 50
  • mean annual income was only a few hundred dollars
  • less than 10 percent of houses had a telephone
  • only a few hundred cars were on the roads
  • We did get
  • Scotch tape and crossword puzzles
  • canned beer and iced tea
  • self-heating coffee
  • But, we never got
  • the flying cars
  • the underwater cities
  • those shiny plastimetal clothes

Presentation Outline
The future is here, it is just not evenly
distributed. William Gibson
  • Parables and predictions
  • Exponentials and linear thinking
  • Consilience challenges
  • Science policy and the third tsunami
  • Personalized medicine an exemplar
  • Renaissance examples
  • Parables redux

Computing ExponentialsA Black Hole Example
1963 Hahn and Lindquist IBM 7090 One
Processor Each 0.2 MF 3 Hours
1977 Eppley and Smarr CDC 7600 One Processor Each
35 MF 5 Hours
1999 Seidel and Suen, et al. NCSA SGI Origin 256
Processors Each 500 MF 40 Hours
2001 Seidel et al NCSA Pentium III 256
Processors Each 1 GF 500,000 Hours total plus
500,000 hours at NERSC
Storage The Exponentials
  • Megabyte
  • a small novel
  • Gigabyte
  • a pickup truck filled with paper or a DVD
  • Terabyte one thousand gigabytes 500 today
  • the text in one million books
  • entire U.S. Library of Congress is ten terabytes
    of text
  • Petabyte one thousand terabytes
  • 1-2 petabytes equals all academic research
    library holdings
  • coming soon to a pocket near you!
  • soon routinely generated annually by many
    scientific instruments
  • Exabyte one thousand petabytes
  • 5 exabytes of words spoken in the history of

Source Hal Varian, UC-Berkeley
Mosaic A Revolutionary Spark
  • December 8, 1993, C Section (Front Page)
  • John Markoff, A Free and Simple Computer Link -
    NCSA's Mosaic Program

The Six Computing Eras
  • Big Iron (post WW II)
  • vacuum tubes and campy science fiction movies
  • Mainframe (60s/70s)
  • spinning tapes and bad science fiction movies
  • Workstations (70s/80s)
  • spinning disks and Star Trek
  • PCs (80s/90s)
  • spinning CDs and Jurassic Park
  • Internet (90s)
  • spinning DVDs and Internet pet food companies ?
  • Implicit computing (21st century)
  • IPods and The Matrix
  • embedded intelligence in everyday objects
  • number of processors/person ? infinity

Explosive Sensor Growth
  • Technology drivers
  • wireless communications
  • embedded processors
  • Electronic tags and intelligent objects
  • tags on everyday things (and individuals)
  • secure, inexpensive and disposable
  • RFID, smart dust,
  • Smart cars
  • OBD II standard/Controller Area Network
  • Bluetooth, navigation, active cruise control
  • EFI and variable timing
  • road tracking, drowsy warning
  • entertainment (roadcasting)
  • Medical devices
  • capsule endoscopy, ECG, pacemakers,

Dan TV Microsoft SenseCam
  • Metrics
  • light, XYZ acceleration
  • temperature, infrared

Canberra, Australia
The Blurred Infosphere
Presentation Outline
The future is here, it is just not evenly
distributed. William Gibson
  • Parables and predictions
  • Exponentials and linear thinking
  • Consilience challenges
  • Science policy and the third tsunami
  • Personalized medicine an exemplar
  • Renaissance examples
  • Parables redux

Science 2020
  • In the last two decades advances in computing
    technology, from processing speed to network
    capacity and the Internet, have revolutionized
    the way scientists work.
  • From sequencing genomes to monitoring the
    Earth's climate, many recent scientific advances
    would not have been possible without a parallel
    increase in computing power - and with
    revolutionary technologies such as the quantum
    computer edging towards reality, what will the
    relationship between computing and science bring
    us over the next 15 years?

Unanswered Physical Questions
  • The Standard Model
  • quantum theory
  • electroweak and strong forces
  • Gravity and relativity
  • no Grand Unified Theory
  • gravity integration and rationale for mass
  • Dark matter and dark energy
  • most of the universes mass is invisible
  • expansion is accelerating
  • Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe
  • universe is 13,700 billion years old
  • Computing insights
  • LSST, LHC and QCD

Multilevel In Silico Biology
  • Signaling networks
  • environmental triggers and behavior
  • e.g., cell lifecycle
  • different pathways in each tissue type
  • Metabolic networks
  • measurable products in pathway
  • Protein interaction networks
  • localization of proteins that interact for
  • protein-protein interactions for specific actions
  • Gene regulatory networks
  • many things affect gene product concentration
  • nucleic-nucleic, protein-nucleic interactions
  • Computing insights
  • MEMS, models and data

21st Century Discovery
  • The three fold way
  • theory
  • experiment
  • computational analysis
  • Supported by
  • multimodal collaboration systems
  • distributed, multi-petabyte data archives
  • leading edge computing systems
  • distributed experimental facilities
  • distributed multidisciplinary teams
  • Socialization and community
  • multidisciplinary groups
  • geographic distribution
  • new enabling technologies
  • creation of 21st century IT infrastructure
  • sustainable, multidisciplinary communities

Culture Clash
Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP)
  • White argues that astronomers are straying
    from the true beauty of the field the study of
    unusual objects in the sky into the realm of
    mere measurement.

Consilience Its More Than Science
  • Every college student should be able to
    answer the following question What is the
    relation between science and the humanities, and
    how is it important for human welfare? Every
    public intellectual and political leader should
    be able to answer that as well. Most of the
    issues that vex humanity daily cannot be solved
    without integrating knowledge from the natural
    sciences with that of the social sciences and

E.O. Wilson
Presentation Outline
The future is here, it is just not evenly
distributed. William Gibson
  • Parables and predictions
  • Exponentials and linear thinking
  • Consilience challenges
  • Science policy and the third tsunami
  • Personalized medicine an exemplar
  • Renaissance examples
  • Parables redux

Tofflers Three Waves
  • First wave
  • the agrarian, post hunter-gather culture
  • Second wave
  • the mass production society, after the industrial
  • Third wave
  • the post-industrial society of mass customization
    and accelerating change

The Tsunami Is Here
  • Globalizationgrowing interconnectedness
    reflected in the expanded flows of information,
    technology, capital, goods, services, and people
    throughout the worldwill become an overarching
    megatrend, a force so ubiquitous that it will
    substantially shape all other major trends in the
    world of 2020.
  • Project 2020
  • National Intelligence Council

A History Lesson (Not What Youd Think)
Public/Private Pressures
Innovate America
  • Scientists will make breakthroughs.
    Engineers will devise new technologies. Business
    will make these new ideas available to improve
    the way people live their lives. The only
    question is Will America lead or follow?

U.S. NITRD Program
  • Chartered in the 1991 High-Performance Computing
  • Fourteen member agencies
  • OSD and services research organizations
  • Approximately 3.1 billion (2007) budget
  • Overall coordination by the Subcommittee on NITRD
  • Reporting to the Committee on Technology of the
    National Science and Technology Council (NSTC)
  • Supported by NITRD National Coordination Office
  • Eight Program Component Areas (PCAs)

U.S. NITRD Program Evaluations
  • PITACs 1999 overall assessment
  • Information Technology Research Investing in Our
  • During 2003-2005, focused PITAC assessments
  • health care and IT, cybersecurity
  • computational science
  • PCAST 2007 review
  • successor to 1999 assessment

  • Key themes
  • address demand for IT professionals
  • revamp curricula, increase fellowships
  • simplify visa processes
  • emphasize larger-scale, longer term
  • multidisciplinary IT RD
  • innovative, higher-risk research
  • give priority to RD in four areas
  • systems connected with the physical world
  • software, digital data, networking
  • Continuing emphasis on others
  • high-end computing, cybersecurity, HCI
  • NIT and the social sciences
  • develop/implement strategic and technical plans

George Scalise (SIA) Dan Reed, co-chairs Review.pdf
Displacement, Velocity and Acceleration
  • Remember basic calculus
  • Displacement
  • current position
  • Velocity
  • rate of position change
  • Acceleration
  • rate of velocity change
  • We are losing the race
  • risk averse, siloed approaches
  • cultural inhibitions
  • poorly educated population

Sources UNESCO Federal Statistical Office of
American University Evolution
  • Colonial era
  • Latin and Greek fluency
  • curricula derived from English model
  • medieval trivium (grammar, logic, rhetoric)
  • quadrivium (arithmetic, geometry, astronomy,
  • Land Grants and the Morrill Act
  • to teach such branches of learning as are
    related to agriculture and the mechanic arts to
    promote the liberal and practical education of
    the industrial classes in the several pursuits
    and professions in life

American University Evolution
  • Vannevar Bush and World War II Science
  • our defense against aggression demands new
    knowledge so that we can develop new and improved
    weapons. This essential, new knowledge can be
    obtained only through basic scientific research
  • G.I. Bill
  • college or vocational education
  • college degrees awarded doubled (1940-50)
  • Sputnik Scare and the NDEA
  • more scientists and engineers
  • college loans, foreign language instruction
  • graduate fellowships

Evolving University Roles
  • American university eras
  • pre and post-colonial
  • land grant, post World War II
  • in the 21st century, the fourth wave
  • Universities the knowledge business!
  • creation, preservation, transmission, and
  • IT is about knowledge management and creation
  • education and research
  • service and business processes
  • A new compact with the citizens
  • knowledge economy leverage
  • value chain enhancement
  • lifelong education and competitiveness

The Standard Computing Syllabus
Presentation Outline
The future is here, it is just not evenly
distributed. William Gibson
  • Parables and predictions
  • Exponentials and linear thinking
  • Consilience challenges
  • Science policy and the third tsunami
  • Personalized medicine an exemplar
  • Renaissance examples
  • Parables redux

Medical Care and Complexity
Source CMS_at_HHS
Source Robert Kolodner, ONC
Genotyping Making It Personal
Genetic Conundrums
Genetics Gets Personal
Personalized, Genetic Medicine
  • Minimally, several data elements
  • family histories, genetic profile
  • lifestyle characterization
  • environmental factors
  • outcome-driven biomarkers
  • genetic, proteins, metabolites, labs
  • Technologies
  • inexpensive medical testing
  • integrated, portable EMR
  • mobile, wireless sensors
  • data mining and analysis

Informed Consent
Warfarin (Coumadin) Dosing
  • Individual dose variability
  • from limited effect to pronounced bleeding
  • variable interval for effects manifestation
  • Dose now adjusted based on
  • age, BMI, co-morbidities and medications
  • accounts for 20-25 variability
  • Genetic analysis 50 variability prediction
  • Gene examples
  • CYP 2C9
  • metabolic uptake
  • VKORC1
  • coagulation

Source Marshfield Clinic
The Sign on the Hospital Door
  • Please be advised that this hospital uses
    manual, paper-based methods for tracking the
    process of your care and for implementing the
    orders of your care providers. Therefore, many
    orders that your doctors initiate will not be
    carried out as written. As a result, you may
    regrettably receive the wrong medicine, the wrong
    dose of the right medicine, via the wrong route
    of administration, or at the wrong time.

The Instrumented Life
  • Biological (static and dynamic)
  • DNA sequence and polymorphisms (static)
  • gene expression levels
  • biomarkers (proteins, metabolites, physiological
  • Environmental
  • air and pollutants, particulates
  • bacterial and viral distributions
  • food and liquids
  • mobility and exercise
  • Sociodynamic (physical and virtual)
  • spatial dynamics
  • context and interactions
  • electronic infosphere

The Instrumented Life
  • Ethical/legal
  • privacy and use
  • survivability
  • Economics
  • deployment and decisions
  • Technical
  • standards and sharing
  • adaptive feedback/control
  • Biological
  • behavior and treatment

I was thinking to myself this could be heaven
or this could be hell. The Eagles
Presentation Outline
The future is here, it is just not evenly
distributed. William Gibson
  • Parables and predictions
  • Exponentials and linear thinking
  • Consilience challenges
  • Science policy and the third tsunami
  • Personalized medicine an exemplar
  • Renaissance examples
  • Parables redux

Renaissiance Computing Institute
  • Objectives
  • create benefit in a competitive world
  • engage industry and academia
  • couple with government and citizens
  • Four target areas
  • public benefit
  • supporting disaster response,
  • economic development
  • helping people with innovative ideas
  • research engagement
  • catalyzing projects
  • increasing success
  • building multidisciplinary partnerships
  • education and outreach
  • providing hands on experiences
  • broadening participation

Virtual Organizations and Disasterv
Environment and Natural Resources (Coastal
Commerce (Energy)
Health and Human Services
Federal Agencies
Center for Geographic Information
Source Ken Gallupi, Ray Idazsak
RENCI Disaster Response
High-Resolution Forecast Model
WRF Preprocessing System (WPS)
Graphics Post-processing
NC EcoNet
Brunswick Sensors
Flooding Sensors
RENCI Mobile Micro Rain Radar
Radar Reflectivity
Storm Surge and Flood Maps
Physical Meets Virtual
Source Mike Conway/RENCI
The RENCI/TeraGrid Bioportal
  • Complex workflows
  • distributed data access, Gene2Life
  • complex disease,
  • Fault tolerance

Protein Interaction Visualization
  • Yeast, mouse and human homologs

Source Hong Yi/RENCI
Hap Sample Data Synthesis
  • 1000 simulated chromosomes

Out-Patient Health Monitoring System
  • OHMS is a catalyst for
  • research, quality of life
  • economic development

Information Visualization
Document Relationships Kathy Blake, UNC
Document Relationships Jeff Heard, NCSU
Internet Traffic Ray Idazsak, RENCI
Supernova Shockwave John Blondin, NCSU
The Path to Sustained Petascale
  • The numbers
  • 5-20 PF peak
  • 250K-2M cores
  • 0.5-5 PB DRAM
  • 20-100 PB disk
  • 10-20 MW power
  • Joules law
  • dominates Moores law

HPC Power and Reliability
  • Sensors for machine rooms
  • air ducts, racks, servers,
  • vibration, temperature and humidity
  • Goals
  • implement a power triage tool
  • provide guidance for autotuning
  • develop adaptive power reflection

Mote Sensor Locations
Light Load
Source Rob Fowler/Alan Porterfield/Shobana Ravi
Node Failure Challenges
  • Bathtub failure model
  • not always accurate
  • Simple checkpointing helps
  • optimum interval is roughly
  • where ? is time to complete a checkpoint
  • M is the time before failure
  • R is the restart time due to lost work
  • HAPI and FIT
  • responsive detection and recovery
  • Health Application Programming Interface (HAPI)
  • ACPI and SMART support
  • Failure Indicator Toolkit (FIT)
  • measure failure indicators and predict likely

Threshold/Rank Sum Predictors
Exponential/Weibull Failure Models
Data Source Interface
NWS Data Transport
Health API (HAPI)
Scalable Performance Analysis
  • SPMD models create behavioral equivalence classes
  • most tasks perform similar functions
  • most tasks have similar performance
  • Sampling theory and measurement
  • extract data from representative nodes
  • compute metrics across representatives
  • balance volume and statistical accuracy
  • Estimate mean with confidence 1-? and error bound
  • select a random sample of size n from population
    of size N
  • Stratified sampling
  • samples must track changing variance
  • number of subpopulations also vary
  • fixed subpopulations (time series)
  • random subpopulations (independence)

Sampling Must Be Unbiased!
which approaches for large populations
Source Todd Gamblin
Economic Divergence/Optimization
  • /teraflop-year
  • declining rapidly
  • /developer-year
  • rising rapidly
  • Applications outlive systems
  • by many years
  • Machine-synthesized and managed software
  • getting cheaper and more feasible
  • Feedback directed optimization
  • an older, based on run-time data
  • increasingly blurred compilation/execution
  • deep optimization (hours, days, weeks )

Presentation Outline
The future is here, it is just not evenly
distributed. William Gibson
  • Parables and predictions
  • Exponentials and linear thinking
  • Consilience challenges
  • Science policy and the third tsunami
  • Personalized medicine an exemplar
  • Renaissance examples
  • Parables redux

Expeditions Vision and Opportunity
Image Source Frank Hurley
Image source
Never for me the lowered banner, never the
last endeavor. Sir Ernest Shackleton
30M Lunar X Prize
  • To win the Google Lunar X PRIZE, a team must
    successfully land a privately funded craft on the
    lunar surface and survive long enough to complete
    the mission goals of roaming about the lunar
    surface for at least 500 meters and sending a
    defined data package, called a Mooncast, back
    to Earth.

For the Price of an SUV Picosatellite Kit
  • Dont leave Earth without it.
  • Attributes
  • 10K-40K construction cost and 50K launch
  • secondary payload on commercial launcher
  • 10 cm cube (one liter) to 10x10x30 cm
  • industry standard PC-104 boards
  • See

Your Personal Risk/Reward Ratio?
  • What probability of successful return would
    you accept to be the first human to set foot on