Simobiz%20Business%20Game%20-%20Mobile%20Telecom%20Markets%20Presentation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Simobiz%20Business%20Game%20-%20Mobile%20Telecom%20Markets%20Presentation
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Simobiz Business Game - Mobile Telecom Markets Presentation 09/2003 Michel Berne Institut national des T l communications, Evry, France michel.berne_at_int-evry.fr – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: Simobiz%20Business%20Game%20-%20Mobile%20Telecom%20Markets%20Presentation
1
SimobizBusiness Game - Mobile Telecom
MarketsPresentation
- 09/2003
- Michel Berne
- Institut national des Télécommunications, Evry,
France - michel.berne_at_int-evry.fr
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Outline
- The Simobiz Project
- Simobiz Model
- Hypothesis
- Computation modules market, networks, HR,
finance - Print-outs
- Simulations
- Conclusions perspectives
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Presentation
- Simobiz is a business simulation game on mobile
networks and markets - Developed by a team at INT Jean-Michel Sahut
(project manager), Michel Berne (technical
coordinator), Rasto Kulich (PhD student) - SGES
Dpt - Intitially funded through a GET project with
ENSTBr and the University of Zilina (Slovakia) - First product Stratmob designed for France
Telecom RD - Simobiz developed 2002/2003 (under code name
Mobilix)
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Timeline
- Summer 2000 project definition
- Fall 2000-Fall 2001 1st model built
- Winter 2001-2002 Main model built
- Spring 2002 tests
- End 2002 commercial launch
- At 30/6/03 5 main sessions, 81 participants
- Perspectives 2003/2004 8 sessions planned for 3
institutions and more than 120 participants - Under consideration to be included in the program
of the ITU Centers of Excellence
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Development Guidelines
- Flexibility, technology-neutral
- Learning-oriented
- Trade-off playability / realism
- Modular easy to maintain
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Features (1)
- 3 operators each operator can offer 4 service
plans x 4 mobile terminals - 2 network types (GSM UMTS)
- 2 market segments (each with 2 sub-segments)
- 2 geographic zones (eg cities, countryside)
- 8 simulation periods (1 period 1 year)
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Features (2)
- Simobiz is fully flexible
- economic environment, demographics, geography
- technology
- regulation
- labor market, financial markets
- Simobiz can be used at various levels
- Network, HR, Finance blocks can be switched
off - Simulations
- Simobiz support tools are availaible return on
investment, EBITDA
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Features (3) Scenario
- Simobiz is played according to pre-defined
scenarios - description of the country hosting the
simulation - new technologies introduction timeline
- including supplementary exercises UMTS
auctions negotiations with bankers and
regulator MVNO etc. - Depending on the goals set (pedagogic goals
simulation)
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Finally...
- Simobiz contains several dozens structural
equations several hundreds accounting
equations several hundreds parameters - Using a Systems Analysys approach
- Supported by quantitative research
- Implemented as a Microsoft Excel workfile for
easy maintenance and portability - to be used in class / short courses distant
support available
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Model Architecture
Marketing
HR
Network
Finance
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Block 1 Game Core
- Diffusion function ( contagion )
- Operator service plans
- Customer satisfaction function
- Market Share function (Logit-like)
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Block 1 Game Core
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Diffusion
- Equiped individuals will contaminate
non-equiped through contact contamined
individuals may buy. - This effect is reinforced by advertising and
distribution expenses - Telecom budget of individuals depends on their
income, service quality, number of users (club
effect)
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Operators Service Plans (1)
- 16 packs (4 plans) x (4 terminals)
- Catalogue including 10 mobiles, updated yearly
- Catalogue including 10 value-added services
packs, updated yeary - Service Plans
- GSM (basic), GPRS, EDGE, UMTS (basic)
further versions possible - (annual subscription) price/minute
(GSM) or price/MByte (UMTS) - Each terminal, each plan has a quality index
used by customers
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Operators Service Plans (2)
- For one or two geographic zones (part coverage
possible) - Do not require building its own network (MVNO
possible)
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Satisfaction function
- Each consumer has a limited budget
- She/He computes her/his satisfaction provided by
each pack (terminal/plan) of each operator
(including a fixed line) - Satisfaction depends on prices and quality of
terminals and plans - and on advertising and distribution efforts of
operators
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Market share function
- Luce model (Multinomial Logit variant)
- A consumer has a high probability of choosing the
pack giving him/her the highest satisfaction - And a decreasing probability of choosing less and
less satisfying packs - This function is realistic, controllable, stable
includes a feature to control churn
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Block 2 Networks
- 1 GSM ( GPRS, EDGE) network, 1 UMTS network per
operator and per zone - Simplified network planning (for GSM TRX, BTS,
BSC, MSC, GGSN/SGSN) on the basis of traffic
forecasts (outgoing and incoming) made by
operators all other network elements are rented
to the fixed line operator - Each zone is made of downtown, suburban and rural
areas in variable proportion.
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Block 2 Networks
- Network deployment can be limited by available
frequency bands - Network quality index are computed
maintenance, coverage, - Distinction offered/carried/sold traffic MVNO
possible
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Block 2 Networks
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Block 3 Human Resources
- 6 categories (maximum) for staff
- Employees/supervisors/managersTechnical/Marketing
- Detailed personnel management (hires,
resignations, promotions, transfers) - Optimal staffing computed by the model for
each category - Labor quality index including staffing,
training, experience...
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Block 3 Human Resources
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Block 4 Finance
- Detailed income statement
- Balance sheet
- Statement of sources and uses of funds
- Cash management
- Debt management (long term and short term)
- Fiscal policies
- Dividend policy
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Block 4 Finance
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Other results
- Commercial ARPU, Churn, Terminals sales
(global, per zone and market segment), brand
value etc. - Network default rate, congestion (hourly, with
transfer of blocked calls to free periods) - Human Resources turnover, seniority
- Share price
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Example network congestion
M Erlangs
hours
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Business Simulations
- Simobiz can also be used for simulation purposes
- Pricing schemes (handset subsidies, prepaid)
- Human resources management
- Business plans
- Transitions
- RPP-CPP
- GSM-GPRS
- GSM-UMTS
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Example Price simulation
- with 2 prepaid operators and prices varying 0,005
to 3 Euro/minute - Subscribers millions
- Profit million Euros
- ARPU Euro/month
0,005 0,1 1 3
Price/minute (log scale)
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Conclusions - Uses
- Pedagogic benefits for advanced students and
executive education - integration and consistency of decisions made in
the main business functions - study of technological diffusion
- study of key phases in business planning
- group work under stress...
- Simulations
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Conclusions - Perspectives
- Now creation of new scenarios
- Short-term
- distance use tools
- academic cooperation
- Long-term extension to other telecom services
(WLL etc.) is possible - Long-term adaptation to other network services
(pay-TV, banking etc.)
