Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) and Adaptive Management Research : Challenges in Japan - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title: Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) and Adaptive Management Research : Challenges in Japan


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Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM)
andAdaptive Management Research Challenges in
Japan

• Norio Okada
• Professor, DPRI, Kyoto University
• International Workshop on Global Environmental
  Change and Integrated Risk Governance
• June 5, 2007 at Beijing Normal University

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Prelude (1)

• In a seashore town in Japan facing multiple
  disaster risks including Tsunami
• Facing more like the need for environmental and
  landscape management for a better quality of life
  concerns among people
• How can we be better prepared and actually
  implement before Tsunami hits them?

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A worthwhile trial

• Do it small and adaptively, not just knowing
  better but doing nothing.
• Combine different policies and countermeasures!
• For example , grow a costal greenbelt for Tsunami
  risk reduction and landscape and environmental
  management.
• Link it together with urban/landuse management
  and tourism development.
• There are many stakeholders. Participatory
  approach is need.

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Prelude (2)

• In Nagoya-Shizuoka (Tokai) Metropolitan Region
  under Tokai-Tonankai Earthquake
• risk
• How can concerned governmental bodies work
  together creatively and imaginatively in order to
  get better prepared and to implement effective
  mitigation countermeasures ?

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POLICY SIMULATORS FOR ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC
IMPACTS CASE STUDY ON TOKAI-TONANKAI EARTHQUAKE
IN JAPAN

• Hirokazu Tatano and Norio Okada, DPRI, Kyoto
  University

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Introduction

• Contribution of Transportation Network to
  Regional/National Economy
• - Business Trips (e.g. Tokyo Regional
  Cities)
• Disaster Risk of Transportation
• - Risk of regions isolated from peripheries
• - Activities through regions will
  influence on their ordinary economic activities
• - network redundancy a key

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A Case Study for Plate-border typeEarthquake
Tokai/To-Nankai Earthquake
Were HERE!!
Tokai
To-Nankai
Nankai
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14 Zones for Loss Estimation
4.Yamanashi 5.Shizuoka 6.Toyama 7.Ishikawa
8.Aichi 9.Mie 10.Gifu
1.Hokkaido
2.Tohoku
11. Kinki
12.Chugoku
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6
10
4
3.Kanto
8
5
9
13.Shikoku
14.Kyushu Okinawa
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Dataset

• Interregional I-O table among 9 Regions
  (3/13/27/46 sectors)
• Prefectural I-O tables (by all 47 pref.s with
  some scales of sectors)
• Interregional Net Passenger Flow
• Distribution Census to Decompose I-O zones into
  Prefectural Level
• Highway and Railway Timetables Scenario

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Highway Network
Central city of each region
Boundary of the zones
Osaka
Nagoya
Tokyo
Shizuoka
Scenario I Scenario II


To-Mei Exp.way

Chuo Exp.way
?
Alternative Route
?
?
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Railroad Network
Scenario I Scenario II


Tokaido Shinkansen

Chuo Line
?
Alternative Route
?
?
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Calibration Results with Respect to Trade
Coefficient from Interregional Commodity Flow
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Transport-related Losses Results
(bil. yen/day)
II
I one major route is disrupted. II two major
routes are disrupted.
I
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The Losses by Transportation Mode
(bil. yen/day)
Mutual Dependencies between Highways and Railways
e.g. in scenario I, II, 18.5 gt 9.9 8.1 36.4 gt
23.2 12.8 In the same way, 23.3 gt 9.9
12.8 31.8 gt 23.2 8.1
Railroad Disruption scenario
II
I
No disruption
II
I
No disruption
Highway Disruption scenario
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Network Redundancy

• Previous result shows the importance of keeping
  Chuo Exp.way (Chuo route) available
• (Total Losses of Scenario 2) 36.4 bil.yen/day
• (Total Losses of Scenario 1) 18.5 bil.yen/day
• 17.9
  bil.yen/day
• Reinforcing, or keeping Another Detour
• ?better than existing detour routes in service
• For This Case,
• ?Highway Route 158 Upgrading to Expressway
• ?Railroad Shinkansen Network extending to
  Hokuriku regions

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Model Sensitivity -1

• Transit Time Change of INTRA-regional Flow
• Loss Estimation with Several TT55 (Shizuoka
  pref.)

(bil. yen/day)
100 up, 50 up, 10 up Base
case, -10 down, -50 down, -100 down
Hokkaido Kanto Shizuoka
Ishikawa Aichi
Kinki Shikoku
Tohoku Yamanashi Toyama
Gifu Mie
Chugoku Kyushu
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Model Sensitivity -2

• Traffic Congestion of Main Detour
• 
  (Chuo Exp.Way)

(bil. yen/day)
Base case, 5 up, 10 up, 20 up
Hokkaido Kanto Shizuoka
Ishikawa Aichi
Kinki Shikoku
Tohoku Yamanashi Toyama
Gifu Mie
Chugoku Kyushu
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Highway Network
Central city of each region
Boundary of the zones
Osaka
Nagoya
Tokyo
Shizuoka
Scenario I Scenario II


To-Mei Exp.way

Chuo Exp.way
?
Alternative Route
?
?
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Upgrade of Network Scenario
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Upgrade of Network Result
(bil. yen/day)
II
III With Upgraded Segments of
Highway/Railway Network
I
III
Hokkaido Kanto Shizuoka
Ishikawa Aichi
Kinki Shikoku
Tohoku Yamanashi Toyama
Gifu Mie
Chugoku Kyushu
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Prelude (3)

• In a small village, Hayase, Chizu, Tottori, Japan
• Village people have recently done it beautifully
  to demonstrate how integrated disaster risk
  management solves it as a set of problem solving
  practice.
• Landslide risk has been reduced collaboratively
  by the two direct stakeholders (land owner and
  potential victim), as well as the town
  government, and the communitys self-management
  association.
• All shared some of the risks, costs, and benefits
  (visible as well as invisible-enhanced capacity)

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A challenge under way

• Let us set up a communication platform (adaptive
  management study group) and involve concerned
  policy makers and administrators.
• Scientists develop policy development simulators
  combined with hazard-vulnerability-loss
  estimation simulators.
• Let all participate and discuss a broader and
  comprehensive policy priority-setting such as
• highway/railway route-section prioritization,
  retrofitting/reinforcing policy choices, etc.
• ?
• Communicative survey and Collaborative
  Modeling
• Development of Ima-simulation and
  Ima-simulators

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Communication Live together
Vitae system
Simultaneously satisfied
Vita Functional Integration
Survivability Become alive
Vitality Live lively
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Conviviality Live together
Vitae system Integrated Urban Management
Conventional Urban Planning Domain Opportunity Gro
w-ability
Conventional Disaster Planning Domain Threat Vulne
rability
Vitality Live lively
Survivability Become alive
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Where is Hayase village, Chizu-cho, Tottori,
Japan?
Chizu-cho
Chizu-cho,Tottori
By 2007.3.1 By 2007.3.1
Population      8,714
Households 2,786
Aging rate 32.79
Chizu-cho
TOKYO
http//www1.town.chizu.tottori.jp/dd.aspx?menuid1
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Landslide risk of mountain behind a house!!

• Even if an individual recognizes it, an
  individual cant take the risk by himself.
• Town government says that we dont treat a
  personal risk problem!!
• However, Village community association cant sit
  back and ignore the individual!!?Communitys
  integrated action ability is challenged!?Lets
  step forward, and act together!

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Movement and risk management of village
association

• Problem
• We cant predict when Landslide happens.
  Individual recognizes a risk, but cant solve
  it.
• It is the present conditions that public money
  dont usefor a personal problem.
• Because of private land, it is difficult to
  handle it even if village association(Zichikai)
  recognizes the risk.

• Movement for solution
• Zichikai recognizes a personal problem as a
  problem of all, and shares measures.
• It affects village vitality to spend village
  profits for an individual.
• Form more stronger relationship with an
  individual village, Ability for vitality and
  interchange with the outside rises, too.
• Positive communication of Zichikai moves both an
  individual andadministration, and Vitae System
  is formed

Vitae System Modelby Okada
10. About a mountain behind of Kobayashi's house,
Zichikai did application of hometown
maintenanceengineering works in Chizu-cho on
April 12 discuss it about future
correspondenceat a Zichikai officer's meeting
Person of profit (Mr.Kobayashi) and Zichikai
bear half of construction expense 4,170 dollars.
(When administration doesnt support it, Consider
it too )
ltextraordinary general meetinggt
ltresidents' association let individual recognize
a riskgt
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Vitae System Model
Individuals cannot face and
V
S

• Administration dont handlea personal problem !

S
1
Individuallife risk recognition but!
S
A
NOT
Zichikai
V
S
C
2
I
C
Wisdom money
Irisk recognition
S
S
C

• Individual cant settle it

Village association,Administration
Exchange Collaboration
3
V
Solar Building(Money)
V
S
W M
risk recognition
Village association can cooperate both A and I.
Village association Individual are One fate
community
Integrated and interactive risk management
executed
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Vitae System Model
A accepted it as the issue of village not a
personal problem andpromised support /
cooperation
the individual becomes more convinced of
remaining in the village
S opened community to outside network and
utilized village profits for themselves
benefiting I
Z developed relations of A I for relations of A
Z
The ability for general and interactive risk
management formation
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Thanks to the for ten years of 0/1 village
revitalization movement , it has been increasing
communitys coping capacity .
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A. Why risk management (RM) fordisaster
management (DM)?

• More proactive than retroactive
• More uncertain (non-determined, ambiguous and
  unknown) than certain

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• More exposed to and vulnerable to hazards
  (accidents, threats) than before
• More active acceptance and choices made by
  stakeholders than passive acceptance and no
  choices (since enforced)

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Growing risk environment

• Societal
• Cultural
• Political
• Economical
• Technological
• Natural

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More integrated in RM

• More stakeholders in governance
• More quality of life than quantity of life
• More implementation

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B. Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM)

• How and since when has it developed?

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IIASA-DPRI IDRiM Forum series

• Visit http//www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/RAV/index.ht
  ml
• 2001 at IIASA, Austria
• 2002 at IIASA, Austria
• 2003 at Int Conference Hall , Kyoto, Japan
• 2004 at Ravello, Italy
• 2005 at Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
  
• 2006 at Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

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What has been repeated and clarified .

• Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM)
  Promoted
• Disaster Management for a single hazard/disaster
• Disaster Management for multiple
  hazards/disasters
• Disaster Management for stakeholders in cities,
  regions and communities
• Urban/regional/community Management with
  Disaster Management being a critical component
• More Participatory Disaster Risk Management
  Needed as a Part of IDRiM Governance
• Peoples Attitudes and Behaviors to Disaster Risk
• more studied by adaptive management.

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Why IDRiM and what is it (researched) about?
(Japan as an example)
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Conventional and 21st century disaster plan
Conventional disaster plan 21st century integrated disaster planning and management
reactive emergency and crisis management countermeasure manual approach predetermined planning sectoral countermeasure approach top-down approach proactive risk mitigation preparedness anticipatory/precautionary approach adaptive management comprehensive policy-bundle approach bottom-up approach
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Lessons Learned from the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji
Earthquake

• Self-rescue/relief (????)? ? Enhancement of
  coping capacity
• Day-to-day Practice for the Ownership of
  Knowledge and Technology (Lessons Implemented)
  Long-range proactive management to be switched to
  retroactive management
• Strategy to Overlap with Urban/Regional
  Management

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Lessons Learned From 1995 Kobe Earthquake Disaster

• Work and Complete Before?Biological rhythm
• Work and Complete Together?Communication
• Work and Complete Comprehensively ?holism
• NOT Perfect in Vain on a large scale
• but
• Complete in Success on a small scale
• ?
• The Clue is IMPLEMENTATION

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Integrated Managementis needed!

• Implementation ? even small but complete
• Multiple-stakeholder involvement and
  participatory process (Mutual ownership of
  knowledge and actions )?Work to complete together
• Proactive Disaster Risk Management Process to be
  integrated within Disaster Risk Cycle Management
  Process?Work to complete before and
  comprehensively

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• Disaster Risk Management to be integrated within
  Urban (Rural, or Regional) Management ?Work to
  complete comprehensively
• Disaster Risk Management should treat a
  combination of multiple hazards (natural hazards
  including environmental hazards, social hazards)
  ?Work to complete comprehensively
• Disaster Risk Management should combine
  synergetically a bundle of policies and
  countermeasures ?Work to complete comprehensively
• - mitigation, preparedness, resiliency, relief
  and recovery, restoration, back to start with
  education ?Work long along disaster cycle
• - risk control and risk finance

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How to approach by research

• We need a new perspective, conceptual models,
  methods and tools.
• We need field works and work by adaptive
  management.

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Disaster cycle and risk communication
modified from Alexander, 2002
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Disaster Risk Management Cycle (Matsuda 2007)

• You never know when the cycle completes.

• Make use of smaller scale disasters in
  neighboring areas
• Insert intensive mini-loops of CAPD processes to
  the long loop of Disaster Risk Management Cycle

• You never know when the cycle completes itself
  .
• The loop is long and not easy to tell when it
  completes

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Plan-Do-Action-Plan ProcessSmall but Complete by
Adaptive Management
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Methodologies for Community-Based Disaster Risk
Management
Triggered by workshops, a new social network was
developed. The core groups of stakeholders of the
NW were kept stable and functioned for actions
of disaster reduction.
Community Diagnosis Chart
Conduct urban diagnosis on disaster risk and
vulnerability of the community
Inform the results of urban diagnosis to raise
public awareness on disaster risk and
vulnerability of the community
Discuss and agree on countermeasures to reduce
disaster risks in the community
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Peoples Attitude and Behavioral Factors need to
be addressed

• Furniture faxing, seemingly very easy, needs
  constant and gradual involvement though workshops
  and put-it-into practice events.
• Disaster fear timing seems the right time to
  increase some of light-countermeasures
  (easy-to-do actions) such as checking level of
  household preparedness.
• Evacuation drills can be effectively conducted if
  combined with this timing. This may even include
  overcoming false alert/warning.

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Kobe Lessons are crystalized

• Lessons are rediscovered after a (low
  frequent-high impact) disaster and commonly
  unlearned before!
• Integrated disaster risk management (IDRiM)
  should be developed.
• Implementation is a key issue.
• Research and Practice should be more overlapped
  .Theories and Empirical Approach should go hand
  in hand, adaptively.

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Messages Behind

• Seemingly non-related items must have their
  relevant foundation
• Holism, Bio-rhythm, Communicatism
• Some missing perspective should be developed!
• Integrated management, sustainable management,
  and viewing cities and regions as a whole of
  living body.

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Three Fundamental Isms to be Built into our any
living system (Vitae System)

• Holism
• Survival-Vital-Communication
• Biorythm
• tension-relaxation
• regular-irregular
• Communicatism
• mutually complementary
• mutually communicative

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Holism Viewing things as a whole
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Communication Live together
Vitae system
Simultaneously satisfied
Vita Functional Integration
Survivability Become alive
Vitality Live lively
57
Bio-rhythm Day to Day, and X Days
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Tension mode
Sympathetic nerve mode
Communication Live together
Vitae system
Functional Integration of Vitae System
Survivability Become alive
Vitality Live lively
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Relaxation mode
Para sympathetic nerve mode
Communication Live together
Vitae system
Survivability Become alive
Vitality Live lively
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Vital Rhythms
Tension
Tension
Tension
Festival
Festival
Mini-disaster
Mini-disaster
Mini-disaster
Daily life
Daily life
Daily life
Daily life
Daily life
relaxation
relaxation
relaxation
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Vitae System Dynamics

• SSurvivability, VVitality, CConvivality
• EEnvironment, ttime
• S (t) as Stamina Function of V (t) and C (t).
• V (t)Function of S (t) and C (t).
• C (t)Function of S (t), V (t) and E (t).
• S (t), V (t) and C (t) are mutually interactive
  and interdependent.
• The Dynamism is highly nonlinear and complex.
• The System is semi-open-ended.
• The 21st century still misses the knowledge of
  this kind.
• This is a part of implementation knowledge
  (science).

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Commucatism
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Networking of Vitae systems
Conviviality
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Networked Vitae System

• Every vitae system covers a marginally extended
  and thus a more resilient system is expected.
• Thus each governs the area of ones own locality,
  and thus to be networked to service the entire
  region.

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Networking of Vitae systems
Conviviality
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Conviviality Live together
Vitae system Integrated Urban Management
Conventional Urban Planning Domain Opportunity Gro
w-ability
Conventional Disaster Planning Domain Threat Vulne
rability
Vitality Live lively
Survivability Become alive