Population Geography

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Population Geography

• Distribution of World Population
• Population Statistics
• Population Control
• Population Pyramids
• Demographic Transition Theory
• Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians

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Arithmetic Density the total number of people
per a unit of land area. U.S. 76/mi2
NYC1,000,000/mi2 Australia 7/mi2 Physiologica
l Density the total number of people per a unit
of arable (farmable) land.
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Overpopulation is when there are too many people
relative to available resources. Simple density
is not the determinant.
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World and Country Population Totals

• Distribution and Structure 3/4 of people live on
  5 of earth's surface!
• Total 6.8 billion on planet as of March 5, 2010
• Current World Population Counter from U.S Census
  Bureau
• Five most populous regions and countries
• REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION
• East Asia 1.6 billion China 1.3 billion
• South Asia 1.5 billion India 1.1 billion
• Europe 1 billion U.S. 300 million
• SE Asia 600 million Indonesia 250 million
• E N. America Canada 275 million Brazil 188
  million

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Human Population Growth
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Human Population Growth
How many people will the planet eventually
support? The U.S. Census Bureau and the United
Nations Statistics Division both agree that world
population will level off somewhere between 9 and
11 billion people and then start to fall.
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Rates of Natural Increase
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Doubling Time

• How long will it take for a population of a
  given area to double in size?
• Doubling time assumes the population will
• grow at a given annual rate
• Approximated by dividing the annual rate of
  population increase into 70
• World 50
• U.S. 35
• MDC 550
• LDC 40
• Honduras 22
• Denmark 700
• Russia never?

Source National Geographic Magazine
Example Bangladesh 70 / R.N.I. gt 70/2.09 33.5
years Bangladesh with a population of 144.3
million people in 2005 will have approximately
288.6 million people in 2038, if the population
continues to grow at current rates.
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Total Fertility Rate
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Infant Mortality Rate the number of deaths of
children under the age of one per thousand live
births. The rate ranges from as low as 3
(Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra
Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over
6. High infant mortality tends to result in
higher fertility rates as families seek
insurance for the loss of children.
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Total Fertility Rate - the average number of
children a women will have in her childbearing
years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan,
Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate
is 2.
PalestinianTerritories Fertility Rate
1975-1980 7.39
1980-1985 7.00
1985-1990 6.43
1990-1995 6.46
1995-2000 5.99
2000-2005 5.57
U.K. Total fertility rate
1975-1980 1.72
1980-1985 1.80
1985-1990 1.81
1990-1995 1.78
1995-2000 1.70
2000-2005 1.66
2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate
(the rate at which a population neither grows nor
shrinks) in the developed world. In less
developed countries this rate should be higher to
account for so many children not reaching
childbearing age.
Africa Fertility Rate
1975-1980 6.60
1980-1985 6.45
1985-1990 6.11
1990-1995 5.67
1995-2000 5.26
2000-2005 4.97
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World Death Rates

• Epidemiological Transition is the shift from
  infectious to degenerative diseases that occurs
  with development.
• Infectious diseases (developing world)
• HIV/AIDS
• SARS
• Malaria
• Cholera
• Degenerative diseases (developed countries)
• Obesity
• Tobacco use

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Adults and Children Living with HIV/AIDS, mid-2006
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Life Expectancy
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Life Expectancy

• Rapid increase throughout world
• Infant mortality rate declining in most countries
• Antibiotics/immunization

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New Influences on Birth Rates

• Family planning programs
• Contraceptive technology
• Role of mass media
• Radio/TV Soap Operas ("Twende na Wakati" in
  1990s Tanzania, which means "Let's Go with the
  Times"

Government Billboard, Indonesia
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Population Control

• Obstacles
• Manufacture/distribution expense
• Religion
• Low female status
• Many studies show that fastest way to reduce
  fertility rate is to encourage more women to get
  educated
• Preference for male children

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Demographic Transition Model
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Demographic Transition Model

• Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)
• Crude birth/death rate high
• Fragile, but stable, population
• Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)
• Lower death rates
• Infant mortality rate falls
• Natural increase very high
• Stage three (attitudes change)
• Indicative of richer developed countries
• Higher standards of living/education
• Crude birth rate finally falls
• Stage four
• Crude birth/death rates low
• Population stable
• Populations aging

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• Problems with the Demographic Transition Model
• based on European experience, assumes all
  countries will progress to complete
  industrialization
• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically
  without increase in wealth TV and family
  planning seem to be at work
• on the other hand, some countries stuck in
  stage 2 or stage 3, particularly in Sub-Saharan
  Africa and Middle East

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Population Shift
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An Aging World

• Discussion (pair-share)
• What are the implications of an aging population
  for
• The housing market?
• Social security and pension funds?
• Public financing of colleges and universities?
• Global migration flows?

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Overpopulation

• When consumption of natural resources by people
  outstrip the ability of a natural region to
  replace those natural resources.

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Jean Antoine Condorcet

• (1743 1794)
• predicted that innovation, resulting increased
  wealth, and choice would provide food and
  resources in the future and lead to fewer
  children per family
• believed that society was perfectible

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Thomas Malthus on Population
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

• Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted
  population would outrun food supply, leading to a
  decrease in food per person.
• Assumptions
• Populations grow exponentially.
• Food supply grows arithmetically.
• Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

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Population J-Curve
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Population and the Environment
I P x A x T Impact Population x Affluence x
Technology

• Population-influenced environmental problems
• Global Warming
• Habitat Loss / Endangered Species
• Resource Depletion
• Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

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Population and Resource Consumption
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Technology, Energy Consumption, and Environmental
Impact

• There has been a dramatic increase in
• individual energy use over time 3,000
  kcal/person - 300,000 kcal/person
• the power of technology to change the
  environment think stone axe versus bulldozer
  versus atomic bomb.
• The scope and severity of environmental impacts.

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The End