Sustainability Science

1
Sustainability Science

• Gerald Singh
• Teaching Assistant ENCS 376

2
(No Transcript)
3
Sustainability

• 1972 The Club of Rome The Limits to Growth
• Unbridled conventional growth cannot be sustained
• 1987 World Commission on Environment and
  Development (Brundtland Report) Our Common
  Future
• Development that meets the needs of the present
  generation without compromising the ability of
  future generations to meet their own needs
• The capacity of the biosphere to absorb the
  effects of human activities

4
Center designed to replicate the Earths
environment (in Oracle, AZ), with five biomes (a
900,000-gallon ocean, a rain forest, a desert,
agricultural areas and a human habitat). It
tested our ability to manage ecosystems for
ecosystem services. In 1991 8 Biospherians sealed
themselves within to manage the
system. Dr. Kai Chan 2007
5
Biosphere 2 Outcomes
O2 levels plummeted CO2 and N2O levels
skyrocketed Water purification failed 19 of 25
vertebrate species went extinct All pollinators
went extinct Crazy ants, cockroaches, katydids
rampant Social collapse
Dr. Kai Chan 2007
6
Further Conclusions Kai Chan
Further evidence of Jared Diamonds hypothesis
that environmental collapse is closely associated
with social collapse. Clear that we know too
little to manage for ecosystem services. Not fair
conclusion? True, we have typically escaped the
consequences of local collapses by importing
resources/exporting wastes elsewhere, but this
gives me no more confidence that we can manage
the whole Earth sustainably. If we cant manage a
3.15 acre patch successfully, where do we get the
hubris to assume we can do a good job at a
planetary scale? (Its not just about avoiding
collapse also about maximizing human welfare.)
7
Problems with Definition?

• Development that meets the needs of the present
  generation without compromising the ability of
  future generations to meet their own needs
• How do we put this concept into practice?
• Strong sustainability manufactured and human
  capital are complementary to natural capital a
  constant stock of natural capital must be
  maintained
• Strict
• Treats world statically
• Weak sustainability manufactured and human
  capital are substitutes for natural capital
• Loose
• Treats world plastically

8
I generally think of sustainability as a way of
using current resources so that future
generations are still able to use them in the
same way that we do. That definition would apply
to renewable resources like fish or timber, where
the stock of the resource would be kept the same,
and flows used each year would be maintainable
into future generations. Monica Kohler (2007)

• Productivity is important, and sustaining
  production
• Can consider everything this way, as the
  production of natural resources, cultural
  resources, production of aesthetics (by natural
  areas), production (generation) of income, etc.

9
What are underpinnings?

• Like most (all?) ideas/concepts, is philosophical
  in nature
• Ethics (equitability) drive a large part of
  definition
• My opinion, sustainability in its strictest sense
  is stationary, and I would argue very unlikely
  and ecologically unwise.
• Targets humans
• Biome 2 was disaster for humans, but great for
  katydids

10
Why Study?

• Mankind as it is constituted, is a boil and a
  canker
• -Polynikes, from Pressfield (1998)
• Sentiment of some
• Humans undeniably have a huge effect on the
  planet, and these changes we make feedback and
  affect us

11
In the end we conserve only what we love. We love
only what we understand. We understand only what
we are taught. -Baba Dioum, Senegalese poet
One thing is sure.  The earth is now more
cultivated and developed than ever before.  There
is more farming with pure force, swamps are
drying up, and cities are springing up on
unprecedented scale.  We've become a burden to
our planet.  Resources are becoming scarce, and
soon nature will no longer to able to satisfy our
needs. -Quintus Septimius Tertullianus, 200
A.D.
12
Why are you in/interested in Conservation Biology?

• Flashback 2003
• I started ConBio thinking that I would study to
  conserve the other things, humans have a lot of
  help already
• Now
• The reality is that the other things are in a
  world that is heavily impacted by humans, and
  will be for foreseeable future. Get people in
  good position, and will have spillover effects

Problems? Of course!
Environmental Kuznets curve
13
Sustainability Science

• David J. Rapport (2007)
• Sustainability science is, at root, a
  transdisciplinary effort to come to grips with
  one of the most perplexing issues of our time
  how to achieve a symbiotic relationship between
  biological and social-cultural systems so that
  future options are not foreclosed. It is not a
  science by any usual definition that is, it
  is not yet a set of principles by which knowledge
  of sustainability may be systematically built.
  Rather, it consists of a plethora of ideas and
  perspectives, sometimes conflicting, by which one
  might hope to achieve a viable future for
  humankind.

14
So Again, what is Sustainability?
Conventional, inspires triple bottom line

• Strategic concept
• Gives a clear target
• Poor understanding of the world when taken
  literally
• Do these three components have mutually exclusive
  parts?

Environment
Society
Economy
15
Alternate, complementary viewpoint
New, integrated view

• Strategic concept
• Gives a clearer understanding of what to
  manipulate. Economy more tightly organized,
  simple rules, so easier to manage
• Target less clear

Environment
Society
Economy
16
Tradeoffs
Tradeoffs can be between larger environment,
society, economy as well

• Add in complexity from competition, and other
  associations (symbioses, etc) and how likely are
  we to find a situation that is beneficial to all
  involved?
• Find conditions suited for people
• But remember Kuznets curve, species that can
  coexist with people not set

17
Organization

• Because we are interested in sustaining
  production of certain resources to meet the
  indicators of specific goals, and we understand
  that there are tradeoffs involved in the way
  resources are handled, the organization of a
  system to manage resources is very important
• Organization also affects the efficiency of a
  system to manage resources
• Organization affects the resilience of a system
  (how well it stands up to shocks)
• There can be tradeoffs between (apparent)
  efficiency and resilience (e.g. farm field,
  monocultures and pest outbreak)

18
Goals and Indicators
Goal
Indicator of Success
19
Multiple Scales, Large Scales

• John D. Sterman (2002)
• (Almost) nothing is exogenous
• Linear, deterministic pathways in small,
  independent closed systems dont actually exist
• Dynamic, multi-trajectory open subsystems feeding
  back on each other within very large system
  (world/universe?) is likely true
• Unforeseen conditions, impacts

Correct conditions
Impactor
Impacted
Cause
Effect
Multiple intermediary effects
20
The Nature of Conventional Science
Conventional Sciences are studies in Natural
History
Where we are
Where weve been
Where we are
Study subject
Study subject
Where weve been
Time
Time
21
The Nature of Sustainability Science
Sustainability Science is Future-oriented
Where we are
Where we might end up
Study subject
Where we are
Study subject
Time
Time
22
Sustainability Misconceptions
Supply
This situation is not necessarily unsustainable
Resource
Sustainability considerations have to consider
supply in context of demand
Demand
Time
23
Sustainability Misconceptions
Vying for sustainable economic GROWTH
Economic indicator d/dt
Economic indicator
Time
Time
Because growth looks at rates of increase, this
situation would not be sustainable
24
Sustainability Misconceptions

• Finding a sustainable strategy to preserve
  present conditions alive and well
• This mentality assumes that current conditions
  are sustainable
• Things wont just be solved for us

Human populations can theoretically be sustained
at any population, but resource use per capita
would have to approach zero
Resource Use per capita
Human population
25
Getting to Sustainable Conditions

• Because Goals can be subjective, it is likely
  that we will never get to a truly sustainable
  state
• We are always refining what health means,
  conservation goals
• Shifting baselines/Pauleys Ratchet humans are
  ungrateful beasts
• Sustainability is a moving target
• Sustainability is not a state to fall into
• Our priorities change

26
Sustainable Crop and Livestock Production

• Currently, there is enough food being produced to
  meet effective demand of food
• Population growth is slowing
• Current world population at 6.6 billion
• World population projected to reach about 9
  billion within the next 30 years, stabilize
• Food production is projected to meet effective
  demand in the future
• World GDP on the rise, all countries becoming
  richer

27
Whats the Concern?

• Effective demand is not potential demand
• Currently, there are 850 million people who are
  undernourished, and poverty is projected to stay
  in the future (this number may go up)
• Increases in yield are not as high as they were
  in the past
• For first time in history, arable land expansion
  not a viable solution
• As incomes rise, more meat eating
• Incomes rising for middle class, greater
  disparity
• Agriculture is the most expansive land use
  practice in the world, and livestock management
  takes up the greatest proportion of agriculture.
• We can meet demand, but will this be done
  sustainably?
• Agricultural production more in developing world,
  so potential problems with ISO compliance,
  zoonotic disease (tropics more disease prone)

28
Potential Demand Effective Demand
Goal
100
0
Percent of population with high food consumption

• This is the ultimate goal, while also meeting
  effective demand at the same time
• Other aspects of sustainable development should
  be pursued while attempting this

29
Environmental concerns/ resilience
of new pop. That can afford food
Economic growth
Population Growth
Climate Change
Erosion risk, water quality, geologic risks
Increase in per capita income
Growth of consumer population
Loss of non-crop habitat
Prevalence of dispersive organisms
Disease spread, zoonosis
Consumption saturation
Disturbances
World Demand
Demand of choices present
Pest outbreaks
World Demand Sector/Equity
Food Price
Arable land /livestock expansion
World Supply
Supply for what is demanded
Human settlement
Migration to cities
Increased cropping intensities
Farm subsidies
Farmers contributing to world supply
Yield growth
Biofuels
Ratio of subsistence market farmers
Technological innovation
World Supply Sector/ Production
Species cultivated/domesticated
Increased monoculture
Globalization / 3rd world input/Equity
Agricultural policy
30
Productivity

• Better genetic strain of crops
• GMOs, but ethical issues for some
• Genetic ceiling at some point most experts doubt
  another Green Revolution will happen
• Loss of genetic diversity in livestock
• Soil conservation
• Conservation tillage, zero tillage prevent
  erosion, maintain soil biota
• But, usually rely more on pesticides
• Irrigation and Fertilizers
• Much higher yields than rainfed, nonfertilized
  fields
• But, water concerns in the future, not everyone
  has access to fertilizer
• Policies encouraging greater productivity

31
Efficiency

• Correct amounts of fertilizer used
• Limits costs, takes advantage of all nutrients
  put in soil
• Prevents nutrients from leaching into natural
  systems
• Integrated Pest Management
• Combine cultural, biological, chemical means to
  defend against pests, choose most effective means
  for individual pests
• Very labour intensive
• Technology
• Drip and pivot irrigation systems add just enough
  water so water not lost, potential Blue
  revolution
• Machines can make farm operation much more
  efficient
• Many farmers do not have training, and would rely
  on equipment meant for very few crop types, so
  could lose local knowledge of farming if switch
  to food for global market

32
Resilience

• Set asides on landscape to allow habitat for
  native pollinators and pest predators
• Agroforestry techniques to mitigate wind, water
  erosion, create favourable microclimate for crops
• Environmental Goods and Services
• 30 trillion a year in services provided by other
  organism
• Policies supporting multiple farming practices on
  landscape, genetically distinct breeds and
  cultivars
• Organic farms usually more resilient to
  disturbances, but less productive

33
General Approaches to Sustainability on Large
Scale

• High Yield Conservation
• Small areas intensively managed can produce a lot
  of food to set aside land for conservation
• Agriculture is generally an intensive land
  practice anyway
• Problems?
• People dont generally get satisfied with
  reaching some goal. If not used for agriculture,
  land can be used for other development
• Huge impacts in areas where food grown

34
Norman E. Borlaug (2007)
35
Triad

• Some areas designated protected areas, some areas
  are managed intensely, some areas managed more
  extensively (organic farming)
• Developed for Forest management, could it be
  applied to agriculture, where prominently private
  land and inherently intensively managed?

Alpac 2007
36
Blue Sky-ing a Priority Zoning Strategy in
Alberta
A Priority Land Use Zoning Concept for
Alberta Zone Priority Given to Purple
Zone Human Residency Blue Zone Water
Protection Recreation Black Zone Hydrocarbon
Extraction Yellow Zone Crop and Livestock
Production Red Zone Endangered Species Green
Zone Forest Production Orange Zone Parks and
Protection White Zone Multiple Use Priority
Zones are regions in Alberta where there is an
explicit recognition of the primary purpose of
the region and the intolerance of land use
practices that interfere with the attainment of
that primary purpose Some land use may be highly
complementary (i.e., parks and water protection),
whereas others are not (water protection and
intensive livestock operations)
Brad Stelfox (2006)
37
Questions?