Title: NATO
1NATO
- Reiter, Dan. 2001. Why NATO Enlargement Does Not
Spread Democracy. International Security 2541-67.
2Plan
- Quick NATO background
- Why enlarge NATO?
- Membership
- Spreading Democracy?
- Credibility Problem
- Alienating Russia
- Security Organizations Part 2 The Arab League
CENTO - The Utility of Joining an Alliance
- The production of knowledge
3North Atlantic Treaty Organization
- THE Cold War alliance of the West
- Established 1949 just a political organization
- Then a war galvanized the member states
- Which war?
- KOREAN WAR 1950-1953
- The first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay
(UK), famously stated the organization's goal
was - to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and
the Germans down.
4Article 5?
- an armed attack against one shall be considered
an attack against them all - The principle of collective defense
- Invoked once
- 9/12/2001
- http//www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm
5Important aside
- What was the rival alliance of the East?
- The Warsaw Pact
- Dissolved with the end of the Cold War
6With the end of the Cold War, what good is NATO
why enlarge it?
7Why not enlarge NATO?
- Credibility problem
- Alienating Russia
8North Atlantic Treaty Organization
- HQ located where?
- Brussels, Belgium
- April 4,1949 12 countries signed the North
Atlantic Treaty - Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy,
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal
(dictatorship until 1975!), the United Kingdom,
and the United States - 3 components of the treaty relevant to
enlargement and democratization are notable - Article 5 is the most binding aspect of the
treaty an armed attack against one or more of
the parties in Europe or North America shall be
considered an attack against them all. - The treaty in two places (Articles 2 and 10)
states its commitment to democratic principles - Article 10 allows for the inclusion of new
members by unanimous vote - Four nations joined as new members during the
Cold War - 1952 Greece (Dict 1967-73) Turkey
(Authoritarian until 1960, with military
interventions in 1971 1980. 1980-1982 military
rule!!!) - 1955 West Germany in 1955 (Dem)
- 1982 Spain (Dem 1977-)
9Take-aways from previous slide
- Membership has grown
- 2 joined as dictatorships (Portugal, Turkey)
- 2 experienced democratic breakdowns (Greece,
Turkey) - Article 5 Common defense
- Articles 2 10 Democratic principles
10- 1994 Secretary of State Warren Christopher
- pushes for NATO enlargement
- Christopher come from the institutionalist
school of thought believes international
institutions promote democracy, trade, peace - March 1999 Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland
- (Bush... Neo-con?...)
- March 2004 Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia - April 2009 Albania, Croatia
- Wiki timeline http//upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped
ia/commons/c/c3/Map_of_NATO_chronological.gif h
11How might NATO spread democracy?
- Carrot
- Since 1995, NATO only admits democracies
- Thus governments that want to join NATO have an
incentive to bring about democracy - Problem?
- This is a new rule. Historically there have been
non-democratic members
12How might NATO spread democracy?
- Stick
- Ejection NATO might eject countries if
democracy breaks down - Thus member governments have an incentive to
continue to play by democratic rules - Problem?
- There is no legal basis for this!
- At best this might be possible through a
unanimous vote, but there are so many members,
unanimity on ejection is unlikely - Organization of American States and European
Union do have explicit ejection procedures
13How might NATO spread democracy?
- Socialization effect
- Teach military leaders the importance of civilian
supremacy over the military - NATO provides an institutionalized environment
- transgovernmental contacts between militaries,
spread norms of civilian control of the military - Problem?
- The major determinant of the survival of
democracy is per capita income (Przeworski) - However we will discuss the work of Pevehouse
(class 24)
14Risks for NATO from enlargement
- Credibility problem
- Alienating Russia
15Risks for NATO (1) Credibility problem
- an armed attack against oneshall be considered
an attack against them all. - Poland 31 of the American public agrees that
the US has a vital interest - Japan 87 of the American public agrees that the
US has a vital interest - If we are unwilling to come to the defense of
NATO members, the organization is weakened
16Risks for NATO (2) Alienating Russia
- Russian point of view
- With the end of the Cold War came the end of the
Warsaw Pact - So, why is there still a NATO?
- And why is it growing?
- And why is it growing right up to our borders??
17The Risk Waking the Sleeping Bear
?
18The 2008 South Ossetia War a.k.a. the
RussiaGeorgia War
- Georgia enter NATO?
- Putin warns Bush
- Georgia continues quest to join NATO
19Conclusion
- The continued usefulness of NATO depends on it
being credible (defending ALL members) - The point is to bring about peace not alienate
rivals (Russia) - Enlargement may promote peace by promoting
democracy - But it is not obvious that NATO membership can
indeed promote democracy
20Security Organizations Part 2 The Arab League
CENTO
- Gilligan, Michael and W. Ben Hunt. 1998. The
Domestic and International Sources of Foreign
Policy Alliance formation in the Middle East
1946-78. In Strategic Politicians, Institutions
and Foreign Policy, edited by Randolph Siverson,
pp. 143-68. Ann Arbor University of Michigan
Press.
21Most threats are domestic
22The Utility of Joining an Alliance
Realism
Domestic Politics
23- Military expenditure
- The military expenditure of the country in
question as a share of the total military
expenditures of the other countries in the region
plus the global powers (UNSC P5) - Alliance military expenditure
- Similarly defined as share of the countrys
allies expenditures - External threat Alliance external threat
- Sum of threatening events directed against the
country
24- Expected probability of a government change
(internal threat) - Authors estimate the probability of a government
change
25What the heck?
26The production of knowledge
- When published?
- Where published?
- Cited?
- http//scholar.google.com/
27Take home point
- Look for domestic sources of foreign policy
28Thank youWE ARE GLOBAL GEORGETOWN!