??? ? ?? ??? Air Quality and Emission Modeling

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??? ? ?? ???Air Quality and Emission Modeling
2002.4
? ? ?
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Outline

• ? Air Quality Management Process
• Air Quality Management Cycle
• Roles of Air Quality Model
• ? Air Quality Modeling
• Evolution of Air Quality Modeling System
• USEPAs Third-Generation One-Atmosphere
  Modeling Tool
• Models-3/CMAQ System
• Applications of Models-3/CMAQ System
• ? Air Pollutant Emission Modeling
• Methodology of Emission Estimation
• Emission Inventory Database and Emission
  Modeling
• Applications

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Air Quality Management Process
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Air Quality Management Cycle
Establish Goals
What Reductions Are Necessary?
? Science(Criteria) ? Law(NAAQS)
? Monitoring ? Inventories ? Modeling ? Risk
and Econ. Analysis
Evalualte Results
How to Achive
? Monitoring ? Modeling
? National Rules Programs ? States Plan
Implement
? States Local Rules ? Permits ? Compliance
Enforcement
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Air Quality Management Process under
CAA/NAAQS(U.S)
Air Quality Monitoring
Rulemaking Implementation
Air Quality Modeling Assement
Emission Inventory
Control Strategy Risk Assessment
Cost/Benefit analysis Optimizaiton
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??????? ??????Schematic Diagram of Air Quality
Management
Goal (Ozone, Acid rain, ...)

Policy Decision
Control Strategy Evaluation
Modeling Performance Evaluation
MODLEING
MONITORING
Emission - Meteorology - Chemistry - Deposition
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Components of a Modeling Systemfor Air Quality
Management
Emissions input data
Meteorological input data
Emission Model
Meteorological Model
Emission Changes
Air Quality Model
Decision Support System
Socio- Economic Factors
Air quality input data
Decision support input data
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Air Quality Modeling
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Roles of Air Quality Models

• Research tool
• Understanding of pollution formation process
• Regulatory tool
• Current AQ Assessment future AQ projection
• Control strategy development
• Required by Law in the U.S
• Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990
• U.S. EPAs Regulatory Models

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Air Qaulity Management - The Tool Mathematical
Modeling
Physical model small scale, lab.
presentations of the phenomena (wind tunnel,
water tank ...) Mathmatical model a set of
anlytical/numerical algorthms that describe the
physical and chemical aspects of the problem
Deterministic models based on the fundamental
mathematical descriptions of atmpospheric
precesses, in which effects(i.e., air
pollution) area generated by cause(i. e.,
emission) Statistical models based upon
semiemperical statistical relations among
available data and measurements
Eulerian model Laglangian model Gaussian model
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Dimensions of Atmospheric Dynamics
A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffie A Climate
Modeling Primer, John Wiley Sons, 1987 p. 2
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Temporal and Spatial Scale of Chemical Lifetime
and Transport
(Advection at 4m/s)
Robin L. Dennis, Daewon W. Byun, Joan H. Novak,
Kenneth J. Galluppi, Carlie J. Coats, The next
generation of integrated air quality modeling
EPA's Models-3, Atmos. Environ. 30(12)
1925-1938(196)
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Scale of Known Meteorological Phenomena
Robin L. Dennis, Daewon W. Byun, Joan H. Novak,
Kenneth J. Galluppi, Carlie J. Coats, The next
generation of integrated air quality modeling
EPA's Models-3, Atmos. Environ. 30(12)
1925-1938(196)
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AtmosphericDynamics
A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffie A Climate
Modeling Primer, John Wiley Sons, 1987 p. 135
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Governing Equation of Air Quality Dynamics
A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffie A Climate
Modeling Primer, John Wiley Sons, 1987 p. 135
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Air Quality Diffusion Equation Conservation of
mass
Source Sink
Rxns
Advection
Diffusion
C Concentration(ML-3) t Time(T) u, v, w
Wind vector(LT-1) Ex, Ey, Ez Diffusion
coefficient vector(L2T-1) ?R Reaction
rate(ML-3T-1) ?S Source and sink(ML-3T-1)
(emission and deposition)
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MM5The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State
Mesoscale Model

• Prognostic vs Diagnostic
• GCM and

http//www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/
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CSU RAMSColorado State University Regional
Atmospheric Modeling System
http//rams.atmos.colostate.edu/
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Evolution of Air Quality Models

• 1st-generation AQM (1970s - 1980s)
• Dispersion Models (e.g., Gaussian Plume
  Models-ISC)
• Photochemical Box Models (e.g. OZIP/EKMA)
• 2nd-generation AQM (1980s - 1990s)
• Photochemical Grid Models (e.g., UAM, RADM)
  
• 3rd-generation AQM (1990s - 2000s)
• Community-Based One-Atmosphere Modeling
  System
• (e.g., U.S. EPAs Models-3/CMAQ)

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First-Generation Air Quality Models
Gaussian Dispersion Model ISC3, CALPUFF,
AERMOD (for primary pollutants)
Photochemical Box Model OZIP/EKMA (for ozone)
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2nd-Generation Air Quality Models
Eulerian Grid Models UAM, RADM, REMSAD, ROM
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3-D Modeling Scheme
Grid sheme and treatment of atmospheric processs
of UAM
U. S. EPA, Users guide for the Urban Airshed
Model(CB-IV), EPA-50/4-90-007A, 1990
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3-D Modeling Scheme
A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffie A Climate
Modeling Primer, John Wiley Sons, 1987 p. 138
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Examples of 2nd-Generation Air Quality Models
UAM
Photochemical Grid Models
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Modeling Atmospheric Chemistry CBM-IV, RADM2
CBM-IV Carbon Bond Mecanism, Version 4 Gas phase
chemisrty for Ozone Lumped approach (23 species,
80 rxn eq.) RADM2 Regional Acid Deposition
Model Multi-phase chemistry Explicit approach
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Third-Generation Air Quality ModelsU.S.EPAs
Models-3/CMAQ

• Open-Access Community-Based Models
• User-friendly, Modular, Common modeling
  framework
• for scientists and policy-makers.
• Advanced Computer Technologies
• High performance hardware and software
  technologies
• (Cross-platform, GUI, distributed computing,
  visualization
• tools, etc.).
• One-Atmosphere Modeling
• Multi-pollutant (Ozone, PM, visibility,
  acid deposition, air toxics, etc.)
• Multi-scale.

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One-Atmosphere Modeling Models-3/CMAQ
Mobile Sources
Ozone
NOx, VOC, PM, Toxics
(Cars, trucks, planes, boats, etc.)
PM
Industrial Sources
Acid Rain
Chemistry Meteorology
NOx, VOC, SOx, PM, Toxics
Visibility
(Power plants, refineries/ chemical plants,
etc.)
Air Toxics
Atmospheric Deposition
Area Sources
Climate Change
NOx, VOC, PM, Toxics
(Residential, farming commercial, biogenic,
etc.)
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Smog Ozone PM(fine)
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NOx-Related Air Quality Issues
(NO3-, NH4) PM
(NOx VOC hv) --gt Ozone
NOx
Acid Rain (NO3- deposition)
Visibility (Fine PM)
Water Quality (Nitrogen deposition, Lake
Acidification)
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SOx-Related Air Quality Issues
(Fine PM) Visibility
(SO42-, NH4) PM
SOx
Acid Rain (SO42- deposition)
Water Quality (Lake acidification, Toxics
deposition)
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.OH Role in Pollutants Formation
One-Atmosphere
PM2.5
SOx or NOx NH3 OH ---gt (NH4)2SO4
or NH4NO3
VOC OH ---gt Orgainic PM
One Atmosphere
Ozone
One Atmosphere
Visibility
Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)
.OH
NOx VOC OH hv ---gt O3
Acid Rain
Water Quality
SO2 OH ---gt H2SO4
NOx SOx OH (Lake Acidification,
Eutrophication)
NO2 OH ---gt HNO3
OH lt---gt Air Toxics (POM, PAH, Hg(II),
etc.)
Air Toxics
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Models-3/CMAQ Technology Transfer Applications
Models-3/CMAQ Release (annual since 1998)
Version Cray Supercomputer and Unix
Workstations PCs (Linux OS)
recommended Technology Transfer User Support
Help Desk Model-3 User E-mail List Server
Training User Workshop CMAS Modeling
Support Center
http//www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/models3/
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Models-3/CMAQ System Framework
or RAMS
Meteorology Processor
or SMOKE
Emission Processor
Air Quality Model
PAVE
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Science Process Components in Models-3/CMAQ
(Courtesy of Daewon Byun, USEPA/ORD)
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Science Modules Flow Charts in Models-3/CMAQ
(Courtesy of Daewon Byun, USEPA/ORD)
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U. S. EPA, Models-3 conceptsAdaptability
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Models-3/CMAQ Demo Simulation PM 2.5
Fine PM Species (PM2.5) Sulfate, Nitrate,
Ammonium, Secondary anthropogenic biogenic
organics, Primary elementary carbon, Unspeciated
primary aerosols
Coarse PM Species (PM10) Fugitive dust Sea
salt Unspeciated anthropogenic aerosols
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Models-3/CMAQ Demo Simulation Visibility
Visual Range Parameters Deciview (dv) dV
10 ln (b / 0.01), b km-1 extinction
coeff. Koschmieder Visual Range Vr 3.91 /
b km
dV Vr km b km-1 60 1.0 4.0 40
7.2 0.55 20 53 0.07 10 144 0.03 0 391
0.01
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Models-3 Future
CMAS
CMAQ
MIMS

• Community Multiscale
• Air Quality (CMAQ)
• Modeling System
• First release 07/1998
• Recent release 06/2001
• Ready to use for O3, PM,
• visibility, acid rain
• Currently undergoing
• PM evaluation and
• air toxics development

• Community Modeling
• and Analysis System
• (CMAS)
• Year 2001 - 2004 plan
• Outreach to user community
• Provide support to users
• through Training Support
• Center
• Hold Models-3 training
• and workshop

• Multi-Media
• Integrated Modeling
• System (MIMS)
• Year 2000 - 2008 plan
• Include Multi-media and
• cross-media pollutants
• Common framework for
• airshed and watershed
• modeling

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Schematic Diagram of Multi-Media Environmental
Modeling
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Dry Deposition Modeling
F -vdC 1/vd rt ra rb rc
F the vertical dry deposition flux(M/L2)
vd the deposition velocity(L/T) C the
concentration of air(M/L3)
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Dry Deposition Sampling
Deposition plate a 1?3 inch greased(L-Apiezon)
Mylar strip, which is mounted on to a clean PVC
plate. have a sharp
leading edge(to induce laminar flow).
are kept pointing into the
wind(to avoid reentrainment).
should be covered whenever it rains or
snows(used the moisture sensors for automation).
Sampling time Short-term samples
872 hrs Long-term samples 14 weeks
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Arerosol Samplers
TSP, High volumn sampler
PM10, High volumn sampler
Dichotonous PM sampler
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Deposition Velocity Particle Size
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Computing Resource of NCSC
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Air Pollutants Emission Modeling
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????? ??

• ??? ?? ??? ?? ? ??
• ?? ??? ?? ? ?? ??? ??
• ??? ????? ??
• ?? ???? ??
• ??????
• ??? ?? ? ??
• ?? ???? ??
• ????? ??

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U.S. EPAs NEI AIRS

• NEI(national emission inventory)
• input from State and local air agencies
• National Emission Trends (NET) database,
  Criteria pollutant emissions data (1985 )
• National Toxics Inventory (NTI) database,
  Hazardous air pollutants emissions data (1993 )

http//www.epa.gov/airs/
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U.S. EPAs AIRS
AIRS Arerometric Information Retrieval System
GCS Geo-common Subsystem
AQS Air Quality Subsystem
AMS Area/Mobile Subsystem
AFS Facility Subsystem
Emissions Data
Compliance Data
Permitting Enhancements
AG Graphics
http//www.epa.gov/airs/
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U.S. EPAs CHIEF
http//www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/
Emission Factor and Inventory Group Factor and
inventory contact News general information
Report
AP-42 and Other Estimation references AP-42
LE documents(air toxics) Source classification
code
Emission Estimation Software Area source
analysis program DESPERATE(Air toxics model)
FIRE Fugitive dust emissions Inventory
projection software SPECIATE PC-BEIS TANKS
others
National Inventory Data Projection Ozone
transport Emission trend procedure
Emission Inventory Improvement Program Point
source Area source Mobile source Biogenic
source Data management Coding Quality
assurance State/Local interaction
Emission Inventory Guidance General inventory
guidance Air toxics Criteria pollutants
Greenhouse gas
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EU, EEAs CORINAIR
CORINAIR CO-ordination of Information on AIR
emissions
http//www.eea.eu.int http//www.dmu.dk
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?? ???? ?? ??

• ???, ???????, ??? ?? ???
• ???, ???????, 15? ???? ?? ??
• ?? 5,000??, ?? 30,000??
• ??????, ???? ???? ?? ??, 1997
• ??? ????? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ??
• ???, Toxic Release Inventory, 80?? ???????
  ???(OECD ?? ??)
• ???, ????? ??? ???? ? DB??
• (??????, ???)
• ???, ????????? (???, ???)
• http//www.me.go.kr/gita/daegi/main.htm

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??? ????????? 1
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??? ????????? 2
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Source Classification
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Source Classification(CORINAIR, ?????????)
about 500 categories
 
 
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Source Classification(U.S.EPA)
about 9,400 categories
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General Approach to Emission Estimation
? Bottom-up approach Point source, Industrial
process ? Top-down approach Mobile, Area, ..
? Emission Modeling Storage tank, Landfill .
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???? ????

• ? ???? ??? ???? ???, ?? ? 3??? ?? ???? DB
• Bottom-up approach
• ? ???? Top-down approach
• ? ????? Top-down approach
• ? ????? ??, ?? ? - Emission Modeling
• Ex) U.S. EPAs BEIS2
• ? ?????
• Solvent use - Painting, Printing, Laundary
• Top-down approach
• Storage Tank, Landfill site Emission
  Modeling
• Ex) U.S. EPAs TANKS

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???? ????(Activity level and Emission Factor)
???(Resolution)
????

• ? ? ???? ????-???
• ???? ??? ???
• ?????, ???-????
• ?????, ???-????
• ????? ?? VOCs??-???
• ????? ??-????

• ?????? ???(g/ton)
• ?????? ???(g/ton)
• ?? ????? ???(g/km)
• ?? ??? ???(g/?)
• ?????? ???(g/ton)
• ????? ???(g/m2)

• ???? ???? ??
• ?? ???? ????
• ??? ??? ??????
• U. S.EPAs AP-42, Mobile5

• ?? ???? ?
• ???? ???? ?? ??

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??? ? ????
???(Resolution)
????
? ??? ??? ???? ??????(????, ???)
????(1, 2, 4, 100 km...) ? ??? ??? ??
??(???) ??(??, ??) ???
? ???? SO2, NO2, PM, CO) ? ??????(VOCs)
speciated VOCs ? ????, ??????? ? ????????(HAPs)
Hourly, Gridded, Speciated Emission Modeling
Air Quality Modeling
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Emission Modeling forGridded, Hourly, Speciated
Data
? Spatial allocation activity level database
spatial information ? Temporal allocation
activity level database temporal information
? Chemical speciation Chemical speciation
database U. S. EPAs SPECIATE(VOC, PM)
database
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?? ??? ??The schematic diagram of emission
modeling system
Pre-processing
GIS database Spatial Information Spatial
Modeling
Activity Level Database
Spatial Allocation
Normalized Emission Estimation Model Anthropogen
ic Point source Area source Mobile
source Others Natural source Biogenic
Domain Definition Spatial Domain Temporal
Domain Resolution
Temporal Allocation
Uncertainty Model
Post-processing
Report
Emission Projection Model
Emission Inventory Database
Chemical Speciation
Model Application
SPECIATE Database
Pre-processing
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Scheme U.S. EPAs Emission Modeling System(EMS)
for UAM
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SMOKE
Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emssions Modeling
Systemfor Models3 by U.S. EPAs NEI MCNC
Gridding Matrix
Temperature Preprocess
Emission Factor
M
Inventory Import
M
All Merge
Temporal Allocation
Inventory Merge
Speciation Matrix
Control Matrix
Layer Fractions
Elevated Source ID
P
Point only
P
P
M
Mobile only
Land Use Import
Biogenic Hourly Adjustment
B
B
Biogenic only
B
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Spatial Allocation
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TemporalAllocation
Monthly allocation
Hourly allocation
Daily allocation
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??? ??? ???
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??? ???? ??? ??
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???? ??? ??
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??? ????(???? ??)
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??? ????(???? ??)
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QA/QC
1) ??? ?? Delphi methods Rating and/or
Ranking system 2) ??? ?? ??? ??? ???
???? ?? ??? ?? ???? ?? NMHC/NOx, CO/NOx
ratio 0700-0800, 0800-1000,
0700-0900(LST) ??? ??? ???? ??(Rolling back)
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???????? ?? ?? 1
? ???? ?? - ???? ?? ?? - ??? ??? ??? ?? ????
?? - ?????? ? ??? ??? ???? ?? ? DB? ????? ???
?? - Urban/Local/National/Regional domain
definition ? ??????(Environmental Information
System)? ??? - ??, ???? DB - ???, ???? ??
DB ? ??? ??? ?? QA/QC?? ?? ? ??? ??(Projection) ?
????????(HAPs), ???? ??? ??
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???????? ?? ?? 2
? ???? ?? ????? ????? ?? (???-??????)
? ???? ???? ??? ???? ?? ? ?? ?? ex. ??? AIRS
system ? ?? ?? ??
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Thank you.
You can download this presentation from
http//kimdy.kri.re.kr/research/paper_data/
Dong Young Kim