MDM4U Culminating Project Unemployment and Divorce in Ontario

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MDM4U Culminating ProjectUnemployment and
Divorce in Ontario

• By
• Rachel Wang
• Glebe Collegiate Institute
• For Mr. Garvin Boyle

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Contents

• Introduction
• Thesis Question and Hypothesis
• Data Preparation
• Analysis of Graphs
• Observations
• Interpretations
• Conclusions and Considerations for the next
  project
• Summary

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Introduction

• This is the second portion of the culminating
  project for the MDM4U Data Management course.
• The purpose of this project was to retrieve and
  investigate possible relationship(s) between
  variables.
• Five variables were retrieved from the Statistics
  Canada database
• Rate of induced abortions per 1,000 females in
  between the ages of 25 and 29.
• Unemployment rate of population in between the
  ages of 25 and 44.
• Total number of divorces.
• Rate of crimes of violence per 100,000
  individuals.
• Net financial debt, in millions of dollars, of
  the Ontario provincial government

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Thesis and Hypothesis

• Thesis
• What correlation exists between the conditions of
  economy and the stability of families in Ontario?
• Hypothesis
• It was hypothesized that a strong positive
  correlation exists between the unemployment rate
  and the rate of divorce. When people become
  unemployed, the standard of living decreases
  dramatically, and this may cause psychological
  issues such as anger and depression. This may
  result in disagreement and arguments between a
  couple, and may eventually lead to divorce.

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Data Preparation

• Of the five variables that were collected, three
  variables were measured in rates, which meant
  that they were unaffected by population and
  inflation
• However, the total number of divorces contained
  population-driven data, while the net financial
  debt contained inflation-driven data.
• To remove the effect of population, the total
  number of divorces had to be divided by the total
  population of Ontario, so that the divorce per
  capita was found.
• To remove the effect of inflation, current year
  dollars must be converted into constant dollars
  by dividing a value by its corresponding Consumer
  Price Index, which measures the changes in
  consumer prices, and multiplying by 100. In this
  case, the base year was 2002, which meant that
  the financial debt in 2002 will stay the same.

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Year Rate of Induced Abortions Unemployment Rate Number of Divorces per capita Rate of Crimes of Violence Net Financial Debt in millions of constant dollars
1984 14.1 7.9 0.0032 684.5 36188.6
1985 13.2 7.1 0.0030 723.2 38347.9
1986 13.2 6.3 0.0039 769.1 43040.2
1987 13.6 5.4 0.0054 842.8 44179.9
1988 14.0 4.6 0.0044 867.3 44794.4
1989 15.2 4.8 0.0041 907.3 43487.4
1990 19.5 5.8 0.0037 968.1 47881.8
1991 20.4 9.0 0.0035 1042.6 49716.0
1992 21.4 10.1 0.0038 1045.2 61611.8
1993 22.9 10.4 0.0036 1051.7 75321.1
1994 23.5 9.1 0.0037 1003.9 90970.5
1995 24.4 8.2 0.0035 962.4 99130.2
1996 24.9 8.7 0.0030 933.8 109995.5
1997 23.7 7.4 0.0028 908.6 115994.4
1998 22.1 6.2 0.0029 896.4 119356.5
1999 20.7 5.5 0.0030 852.8 117706.7
2000 20.7 4.9 0.0029 886.7 112943.2
2001 20.1 5.6 0.0029 874.4 105244.9
2002 19.7 6.5 0.0028 828.7 103510.0
2003 19.1 6.0 0.0029 779.5 99913.3
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One-Variable Analysis

• The twenty data points of unemployment rates were
  plotted into five intervals. The graph appeared
  to be slightly right skewed, with the bin of the
  lowest interval having the highest frequencies,
  but generally uniform distribution. This
  suggests that the Ontario economy is in a stable
  condition, and the trend is that during majority
  of the twenty years, the unemployment rates were
  fairly low.

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The data collected during the twenty years form
1984 to 2003 were put into five bins of equal
intervals. The graph appeared to be right
skewed, in which most number of data points were
located in the bin with the lowest values, and
least number of data points were located in the
bin with the highest values. This suggests that
most married couples in Ontario were content with
their marriages, and that they were in good
relationship with their spouses.
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Two-Variable Analysis

• The unemployment rate of population between the
  ages of 25 and 44 in Ontario from 1984 to 2003
  was placed on the x-axis, while the number of
  divorces per capita in Ontario over the same time
  interval was placed on the y-axis. A regression
  line was plotted to show the relationship.

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• Observations
• There appeared to be a very weak negative
  relationship between the two variables, with a
  coefficient of determination of 0.0129.
• The closer the value is to 1, the stronger the
  correlation.
• Interpretations
• This weak relationship indicates that the
  financial stability of a family has little effect
  on the decision of a couple to get divorced, and
  occasionally, when the unemployment rate
  increases, the divorce rate actually decreases.
  It may be possible that during financially
  difficult times is when couples support each
  other and stay together. When the standard of
  living is stable and high, people become
  unsatisfied, and problems arise which may result
  in divorce.

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• Of the other five variables that were collected,
  other than the two variables that were the
  interests of the study, correlation graphs of
  other variables can also be created. The net
  financial debt of the Ontario provincial
  government and the rate of induced abortions were
  graphed using a scatter plot.

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• Observations
• The coefficient of determination, which indicates
  the strength of the relationship, was above 0.5,
  which indicates a moderately strong positive
  relationship between the two variables.
• Interpretations
• When the government is in debt, it indicates a
  weak economy.
• When the economy is not strong, it may be
  reflected in elements such as decrease in
  employment rate and inflation resulting in
  increase in prices of products, which will
  decrease the standard of living of individuals.
• When a person is in financial difficulty, he/she
  may become unable to support a newborn child, so
  those who find themselves being pregnant may seek
  induced abortions as a solution.

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Conclusions and consideration for a next project

• The hypothesis was that a strong correlation
  existed between the unemployment rate and number
  of divorce per capita.
• The observation was that there was no correlation
  between the two variables.
• The hypothesis was incorrect.
• In the next project, some other aspects of
  society can be considered, and find factors that
  have an effect on the rate of divorce.

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Summary

• The primary interest of this project was to find
  possible causes for divorce in Ontario.
• Five variables were retrieved and modified, all
  of which contained data collected within Ontario
• Rate of Induced Abortions
• Unemployment rate
• Number of divorce per capita
• Rate of crimes of violence
• Net financial debt of Ontario provincial
  government
• The hypothesis was that an increased unemployment
  rate would cause an increase in the number of
  divorce per capita.
• Through analysis of graphs, it was observed that
  there was no correlation between the two
  variables, so the hypothesis was proven to be
  false.
• A strong positive correlation was found to exist
  between the rate of induced abortions and the net
  financial debt of the provincial government.