Spatio-temporal%20information%20in%20society:%20modelling

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Spatio-temporal information in society modelling

• Gilberto Câmara

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What is a model?

• A model is a simplified representation of a
  phenomenon, process, actor, system, or any
  complex entity.

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Examples of models atom

• Concept
• Indivisible entities over which matter is built
• Model
• Dalton, 1807 ? solid sphere
• Thomson, 1904 ? plum pudding
• Rutherford, 1911 ? Positive nucleus negative
  electrosphere
• Bohr, 1913 ? Nucleus electrons with different
  levels of energy
• Schrondinger, Pauli ? Subatomic particles

Bohr, 1913
Dalton, 1807
Thomson, 1904
Rutherford, 1911
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Examples of models Shape of the Earth

• Concept
• Place where we live. Environment.
• Model
• Flat ? archaic belief
• Spherical
• Pythagoras (AD 570) ? Suggested that Earth could
  be spherical
• Aristotle (AD 330) ? First evidence
  semi-circular shadow at moon
• Eratosthenes (AD 240) ? First estimate of Earths
  circumference
• Mathematics
• Scotsman McLaurin (1742) ? Flat
• Carl Jacobi (1834) ? Elipsoidal
• Henri Poincaré (1885) ? Periform
• Dynamic ? Modern geodesy

Dynamic geoid
Flat
Spheric
Ellipsoid
Periform
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Earth Our Environment
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What is a Model?
Deforestation in Amazonia in 2020?

• simplified representation of a process
• Model entities attributes interactions
  change rules

graphics INPE, Pesquisa FAPESP
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Computational models
Connect expertise from different fields Make the
different conceptions explicit
If (... ? ) then ...
Desforestation?
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Computational models
Connect expertise from different fields Make the
different conceptions explicit
Territory (Geography)
Money (Economy)
Culture (Antropology)
Modelling (GIScience)
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A typical spatial model What causes tropical
deforestation?
source Espindola, 2012
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Dynamic Models
Time t
Time t 1
F(S)
S
World
E(S)
E(S)
f(s)
s
Model
Source Miller and Page 2005?
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Dynamic Models
1997
2007
?
S
?
?
World
Modell
f(s)
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Hanna Fry, CASA, UCL
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Toblers first law in a connected world?
People still live in places. The space of places
is a consequence of human history. However,
function and power in our societies are organized
in the space of flows. Flows of capital, flows of
information, flows of technology, flows of
organizational interactions, flows of images,
sounds and symbols. (Castells, The Rise of
Network Society).
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Dynamic Spatial Models
f (It)
f (It1)
f (It2)
f ( Itn )
F
F
. .
"A dynamical spatial model is a computational
representation of a real-world process where a
location on the earths surface changes in
response to variations on external and internal
dynamics" (Peter Burrough)
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Dynamic Spatial Models
graphics Cláudia Almeida

Tnow - 20
Tnow 10
Tnow
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Which is the better model?
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Question 1 for human-environment models
What ontological kinds (data types) are required
for human-environment models?
Fields
Cells (objects)
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Concepts for spatial dynamical models
Events and processes
Resilience
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Concepts for spatial dynamical models
vulnerability
degradation
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Concepts for spatial dynamical models
biodiversity
sustainability
and much more
Human-environmental models need to describe
complex concepts (and store their attributes in a
database)
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Question 2 for human-environment models
What models are needed to describe human actions?
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Clocks, clouds or ants?
Clouds statistical distributions
Clocks deterministic equations
Ants emerging behaviour
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Statistics Humans as clouds
ya0 a1x1 a2x2 ... aixi E

• Establishes statistical relationship with
  variables that are related to the phenomena under
  study
• Basic hypothesis stationary processes
• Example CLUE Model (University of Wageningen)

Fonte Verburg et al, Env. Man., Vol. 30, No. 3,
pp. 391405
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Driving factors of change (deforestation)
source Aguiar (2006)
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Statistics Humans as clouds
source Aguiar (2006)
Statistical analysis of deforestation
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Where does this image come from?
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Where does this image come from?
Map of the web (Barabasi) (could be brain
connections)
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Information flows in Nature
Ant colonies live in a chemical world
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Conections and flows are universal
Yeast proteins (Barabasi and Boneabau, SciAm,
2003)
Scientists in Silicon Valley (Fleming and Marx,
Calif Mngt Rew, 2006)
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Information flows in the brain
Neurons transmit electrical information, which
generate conscience and emotions
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Information flows generate cooperation
Foto National Cancer Institute, EUA
http//visualsonline.cancer.gov/
White cells attact a cancer cell (cooperative
activity)
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Information flows in planet Earth
Mass and energy transfer between points in the
planet
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From galaxies.
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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to cyclones 100 km
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Gene expression and cell interaction
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
Amoeba
Ribosome
Root Tip
E Coli
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The processing of information by the brain
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Animal societies and the emergence of culture
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Results of human society such as economies
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
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Complex adaptative systems
How come that an ecosystem with all its diverse
species functions and exhibits patterns of
regularity?

• How come that a city with many inhabitants
  functions and exhibits patterns of regularity?

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What are complex adaptive systems?

• Systems composed of many interacting parts that
  evolve and adapt over time.
• Organized behavior emerges from the simultaneous
  interactions of parts without any global plan.

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What are complex adaptive systems?
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Universal Computing
Computing studies information flows in natural
systems...
...and how to represent and work with information
flows in artificial systems