Common%20Steps%20in%20Foresight

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Foresight processes, practices and methodologies
Rafael Popper rafael.popper_at_manchester.ac.uk PRE
ST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research,
University of Manchester
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Guides Handbooks

• The Handbook of Technology Foresight Concepts
  and Practice (2008)
• Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure
  Foresight (2007)
• Global Foresight Outlook (2007)
• The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook
• Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated
  into EU languages)
• UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Manual

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Process A
The EUFORIA case
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Work plan
http//prest.mbs.ac.uk/euforia
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Process B
The SCOPE case
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Methodology
Scanning Desk studies (national
reports sub-contracted)
Validation of desk studies (May-June 2005)
Drivers trends (May-June 2005)
Scenarios (June-July 2005)
Validation Prioritisation (August-September
2005)
Recommendations (December 2005 January 2006)
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Process C
The iKnow case
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Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart
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Workplan
The iKnow case
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A Foresight ProcessExample of Work Plan /
Timeline
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A Foresight ProcessExample of Work Plan / Logic
Chart
Knowledge Generation
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A Foresight ProcessExample of Work Packages
(tasks deliverables)
Work package number 5 5 Start date or starting event Start date or starting event Start date or starting event Start date or starting event 10 10 10 10
Work package title Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries)
Activity Type RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD
Participant number 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8
Person-months per participant 2.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 0.20 0.20
Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions.
Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1 Survey preparation In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2 Sampling and identification of respondents A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes (i) higher education institutions (HEI) (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI (iii) research funding organisations (iv) governmental bodies (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3 Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based) As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4 Country and cross-country analysis Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5 Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools
Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17 Deliverables D5.1 Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery month 15 D5.2 Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery month 15 D5.3 Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery month 15 D5.4 Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery month 15 D5.5 Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery month 15 D5.6 Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery month 16 D5.7 Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery month 17
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Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond
14
The Foresight Process

• Quite often foresight is understood as a process
  with various complementary phases.
• Pre-Foresight
• Recruitment
• Generation
• Action
• Renewal

Miles (2002), Popper (2008)
15
The Foresight Process (R. Popper, 2008)
Step 5 evaluating
KNOWLEDGE
Step 4 shaping the future through strategic
planning
Step 3 generating (new) knowledge through the
exploration, analysis and anticipation of
possible futures
Step 2 mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 1 scanning and understanding major ST
developments, trends and issues
16
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Objectives and Rationales
• To map existing strengths/weaknesses and explore
  complementarities/overlaps of the networking
  centres/organisations
• To identify future ST and socio-economic
  opportunities and threats that should be
  addressed
• To illustrate the unsustainability of the old
  management and business models and to demonstrate
  the need for international collaboration or
  cluster formation
• To function as a forum for involvement and
  participation of stakeholders in different
  countries
• To build a strong vision that the participants of
  the network/cluster can sign up to
• To strengthen the strategic capacity of managers
  of the national centres, as well as national
  policy makers

17
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Selection criteria (if applicable!) Futures Requir
e looking ahead at least 10 years, in areas where
the outcomes are uncertain. This typically occurs
where the future direction of change is rapid,
current trends are uncertain or different trends
may converge ST Have science and technology as
the main drivers of change or are capable of
impacting substantially on future scenarios
Value-added Impact Have outcomes that can be
influenced, to an extent that is significant for
one or more of the economy, society and the
environment Value added Existing work Are not
covered by work carried on elsewhere. However,
they must build from areas of active research
Networks Require an inter-disciplinary approach
to the science, and bring together groups from
academia, business and government. They must not
be capable of resolution by a single group and
Buy-in Command the support of the groups most
likely to be able to influence the future and be
owned by a lead government department.
18
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Action
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Renewal

• Expected outcomes
• An efficiently functioning network/cluster of
  upgraded facilities, better placed to
• respond to emerging scientific developments and
  growing multi-disciplinarity
• meet the demands for new and diverse services
• ensure better access to unique equipment and
  data bases
• attract young researchers, and
• improve harvesting and exploitation of existing
  knowledge.

19
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Action
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Renewal
SponsorsThe exercise is promoted by national
agencies (e.g. SENA, Colciencias, etc.). In
addition, the international sponsors could be
considered (e.g. CAB, CAF, etc.). Project
teamThe exercise is organised and managed by a
mix of strategic planners from SENA and an
national/international consultancy specialising
in 3D and Foresight. DurationGiven the
complicated nature of the issues and
institutional landscape, the exercise has
18-month duration. Time horizon7, 10, 15 years
(dependent on the issue under consideration, e.g.
platforms, markets).
20
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Participation
• Its distributed nature which is required for
  local knowledge and embeddedness has the need
  for
• regular face-to-face meetings and
• special attention to be paid to communication
  processes.
• Steering group In addition, a national/regional
  steering group is built of
• facility/company directors and
• national policy makers
• together with several small national working
  parties of
• leading scientists and trainers
• research managers.

21
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Action
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Renewal

• Panels / Working groupsNational working groups
  are set up around each of the existing centres
  in order to
• collect and process national data
• make sense of foresight results in a localised
  context.
• There is a great deal of overlap in membership
  between all of these groups to ensure
  communication, while the working language of the
  transnational groups is English.
• Experts / MembersMembers are drawn mostly from
• research centres,
• national ministries, and other interested
  stakeholders, including
• business representatives and branch associations.

22
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Combining methods to
• Improve existing knowledge
• Literature review
• Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Surveys
• Brainstorming sessions
• Delphi
• Create new knowledge
• Scenario writing
• Scenario workshops
• Backcasting

23
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Combining methods to
• Improve existing knowledge
• Literature review
• Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Surveys
• Brainstorming sessions
• Delphi
• Create new knowledge
• Scenario writing
• Scenario workshops
• Backcasting

• Stage
• The exercise begins with an extensive programme
  of deskwork involving
• the preparation of future outlooks on several
  of the sub-fields that constitute the area,
• the mapping of existing strengths and weaknesses,
  
• the exploration of complementarities and overlaps
  across the current national centres, and
• an international benchmarking exercise

1
2
3
4
5
24
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Combining methods to
• Improve existing knowledge
• Literature review
• Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Surveys
• Brainstorming sessions
• Delphi
• Create new knowledge
• Scenario writing
• Scenario workshops
• Backcasting

• Stage
• Starting a little later but also working in
  parallel, a survey is carried out with
  scientists, industrialists, and public policy
  makers in order to
• capture the likely ST needs of user communities
  (the application sector)
• identify key technologies
• Following this, national and international
  working groups brainstorm around the emerging
  results of the exercise with the purpose of
• generating topic statements for an
  (inter)national online Delphi

1
2
3
4
5
25
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Combining methods to
• Improve existing knowledge
• Literature review
• Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Surveys
• Brainstorming sessions
• Delphi
• Create new knowledge
• Scenario writing
• Scenario workshops
• Backcasting

Stage Delphi is a means of consulting more
widely around issues of uncertainty and likely
importance.
1
2
3
4
5
Statement 1 Statement 2 Statement
3 Statement n
26
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Combining methods to
• Improve existing knowledge
• Literature review
• Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Surveys
• Brainstorming sessions
• Delphi
• Create new knowledge
• Scenario writing
• Scenario workshops
• Backcasting

Stage Delphi is also used as a prioritisation
tool, for example, identifying IST application
areas contributing to EU goals
1
2
3
4
5

• TOP 5 AREAS
• Education and learning
• Social welfare/ public services
• Government
• Work organisation
• Cultural diversity

27
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Combining methods to
• Improve existing knowledge
• Literature review
• Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Surveys
• Brainstorming sessions
• Delphi
• Create new knowledge
• Scenario writing
• Scenario workshops
• Backcasting

• Stage
• Drawing upon the results of earlier steps, the
  project team draft several scenarios that portray
  the regions scientific and industrial profiles
  in different worlds, depending upon
• the level of collaboration between stakeholders,
  and
• the governance and renewal of the national
  centres.
• These are used to
• illustrate to a wide audience the
  unsustainability of business as usual, and
• demonstrate the need for (inter)national
  collaboration

1
2
3
4
5
28
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• Combining methods to
• Improve existing knowledge
• Literature review
• Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Surveys
• Brainstorming sessions
• Delphi
• Create new knowledge
• Scenario writing
• Scenario workshops
• Backcasting

• Stage
• The desk-scenarios are used in a scenario
  workshop to
• generate a strong future vision (in the form of a
  success scenario) that the national ministries,
  national centres, and national communities can
  sign up to, and
• lead to the proposal of concrete recommendations
  for moving forward through a backcasting exercise

1
2
3
4
5
29
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Recruitment
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Renewal

• However, the elaboration of the success scenario
  on the future network/cluster requires the
  development of actions under several important
  topics, such as
• design of common research agendas for applied and
  advanced research
• opportunities for acquiring and sharing
  equipment, knowledge and skills
• new access schemes to national centres
  resources
• new collaboration modes and diversification of
  services
• increase in multidisciplinarity of research
  fields
• gaining pan-European significance
• optimisation of knowledge exploitation and
  innovation processes
• communication across the network of facilities
  and
• design of the infrastructure of the networked
  facility or cluster (for example, centralized
  with sub-nodes, virtual, etc.), determined by its
  function.

30
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Action
Recruitment
Renewal

• Once (a) the results have been generated and (b)
  recommendations articulated, the national and
  international structures put in place are
  transformed into implementation bodies. In this
  phase, an important challenge is
• to attract the necessary funding from national
  governments and the EC to carry through the
  recommendations. But with clear plans based upon
  extensive research and consultation, it is much
  easier to convince funding bodies of the merits
  of the network.
• Product benefitsForesight has created a
  codified output that is useful for follow-up
  action
• Process benefitsForesight has also provided a
  forum for the involvement and participation of
  stakeholders in different countries. The
  strategic dialogue space afforded by foresight
  has aided communication, understanding and
  collaboration across geographical and
  organisational boundaries that would otherwise
  have been difficult to bridge.

31
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Action
Pre-Foresight
Generation
Recruitment
Renewal

• Since the network/cluster could become a large
  facility even with pan-European significance,
  regular strategic thinking exercises should be
  conducted for
• the identification of major breakthroughs in
  related fields that might require adjustments of
  the network/clusters vision.
• This could be done by
• launching successive rounds of foresight
• establishing a permanent horizon scanning unit
• organising regular monitoring, evaluation and
  knowledge dissemination forums
• Etc.

32
A Foresight ProcessSelecting methods

• Most Foresight methods are NOT different from
  those used in other disciplines. Foresighters use
  to borrow and adapt methods from management,
  planning and social sciences.
• The uniqueness of foresight methods is the
  combination of
• futures thinking
• networking and
• policy-making.

There are plenty of methods that can be used in
Foresight Processes
33
There are, of course, many other methods that can
be used33 methods classified by Type of
Technique
Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative
Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions. Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate (e.g. brainstorming, interviews) Methods measuring variables and apply statistical analyses, using or generating (hopefully) reliable and valid data (e.g. economic indicators) Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgements and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions)
Backcasting Brainstorming Citizens panels Conferences/workshops Essays /Scenario writing Expert panels Genius forecasting Interviews Literature review Morphological analysis Relevance trees /logic charts Role play / Acting Scanning Scenario /Scenario workshops Science fictioning (SF) Simulation gaming Surveys SWOT analysis Weak signals /Wildcards Benchmarking Bibliometrics Indicators / time series analysis Modelling Patent analysis Trend extrapolation / impact analysis Cross-impact / structural analysis Delphi Key / Critical technologies Multi-criteria analysis Polling / Voting Quantitative scenarios / SMIC Roadmapping Stakeholder analysis
Source R. Popper (2008)
34
The Foresight Diamond(methods by type of
knowledge source)
Strongly influenced by imagination
FLACSO 2008 Focus on Scenarios
Strongly influenced by experiences and knowledge
sharing
Strongly influenced by discussions and knowledge
exchange
Strongly influenced by facts data
35
Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond
36
Methodology X (Forward)
Evidence Broad Expertise Wild
Creativity Interaction Local
Expertise Strategic Creativity
Methodology X (Forward)
Scanning
Delphi
Wild Cards
Citizen panel
Large-scale exploratory study assessing the
likeliness of occurrence and possible impacts of
main issues highlighted by the scanning activity.
Workshop-type activity aimed at identifying
possible events which may challenge the
occurrence of highly probable situations.
Conference-type activity aimed at identifying
major public concerns on critical issues.
Internal activity (possibly desk-work) aimed at
synthesising outcomes in terms of current
strengths and weaknesses as well as future
opportunities and threats.
Expert panel
Reduced group of key stakeholders looking at
future implications of main findings.
Detailed analysis of main issues around a
particular sector/theme of study (sub-contracted).
Scanning
SWOT
37
Methodology X (Backward)
Strategic Creativity Local Expertise Interact
ion Wild Creativity Broad Expertise Evidence
Methodology X (Backward)
SWOT
Expert panels
SWOT
Citizen panels
Wild Cards
Internal activity aimed at identifying the
success or failure of similar policy
recommendations being implemented in comparable
contexts, and better informing decision-making.
Groups of experts looking at future implications
of SWOT findings and clustering main issues into
broader dimensions, such as social,
technological, economic, etc.
Regional task forces contextualising main issues
and evaluating public acceptance.
Large-scale normative study aimed at formulating
policy recommendations.
Delphi
internal activity aimed at identifying disruptive
events and situations.
Scanning
Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed at
identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities
and threats related to a sector / theme /
technology / etc.
38
SCOPE 2015Scenarios for Research and technology
development cooperation with Europe
EU-LA COOPERATION
http//prest.mbs.ac.uk/prest/SCOPE
39
Project context and objectives

• Scenarios of future science and technology
  developments in developing countries 2015
• Project supported by DG Research Directorate K-2
  Science and Technology Foresight
• Objectives
• To produce scenarios for the year 2015 focused on
  contextualised ST developments in selected
  regions of developing countries
• To analyse the consequences of the scenarios for
  Europe and European RTD policy
• To use the above to provide advice to the
  European Union in the field for RTD policies in
  relation to developing countries.

40
Regions and selected countries
Region Countries
Sub-Saharan Africa Botswana Ghana Kenya Nigeria Senegal
Latin America Argentina Chile Colombia Venezuela
Commonwealth of Independent States Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Ukraine
Maghreb and Mashreq (Egypt) Jordan Morocco Tunisia
41
Regional Cooperation
SCOPE 2015 LA countries (Argentina, Colombia,
Chile and Venezuela) prepared a common scenario
for the future cooperation on Foresight
activities under the framework of LARA (Latin
American Research Area)
2015
42
Thematic Areas for Latin America

1. Biotechnology on agro, health and clothing e.g.
   genomic, proteomic
2. ICT software, services, applications, cultural
   and artistic content, Communication, Informatics
   Microelectronics, bioinformatics
3. Natural resources and environmental sciences
   e.g. environmental certification of
   agro-processes, Biodiversity
4. Health
5. Agro-science and agriculture - Food engineering
   and technology, Food security
6. Energy and gas, nuclear technology
7. Material Sciences - metals, polymers,
   nanotechnology
8. Natural products leather, textiles and wood
9. Aquaculture and fishing
10. Space technology
11. Clean technologies for bio-products and
    bio-processes
12. Mining
13. Transport
14. Fine chemistry
15. Process engineering
16. Electronics

EU PriorityThemes

1. Health
2. Food, agro biotechnology
3. ICT
4. Nanotech.
5. Energy
6. Environment
7. Transport
8. Socio-economic
9. Security and space

43
Socio-economic Themes for LA

• Regional and territorial integration problems
• Internal exclusion problems
• learning from EU experiences with NMS
• Social inclusion
• Social innovation
• Economy sociology of technological change
• Work and employment
• Entrepreneurship

44
Cooperation Drivers
1. GOVERNANCE AND GLOBALI-SATION
2. EDUCATION AND HUMAN RESOURCES
3. SUSTAINABILITY
4. GLOBALISATION, ECO. IND. LANSCAPE
5. REGIONAL INTEGRATION
6. RTDI EFFORTS PUBLIC PRIV. SECTOR
7. PRIVATE SEC. THE LOCAL TECH. CAP.
8. RTDI AND REGIONAL NEEDS
9. DONOR STRATEGY
10. LINKS WITH RTD COOPERATION
45
Forms of cooperation

• Strengthening the SMEs
• especially building capacities (creativity,
  innovation, design) of human resources
• Technological transfer
• Building research capabilities
• mobility programmes
• Building capabilities of primary education
  educators
• Recognising labs and certificates of the
  countries
• Creating a joint observatory for ST and funds
• Creating markets and investments

46
Actions that needs to be taken

1. Targeting societys needs
2. Reaching society
3. Mapping and exploiting regional needs and
   commonalities
4. Strengthening the SMEs
5. Technological transfer
6. Recognising labs and certificates o