What

1
Whats Next for Welfare in New York?

• Lawrence M. Mead
• Department of Politics
• New York University

2
Nationally, welfare reform has meant

• Tougher requirements on recipients
• Work tests.
• Stronger sanctions.
• Time limits.
• More benefits to support work.
• Favorable effects
• Higher work levels.
• Caseload fall.
• Lower poverty.

3
New Yorks results are similar

• Statewide
• Caseload fall of around 60, 1995-2005
• Sharp fall in child poverty.
• In NYC
• Sharp rise in work by disadvantaged mothers.
• All public assistance drops 64, 1995-2005
• Sharp fall in child poverty.

4
But has NYS really reformed?

• State retained partial sanctions.
• No time limit.
• Work issues delegated to counties.
• Division in Albany.
• The danger of going backward.

5
Who implemented TANF best?
Score Good gov Big gov Small gov
6 MN OR UT WI
5 KS MI WA OH TN
4 CA MO NJ NY RI
3 CO MA AZ NC WV
2 AL MS TX
1 FL GA
6
Reauthorization of TANF

• Tougher 50 participation standard.
• 60-month Safety Net now included under the work
  test.
• NYSs participation rateadequate to date.
• But reaching 50 will be difficult due to
• Partial sanction.
• Lack of a time limit.
• The election is unlikely to change this.

7
What to do now?

• Abandon entitlement
• Move to full family sanctions.
• Phase out 60-month Safety Net for families.
• Possible lesser changes.
• Replace entitlement with casework.
• Improve welfare work programs.

8
Would this cause hardship?

• The vast majority of recipients can work.
• Work first is better than training.
• Honoring the constitutional commitment to the
  needy.

9
Beyond entitlement

• Needy families should go to work first.
• Then government can do more to help them.
• Goal should be to
• Raise work levels further.
• Reduce dependency.
• Rebuild aid on the other side of entitlement.
• Candidates need to address how to do this.
• New York could lead.