Title: World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
1World Meteorological OrganizationWorking
together in weather, climate and water
WMO
- Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management
- By
- Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
- Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO
- Geoffrey Love, Ph.D.
- Director of Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction
Services Departments - CCL Technical Conference
- 16-18 February, 2010
- Antalya, Turkey
www.wmo.int
2Paradigm shift from post disaster response to
Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
- In most countries disaster risk management has
been focused on post disaster response
(humanitarian issue!) - In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework
for Action 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan) - New paradigm in disaster risk management focused
on reducing risks through prevention and
mitigation (Development issues) - International community is working to assist
countries in implementing the HFA
Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM
provides a wide range of opportunities for
meteorological, hydrological and climate
services!
3Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by
Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Loss of life
Number of events
Source EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université
Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Economic losses
90 of events 70 of casualties 75 of economic
losses are related to hydro-meteorological
hazards and conditions.
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
Disasters
4Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters,
Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural
hazards (1980-2007)
Number of events
Loss of life
Economic Losses
Source EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database - Université Catholique de
Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
5Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related
Extremes are on the Rise !
Energy
Transportation
Aral Sea
Water Resource Management
Intensity
Strong Wind
People
Agriculture
Urban areas
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Drought
Heatwaves
Frequency
6Six Components of An Effective National Disaster
Risk Management Framework
Alignment of clear policies, legislation,
planning, resources at
national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral,
Multi-agency)
1
Risk Transfer
Risk Assessment
Risk Reduction
- Historical Hazard databases
- Hazard statistics
- Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard
trend analysis - Exposed assets vulnerability
- Risk analysis tools
Preparedness (saving lives) early warning
systems emergency planning and response
Prevention (Reduce economic losses) Medium to
long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
2
CATastrophe insurance bonds Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
5
3
4
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and
training across agencies
6
7Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for
Preventing Disaster Risks!
Hazard Analysis and Mapping
Exposure and Vulnerability
Potential Loss Estimates
This information is critical for decision-making
and development of strategies to reduce the risks
Number of lives at risk
- at risk
- Destruction of buildings and infrastructure
- Reduction in crop yields
- Business interruption
- Impacts
- population density
- agricultural land
- urban grid
- Infrastructure
- Businesses
Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping
Need for historical and real time data
Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and
trend analysis
Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis
tools
Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard,
asset and exposure information
8Estimating the Risk with Consideration for
Climate Variability and Changes!
1 Hazard Assessment
Historical Statisitical hazard analysis events
Future climate hazard trends (seasonal, inter
annual, decadal)
1 Hazard Mapping
Hazard Model
Hazardestimate
Hazardmaps
Land cover and elevation
Vulnerability /Damage Model
Risk maps
3 Risk Mapping Loss Estimation
Exposures
Probable Loss estimate
2 Damage Functions
Cost Benefit
Portfoliolosses / mitigation options
2 Asset Inventory and Valuation
Scenario Events
4 Risk Atlas and Risk Management tools
9Risk Assessment Requires a Variety of Climate
Services.
- Historical and real-time hazard databases and
metadata - Statistical hazard analysis and mapping tools
- Forward looking hazard trend analysis
- - Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts
- - Probabilitic climate forecasts and long-term
hazard trend analysis (seasonal to interannual,
decadal)
10WMO 2006 Country-level DRR Survey Indicates that
.
- Main needs are
- Modernisation of observation networks
- Data rescue
- Data management systems
- Maintaining standard historical hazard database
and metadata - Hazard analysis and mapping tools
- Statistical analysis
- Climate modelling
Over 70 of NMHS are challenged in supporting
risk assessment!!!
Source 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey
(http//www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.ht
ml)
11Increasingly more countries are developping Early
Warning Systems for fast on-set events.
1
National Government DRR coordination mechanisms
Local Government responsible for emergency
preparedness and response
Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination
4
Warning dissemination
feedback
Warning Dissemination
feedback
5
4
5
Community Emergency Plans and Prepared
3
Coordinated National Technical Agencies and
Ministries
4
Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Heal
th, Agricuture (etc.)
2
Warning dissemination
feedback
5
12WMO has partnered up with other agencies to
Document Good Practices and develop Guidelines
for Early Warning Systems
Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with
Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative,
financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles
Synthesis of First set of Good Practices (5 more
good practices on the way)Role of National
Metrological and Hydrological Services
Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme
Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System
France Vigilance System
Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness
Programme
USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
Germany The Warning Management of the Deutscher
Wetterdienst
First EWS Publication of a series being
published by WMO and Springer Verlag in 2010
13 Loss of life from hydro-meteorological disasters
are decreasing
BUT economic losses are on the way up!
Source EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database
14. to support sectoral risk assessment and
management!
Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools
provide unprecedented opportunities
- Infrastructure and Urban planning
- Land zoning
- Insurance / Finance
- Agricultural productivity and food security
- Tourism
- Health epidemics
- Water resource management
15Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance
Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms
What type of Financial tools?
Which Risks?
Who Could Benefit?
Requirements for Hydro-Met Services?
Financial risks
CAT insurance bonds Weather-indexed insurance
and derivatives Regional Catastrophe Insurance
Facilities Other emerging products
- Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for
development of these markets!) - Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts
- Decadal climate trend analysis
- Long term trend analysis (long-term market
strategy)
Government Companies Individuals Other
WMO Workshop http//www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/ev
ents/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
16WMO Workshop on Catastrophe and Weather-Indexed
Insurance December 2007, WMO HQ
- Participants (8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological
Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) - USER Perspectives were discussed
- Information requirements (data and forecasts)
- Availability and accessibility of historical and
real-time data - Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other
data value-added services (??) - Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data
(for contract design and settlement) - Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts
- Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis
(reporting on climate risk, solvency analysis and
long-term strategy) - Technical support and Service delivery needs
http//www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wr
m-markets-2007/index_en.html
17Major Initiatives Underway for Development of
Climate Services for (Re)Insurance
- Drivers are
- Legislative new requirements (USA, UK and EU)
for the companies to report of their climate risk - Industry Funding research and partnering with
climate research community to develop relevant
climate services - Climate Community and Met services Vary
receptive and have initiated various projects and
activities (UK Met Office, NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, U
of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and many
more) - WMO is engaging to facilitate more extended
collaboration and support the scaling up these
initiatives for benefit of more countries around
the world
18Example of Climate Services in Risk
Reduction(Many other examples exist)
- Emergency Services
- Government Authorities
- Insurance
- Public, Media
- Urban planners
- Local to national Governments
- Banks
- Insurance
DECISION MAKERS
- Local National Government
- Insurance
- Suppliers
- Public, Media
- Negotiators
- Parlimentarian
- Local/nationalgovernments
- Private sector
- Strategic Planning
- Building codes
- Infrastructure Urban Development and
Retrofitting - Land Zoning and Planning
- Urban coastal Emergency Preparedness
- Inventory Food, Construction Materials, Shelter,
Emergency funds
- International negotiations and agreements
- National policies and legilation
- Emergency planning activation and response
- Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses
DECISIONS
SERVICES
Future Decadal trend analysis of severity and
intensity of tropical cyclones
Climate Change scenarios IPCC Process
Short to medterm weather forecasts Tropical
cyclone Forecasts and warnings
Probabilistic seasonal forecasts Probabilities
of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones
Next hour to 10 days
Decade
Season to year
Long term Scenarios
19WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for
DRM
- Identification of various user-communities and
their requirements - (eg Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water,
Insurance) - Increased investments in observations, data
rescue programmes and statistical analysis of
hazards - Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal,
interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented
opportunity for improved sectoral planning for
DRR - Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for
DRM - Need Operationalize climate forecasting and
analysis tools - Developing climate related information and
decision tools for DRR
20Managing Disaster and related Climate Risks
DRR National/Regional Projects (2007 Present)
Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World
Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO
Central Asia and Caucasus
WMO Shanghai MH-EWS Demo
South East Europe
South East Asia
Central America and Caribbean
SADC
Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in Multi-Hazard
EWS
21Key Messages
- Disaster and Climate Risk Management are
interlinked development issues - Development of Climate Services should be part of
the national development agenda and programming - There is need for
- Historical and real-time hazard databases and
statistical hazard analysis tools - Climate Research and Modeling targeting DRR
applications - Identification, segmentation of users and
understanding of their needs and requirements
(public and private sectors) - Decision tools based on climate/disaster risk
assessment for various sectors
22For more information please contact
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk
Reduction Programme World Meteorological
Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax.
41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi_at_WMO.int
http//www.wmo.int/disasters
23Leslie Malone Scientific Officer Climate
Prediction Adaptation Branch Climate Water
Department World Meteorological Organization Tel
41.22.730.8220 Fax 41.22.730.8042 Email
LMalone_at_wmo.int
Thank you Merci ??????? Gracias ???? ? ?