Larceny and Fraud Study

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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Update
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Background
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Embezzlement Study 1997-1998

• The Commission conducted a study of felony
  embezzlement cases to examine the relationship
  between the amount embezzled and sentencing
  outcomes.
• Analysis of felony embezzlement cases sentenced
  under truth-in-sentencing laws between January 1,
  1995, and June 30, 1997
• Since analysis revealed a relationship between
  dollar amount embezzled and the sentence
  received, new factors were added to Sections A,
  B, and C of the Fraud worksheets.

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Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000

• The following year, the Commission conducted a
  study of larceny and fraud cases to examine the
  relationship between the amount of money or value
  of property stolen and sentencing outcomes
• The Commission studied a sample of felony larceny
  and fraud cases sentenced in CY1998 and CY1999.
• Sample excluded embezzlement because it had been
  examined in the previous study.
• Certain other offenses were also excluded, such
  as motor vehicle theft and forging public record,
  since the statutory definition is not tied to
  value.

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Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000

• Final sample was 749 cases (309 larceny 440
  fraud).
• Supplemental data was collected on factors of
  interest that were not contained in automated
  data.
• Narratives from the Pre/Post-Sentence
  Investigation (PSI) reports
• Court records

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Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000

• Although many variations of the factors were
  tried, models with factors that were
  statistically significant were only marginally
  better than the existing guidelines model.
• The best models involved both dollar amount and a
  factor related to restitution and/or victim type.
• Adding such factors would have added a layer of
  complexity for users when scoring.

Commission took no action
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2013-2015 Study
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
Selection of Study Sample

• A large sample is preferred, as some cases will
  be eliminated in subsequent stages.
• Supplemental data may reveal a conviction for an
  excluded offense.
• Wrong VCC may have been used.
• Available data may be insufficient
  to include the offender.
• Strategy is similar to the original Larceny/Fraud
  Study in 1999-2000.

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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
Selection of Study Sample

• Sample was based on a stratified random sampling
  technique to under-sample grand larceny cases and
  over-sample other types of larcenies.
• To ensure adequate number of cases
  for non-grand larceny in the sample
• Sample includes embezzlement.
• Length of time since previous study
• Judges frequently cite dollar amount when
  sentencing above the guidelines

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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
Selection of Study Sample
Number of Cases

Grand Larceny 200
Embezzlement 600
Other Larcenies 400
Fraud 300

Total 1,500
For the analysis, the sampled cases will be
weighted to reflect each subgroups actual
proportion in the population.
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

• Dollar value of money or property stolen
• Type(s) of items
• Damage of items
• Money/items recovered
• Insurance coverage for items
• Location of offense
• Duration of offense
• Number of victims
• Type and Age of victim(s)
• Offender relationship to victim
• Status of restitution at time of sentencing
• Restitution ordered at sentencing

Supplemental Data Collection
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015
Possible Electronic Data Sources

• Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports
• 42 of the sampled cases were matched to PSI data
• Of these, 98 contained information in the
  offense narrative field
• Officer of the Court Remote Access (OCRA) System
• Contains scanned copies of court records
• Of the sampled cases, 49.6 occurred in a court
  with OCRA
• The majority of sampled cases (72.7) either had
  a PSI or occurred in an OCRA jurisdiction

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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015OCRA
Jurisdictions

Augusta Portsmouth
Bedford Prince William
Bristol Rockingham
Caroline Richmond City
Chesapeake Roanoke County
Danville Roanoke City
Dickenson Shenandoah
Dinwiddie Smyth
Fauquier Southampton
Fredericksburg Spotsylvania
Halifax Stafford
Hanover Staunton
Henrico Suffolk
Isle of Wight Tazewell
Loudoun Washington
Newport News Waynesboro
Norfolk Williamsburg
Northampton Winchester
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information
Available in OCRA
Stipulation of Facts
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information
Available in OCRA
Stipulation of Facts
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information
Available in OCRA
Sentencing Order
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information
Available in PSI
Offense Narrative
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Information
Available in PSI
Victim Information
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

• Law Enforcement Databases
• Commonwealths Attorneys files
• Victim Impact Statements
• Other Court records (paper files)
• Probation Office records

Other Potential Data Sources
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Cases in
Non-OCRA Courts without a PSI
Region 2 Northern Virginia Cases 38
Region 6 Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont Cases 66
Region 3 Central Virginia Cases 81
Region 4 Southwest Virginia Cases 100
Region 1 Tidewater Cases 83
Region 5 Southside Virginia Cases 41
Total 409
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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Revised Work
Plan
July 2014 June 2015 Data collection
June 2015 August 2015 Data analysis
September 2015 Present preliminary
results November 2015
Present proposal for guidelines revision
(if supported by data)
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(No Transcript)