A brief history of decision science

1
A brief history of decision science
Public Administration and Policy

• Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D.
• Center for Policy Research
• Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
• University at Albany
• State University of New York
• T.STEWART_at_ALBANY.EDU

2
Historical periods

• Pre WWII ( - 1939)
• WWII (1940-1980)
• Baby boomers (1970-2010)
• Children of baby boomers (2000-2040)
• Grandchildren of baby boomers

3
Pre WWII

• Germination of ideas, concepts, and theories
• Many of the ideas that form the basis for
  decision science existed before WWII.

4
Descartes, René (1596-1650)
Pre WWII

• I thought the following four rules would be
  enough, provided that I made a firm and constant
  resolution not to fail even once in the
  observance of them. The first was never to accept
  anything as true if I had not evident knowledge
  of its being so that is, carefully to avoid
  precipitancy and prejudice, and to embrace in my
  judgment only what presented itself to my mind so
  clearly and distinctly that I had no occasion to
  doubt it. The second, to divide each problem I
  examined into as many parts as was feasible, and
  as was requisite for its better solution. The
  third, to direct my thoughts in an orderly way
  beginning with the simplest objects, those most
  apt to be known, and ascending little by little,
  in steps as it were, to the knowledge of the most
  complex and establishing an order in thought
  even when the objects had no natural priority one
  to another. And the last, to make throughout such
  complete enumerations and such general surveys
  that I might be sure of leaving nothing out.
• 
  Discours de la Méthode, 1637.

5
Pascal, Blaise (1623-1662)
Pre WWII

• There are two types of mind ... the mathematical,
  and what might be called the intuitive. The
  former arrives at its views slowly, but they are
  firm and rigid the latter is endowed with
  greater flexibility and applies itself
  simultaneously to the diverse lovable parts of
  that which it loves.
• Discours sur les passions de l'amour, 1653.

6
Franklin, Benjamin (1706-1790)
Pre WWII

• I cannot, for want of sufficient premises, advise
  you what to determine, but if you please I will
  tell you how. My way is to divide half a sheet
  of paper by a line into two columns writing
  over the one Pro, and over the other Con. Then,
  doing three or four days consideration, I put
  down under the different heads short hints of the
  different motives, that at different time occur
  to me for or against the measure. When I have
  thus got them all together in one view, I
  endeavor to estimate the respective weights
  to find at length where the balance lies And,
  though the weight of reasons cannot be taken with
  the precision of algebraic quantities, yet, when
  each is thus considered, separately and
  comparatively, and the whole matter lies before
  me, I think I can judge better, and am less
  liable to make a rash step and in fact I have
  found great advantage for this kind of caution,
  in what may be called moral or prudential
  algebra.
• Letter to Joseph Priestly,
  September 19, 1772.

7
Poincaré, Jules Henri (1854-1912)
Pre WWII

• ...by natural selection our mind has adapted
  itself to the conditions of the external world.
  It has adopted the geometry most advantageous to
  the species or, in other words, the most
  convenient. Geometry is not true, it is
  advantageous.
• Science and Method.

8
WWII

• WWII generation invented the theories and methods
  and the tools needed to implement them.
  Examples

• Computers
• Game theory
• Decision theory
• Social judgment theory
• System dynamics
• Operations research
• Signal detection theory

9
Baby boomers

• A tiny fraction of baby boomers learned the
  techniques in graduate school and began
  developing and refining primitive tools and
  gaining experience in their implementation.
  Examples

• MAUT
• Policy PC
• Stella, etc.
• Mexico City Airport (successful application of
  decision theory)
• Denver Handgun Ammunition (successful application
  of social judgment theory)
• CAWCS (successful application of MAUT)

10
Children of baby boomers

• A larger fraction of children of baby boomers
  learn about the techniques in high school and
  college and have ready access to primitive tools.
  They will refine the tools and gain more
  experience in implementation.

11
Grandchildren of baby boomers

• An even larger fraction of the grandchildren of
  baby boomers will be exposed to the techniques in
  grade school and will learn about them in high
  school and college. This generation will
  distribute the techniques and train their
  students to use them.

12
Pre WWII Enlightenment
13
WWII Invention
14
Baby boomers Optimism
15
Children of baby boomers Realism
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Grandchildren of baby boomers Maturity
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Optimism or pessimism?

• Realism?