It

1
Its the ecology stupid!

• Paul Reiter, Pasteur Institute
• and partners in the EDEN project

and the behavior
2
Welcome to Yakutsk, NE Siberia!
-710F
Courtesy Lena and Larry Huldén
3
Annual cases of malaria
Year Cases Year Cases
1935 16328 1950 3825
1940 5822 1951 1355
1941 5101 1952 976
1942 3766 1953 1141
1943 3475 1954 679
1944 2332 1955 1749
1945 1930 1956 1263
1946 2664 1957 734
1947 3361 1958 463
1948 2084 1959 88
Courtesy Lena and Larry Huldén
4
Vector-borne diseases levels of complexity
Direct transmission

• Human human
• Human vector human

5
Ecology and behaviour the big picture!
Vector ecology Vector behavior Host ecology Host
behavior Human ecology Human behavior
6
The EDEN Project
Emerging Diseases in a Changing European
eNvironment
Courtesy Guy Hendrickx (Avia-GIS) Renaud
Lancelot (CIRAD)
7
EU call for proposals

• European ecosystems linked to global change
• Impact on distribution and transmission of
  pathogens
• Models to predict dispersal and transmission
• Surveillance and modeling for early warning

8
EDEN integrated project
WP8 Training, Dissemination, Management
Coordination
For each indicator disease, field studies are
conducted to understand patterns and
processes WP1 Landscapes/biotopes WP2
Vectors WP3 Public health WP4 Animal
hosts/reservoirs WP5 Integrated data analysis
Courtesy Guy Hendrickx (Avia-GIS) Renaud
Lancelot (CIRAD)
9
White-footed mouse
10
Tick-borne Encephalitis
Courtesy Sarah Randolph
11
The distribution of Tick-Borne Encephalitis
Courtesy Sarah Randolph
12
From biology of parasites to epidemiology - a
delicate balance
Climate
Courtesy Sarah Randolph
13
Network of independent but synergistic biological
and non-biological factors Examples of data
from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and
Czech Republic.
Courtesy Sarah Randolph
Sumilo D, Randolph SE, et al PLoS ONE (2007) e500
Šumilo D, Randolph SE et al (2008) Revs Med Virol
14
Correlations between socio-economic factors and
increases in TBE incidence across CEE countries

• Shift from correlations in time to correlations
  in space
• - substantiates causality

Courtesy Sarah Randolph
Data from Heyns 2005, Ann Rev Sociol 31, 163-97
Šumilo D, Randolph SE et al (2008) Revs Med Virol
15
A new source of income
16
Climate change and emerging tick-borne infections

• Evidence for the impact of the following on
  tick-borne diseases

• Human-induced abiotic environmental changes

• Human-induced biotic environmental changes

• Changes in human behaviour induced by
  socio-economic factors

• By chance, acted synergistically on living
  conditions of all partners

• Virus, ticks, wildlife, humans

• Enhanced - zoonotic risk of infection
• - exposure of humans to risk

• Unforeseen consequences of end of Soviet
  rule

end of the cold war
political global warming
Human activities, driven by a wide variety of
factors, are crucially important in the emergence
of ZOONotic diseases
17
Landscape and disease transmission
Hantavirus and Lyme borreliosis infections in
Belgium

• remote forest areas
• low incomes
• Outdoor work

• wealthy areas
• forested periurban zones
• Recreational activities

Linard, Tersago et al., 2007
Data from Institute of Public Health, Belgium
18
EDEN publications
19
But is our work worth a hill of beans?

Percent
Specialists
Activists
20
A network of reviewsof reviews
21
IPCC chapters on Human Health
AR2 AR3 AR4
C Principal lead author
A Principal lead author Lead author
I Contributor Lead author Lead author
B Principal lead author Lead author
H Contributing author
E Contributor Lead author
G Convening lead author Review editor
D Contributor Review editor Lead author
22
Mythology vs. science
(the) totalitarian ambition of the savage mind
is quite different from the procedures of
scientific thinking It is a way of thinking
which must imply that if you don't understand
everything, you don't explain anything.
Claude Lévi-Strauss (1979). Myth and Meaning
Cracking the code of culture