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Title: Climate Change:


1
Climate Change its a matter of degrees...
Energy and Climate Change Symposium American
Academy of Arts and Sciences Stated
Meeting, Rosina Bierbaum, Dean and Professor,
University of Michigan October 7, 2007
2
Take Home Messages
  • Degrees of warming matter
  • Mitigation makes a difference
  • Committed to further climate changes
  • Achieving the Millennium Development Goals
    becomes harder
  • Its not just the averages that matter
  • Regional vulnerabilities
  • Multiple stresses
  • Extremes
  • Portfolio Approach
  • Adaptation and Mitigation---integrate and need
    MORE OF BOTH

3
Projected Impacts of Climate Change
IPCC, 2007
4
(No Transcript)
5
A world vulnerable to Climate Change
  • ? Most impacts are will be negative, especially
    for the poorest, most vulnerable nations.
    Achieving the MDGs will be much more difficult.
  • ? Water resources, coastal infrastructure,
    health, agriculture, and ecosystems will be
    challenged in virtually every region of the
    globe.
  • ? International, regional, and national
    institutions are ill-prepared to manage climate
    change impacts. Enhanced preparedness/response
    strategies are a global priority.
  • ? Both Mitigation and Adaptation are needed.
  • A mitigation only strategy wont work because
    its already too late to avoid substantial
    climate change.
  • An adaptation only strategy wont work because
    most adaptation measures become more costly and
    less effective as the magnitude of the changes to
    which one is trying to adapt gets larger.

6
The Millennium Development Goals
  1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve,
    between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
    living on less than 1/day and the proportion of
    people suffering from hunger.
  2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
  3. Promote Gender Equality Empower Women
  4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between
    1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate.
  5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between
    1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate
  6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By
    2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread
    of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and
    other major diseases.
  7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
  8. Develop a global partnership for Development

7
The Millennium Development Goals
  1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve,
    between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
    living on less than 1/day and the proportion of
    people suffering from hunger.
  2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
  3. Promote Gender Equality Empower Women
  4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between
    1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate.
  5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between
    1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate
  6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By
    2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread
    of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and
    other major diseases.
  7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
  8. Develop a global partnership for Development

8
The Millennium Development Goals
  1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve,
    between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
    living on less than 1/day and the proportion of
    people suffering from hunger.
  2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
  3. Promote Gender Equality Empower Women
  4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between
    1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate.
  5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between
    1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate
  6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By
    2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread
    of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and
    other major diseases.
  7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
  8. Develop a global partnership for Development

9
1 hour ozone (ppb)
10
Projected changes in extremes
11
Adaptation Research is LaggingNRC Report on
CCSP (9/12/07)
  • Understanding and predicting physical climate
    change is progressing well
  • Declining observing capability
  • Inadequate human dimensions funding
  • 30 million lack of collaboration
  • Inadequate progress
  • in assessing impacts on human well being and
    vulnerabilities
  • in providing knowledge to support decision making
    and risk analyses
  • in communicating results and engaging
    stakeholders in a two-way dialogue

Evaluating Progress of the US CCSP Program
Methods Preliminary Results
12
Adaptation options include management,
technology, institutions, monitoring, RD
  • Prioritize lands to preserve
  • Design of migration corridors
  • Infrastructure to withstand new extremes
  • Linking of reservoirs to enhance supply
  • Seed banks, mass propagation techniques
  • Emergency response plans
  • Early warning alert systems / surveillance
  • Incentives / Disincentives / insurance

13
Assessments should be policy-relevant,
provide near-term guidance. AND identify missing
information most important to future decisions.
14
Meanwhile, climate-change science is actually
being cut! Budget authority in
constant FY2007
Kei Kozumi, AAAS, 2-07
15
But, there is hope..
Among the Presidents FY 09 Priorities.
So as to better inform policy, agencies should
continue to make investments to improve our
ability to observe, model, assess, and adapt to
impacts of climate change, particularly on a
regional scale, and to assure the availability of
critical long-term climate data.
16
US federal investment in energy-technology
research, development, and demonstration
US DOE energy RDD spending, FY1978-2008
Courtesy Kelly Gallagher, Kennedy School of
Govt, 2-13-07
17
U.S. emissions trajectories to 2050
ASES, January 2007
18
There are intersections between mitigation and
adaptation
and water is a linchpin.
Electric Power Research Institute, 2007
19
Wise integrated mitigation-adaptation strategies
needed!
  • Sustainable land and water use policies are vital
    for agriculture, forestry, energy production and
    biodiversity preservation
  • Advanced building designs can maximize energy
    efficiency improve indoor air quality
  • Renewable energy sources can be a new income
    source (biomass/wind)
  • infrastructure can be constructed to withstand
    increasing floods and storm surges and with more
    efficient resource use

20
Conclusions
  • Past is not prologue
  • Infrastructure, energy and natural resource
    management and planning based on the last 100
    years of climate will be wrong
  • Adaptive Management will be needed
  • In all sectors and regions to cope with changing
    averages, extremes, and composite stresses
  • Investment is not commensurate with the urgency
    of the problem
  • Need integrative science assessments and serious
    RDD in mitigation and adaptation

21
Some key references
  • Confronting Climate Change Avoiding the
    Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable, United
    Nations Foundation, February 2007
    http//www.unfoundation.org/SEG/
  • Climate Change 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on
    Climate Change,2000 http//www.ipcc.ch/
  • Climate Change Impacts on the United States The
    Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and
    Change http//www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nation
    alassessment/overview.htm
  • Preparing for an Uncertain Climate, OTA, 1993,
    Vols. 12 http//www.gcrio.org/library/1993/otarep
    ort/index.htm

22
The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet
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