Title: Updates%20on%20the%20Chinese%20Energy%20Sector%20and%20the%20China%20LEAP%20Model:%20Inputs%20to%20and%20Results%20of%20National%20and%20Regional%20Alternative%20Paths%20for%20China
1Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and the
China LEAP Model Inputs to and Results of
National and Regional Alternative Paths for China
- Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang
- EETC, Tsinghua University, China
- 3rd Asia Energy Security Workshop
- 13-16 May 2005, Beijing, China
2Part A Background Information of Energy
Situation in China
3Where Does Chinas Energy Go?
- Basic facts in 2004
- Primary energy production 1.846 billion tce
- Total energy consumption 1.97 billion tce
- Energy production and consumption both increased
15 than the year before - Coal consumption 1.87 billion ton, 14.4 higher
- Crude oil consumption 2900 million ton, 16.8
higher - More questions and worries internal, regional and
worldwide - Energy security
- International oil price
- Emission from coal consumption
4Poor on Domestic Conventional Energy Resources
Source Coal Economic Research 2005 Special
Issue. Page 10
Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003)
China USA Japan World Average
Coal (ton) 89 859 6 79
Oil (ton) 2.48 14.43 0.06 24.85
NG (m3) 1408 17973 312 27875
5Low Consumption and Income Per Capita Source
Coal Economic Research 2005 Special Issue. Page 10
6Primary Energy Consumption Source China Energy
Statistical Yearbook 2003
Coal
Oil
7Primary Energy Mix()Source China Energy
Research Society, Energy Policy Research, 2003.6
China China China China World
Year 1980 1990 2000 2003 2003
Coal 72.2 76.2 66.1 67.1 26.5
Oil 20.7 16.6 24.6 22.7 37.3
NG 3.1 2.1 2.5 2.8 23.9
Elec. 4.0 5.1 6.8 7.4 12.3
8 Less Coal for Final UsersSource China Energy
Statistical Yearbook 2003
9Heavily Relays on Small-scale Coal Mines Source
China Energy Research Society, Energy Policy
Research, 2003.6
10Death on Coal Mining Accidents (person/Mt)Source
China Energy Research Society, Energy Policy
Research, 2003.6 Coal Economic Research 2005
Special Issue. Page 24 Calculated
Total Death (person) China China China China USA Russia
Total Death (person) Average State-owned Local TVE
1980 5066 8.17 7.11 10.50 9.03
1990 7300 6.76 4.53 10.19 16.88
2000 5800 5.80 0.97 3.46 10.99 0.039
2001 5951 5.13 1.88 4.23 15.44 0.041 0.490
2002 6997 5.07 1.25 3.83 12.12 0.027 0.335
2003 6951 4.17 1.08 3.13 9.62 0.031
11 Chinas Petroleum Supply Course
12Higher and Higher Dependency on Import
OilSource China Energy Research Society, Energy
Policy Research, 2003.6
Prod.
13Oil Import Dependency
142nd Power Generation Industry in the
WorldSource Coal Economic Research 2005 Special
Issue. Page 37
Year Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Generation/TWh Generation/TWh Generation/TWh Generation/TWh
Year Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear
1980 65.9 45.6 20.3 -- 301 243 58 --
1985 87.0 60.6 26.4 -- 411 318 92 --
1990 137.89 101.84 36.05 -- 621.32 494.97 126.35 --
1995 217.22 162.94 52.18 2.10 1006.95 807.34 186.77 12.83
2000 319.32 237.54 79.25 2.10 1386.5 1107.9 243.1 16.7
2001 338.49 253.01 83.01 2.10 1483.86 1204.48 261.11 17.47
2002 356.57 265.54 86.07 4.47 1654.16 1352.20 274.57 26.49
2003 391.41 289.77 94.90 6.19 1905.21 1578.97 281.33 43.85
15ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN CHINASource Handbook of
Energy Economic Statistics in Japan, 2004Coal
Economic Research 2005 Special Issue. Page 10
16has gone a long way Source Energy Efficiency
Programmes in Developing and Transitional APEC
Economies, ISBN 4-931482-25-2 2003
17but much remains Source Energy Efficiency
Programmes in Developing and Transitional APEC
Economies, ISBN 4-931482-25-2 2003
World Average 0.264
18China is still Looking for the Way of Development
19Industry is the Main Energy Consumer Source
China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2003
Resident Service Trans. Industry Agri.
20Three Shortages and One Hot Topic
- Three shortages electricity, coal oil
- Quick switch from surplus to shortage
- Broad range 24 out of 31 provinces
- Shortage in coal
- One hot topic energy development strategy
- Sustainable development strategy for oil and gas
- Energy science and technology development
planning - Outline of medium-long term energy development
planning (2004-2020) (draft)
21Outline of Medium-Long Term Energy Development
Planning (2004-2020) (Draft)Source Shanghai
Security Nwespaper July 1st 2004
http//finance.sina.com.cn
- Top priority given to energy conservation and
efficiency improvement - To make adjustments on energy profile coal
dominant, power oriented, as well as oil, natural
gas and new energy - Better distribution of energy facilities east
and west, urban and rural, transportation
capacity - Full utilization of domestic and overseas
resources and markets self sufficient and
international cooperation
22Outline of Medium-Long Term Energy Development
Planning (2004-2020) (Draft)
- Rely on technology innovations
- Make great efforts on minimizing environmental
impacts by energy production and consumption - Full attention given to energy security
diversification, stockpiles - Improvement of energy policy-making
23Main Areas of Energy Technology Development
Source Tsinghua, China Energy Outlook 2004
- Energy efficiency technologies
- Higher efficient and cleaner utilization of coal
- Technical system to support oil security
- Advanced nuclear power technologies
- Large-scale hydropower generation technologies
- Increasing reliability of power grids
- Renewable energy
- Hydrogen and fuel cell
24China Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation
Plan
- Taking energy conservation as an important
component of changing the economic growth pattern
(saving energy through changing the economic
growth pattern) - Integrating energy conservation with economic
structural adjustment, technology innovation and
management enhancement - Integrating the function of market mechanism with
government macro-regulating - Integrating lawful management and policy
incentives - Three key sectors (industry, transportation,
building) - Public participation (governmental agencies role)
25Measures for Energy Security
- Oil conservation
- Domestic resource exploration
- Overseas resource development
- Shipping security
- Fuel substitution (coal liquefaction, Ethanol,
bio-diesel) - Stockpile
26Actions in 2005
- Electricity pricing
- Law for Promoting the Development and Application
of Renewable Energies - Set up State Energy Committee/Office
- Oil industry reform
27Electricity Pricing Associated with Coal Price
- Market coal vs planning electricity
- 440 power plants among 1140 plants lost 7.8
billion yuan RMB in 2004 because of higher coal
price. - First quarter of 2005, price of coal for power
plants raised 10-15 - New pricing mechanism effected in May 2005. If
coal price changes 5 or above within more than 6
months, power price will change. - Power for industrial consumers will increase
0.0213 yuan/kWh in May.
28Law for Promoting the Development and Application
of Renewable Energies
- Finished legal procedure on Feb. 28th, 2005 and
will effect on Jan. 1st, 2006. - Encourages all entities to participate in and
protects legal rights and interests of the
developers and users. - Sets middle and long-term target of the total
volume at the national level. - Encourages and supports various types of
grid-connected renewable power generation. - Government budget establishes renewable energy
development fund to support research, standard
establishment, pilot project, project
construction, resource surveys and assessments,
and localized production of the equipment.
29Top Authority of Energy
- No integrated authority to deal with energy
issues since 1992. - Set up Energy Bureau under NDRC in April 2004
with 30 staff. - China will set up the State Energy
Committee/Office. Mr. Ma Kai, the Minister of
NDRC will be the head of the office.
30Monopoly in Petroleum Industry will be Broken
- Dec. 11st 2004 is the first day that China opens
its oil product retail market based on the
commitments for joining the WTO. - Dec. 11st 2004, Petroleum Chamber of Commerce
under ACFIC (All-China Federation of Industry
Commerce) was set up. More than 100
non-state-owned enterprises joint it.
31PART B China LEAP Model Inputs to and Results
of National and Regional Alternative Paths for
China
Aling ZHANG, Yanjia WANG, Alun GU Tsinghua
University May 13-16 Beijing
32Outline
- Background of this study
- Basic assumptions
- Business as usual Path
- National Alternative Path Regional Alternative
Path - Cost comparison and emission comparison
33Background of this study
- Funded by Nautilus Institute, LEAP modeling and
dataset in China started from 2001 as a part of
the larger EAEF/AES regional project - Prof. Yanjia Wang, Prof. Aling Zhang, Dr. David
Von Hippel and Ms Lea Prince have been of great
help to the completion of the dataset and the
paper summary
34Background of this study
- Approach Use LEAP to study the energy futures
scenarios for China - Task Describe the possible results of energy
consumption, GHG emission and costs comparison
(demand cost, transformation cost or import cost
and so on) -
35Basic assumptions
- There are three Scenarios in this LEAP model
BAU, NAP and RAP - The data are from China statistical yearbooks of
various years, energy reports and energy articles - Some OM cost data is estimated according to the
current average level in China
36Business as usual Path
37Business as usual Path Assumptions
- There is no dramatic breakthrough has taken place
in the regional political relations and economic
cooperation - Natural gas is widely used for electricity
generation - The urbanization process continues to speed up,
bringing high pressure in terms of both energy
consumption and environmental problems in most
cities
38- Energy demand growth rate 3/yr
- The renewable energy will not strongly promoted
by the reason of national energy policy
39Business as usual Path
Comparison of the Energy Demand Structure (by
sector)
- transportation sector is projected to be the
fastest growing sector, with its share of total
national energy use increasing from 10 in 2000
to 26 in 2030 - industry sector share of energy use decreases,
it remains the largest energy consumption sector,
accounting for 44 of total energy consumption in
2030
40National Alternative Path Assumptions
- This path describes the development of nuclear
power and renewable energy in China - the program of renewable energy utilization as a
part of the National Alternative Path for China - Nuclear power is widely used in electricity
generation - Coal will still play an important role in the all
demand sectors -
41- Energy demand 3/yr
- The renewable energy will account for a little
share by the reason of national energy policy
42Output Electricity Generation of NAP
- The nuclear power generation will account for
about 11 of the total electricity generation in
2030 - More natural gas will be applied in the power
generation
43National Alternative PathGHG emissions
- GHG emissions are mainly dominated by the
Industry and transport sectors - Due to the usage of natural gas and nuclear in
electricity generation in China, GHG emissions
from the electricity sector are projected to
decrease - As a result of the rapid development of the
transport sector, emissions from the transport
sector are projected to increase to account for
21 of total GHG emissions by 2030
44Regional Alternative Path Assumptions
- Under the Regional Alternative Path (RAP) for
China, the fast-growing economy in the middle and
western parts of China leads to increasing demand
for electricity and for cleaner energy (including
the current Northeast revival) - Allowing the expansion of international power
networks and construction of international
pipelines, regional cooperation brings new
opportunities to all countries concerned - An energy charter is drafted to promote further
cooperation in the region, including the free
transfer of new energy technologies and a common
set of benchmarks concerning energy efficiency to
guide design of energy-using products in the
region - More natural gas is used in Chinas economy as a
whole, relative to the BAU and NAP cases
45Net final fuel demand of RAP
- The shares of electricity and natural gas in
energy demand are projected to increase through
2030 - The coal share of total energy demand is
projected to decrease by 2030
46Output Electricity Generation of RAP
- For the regional cooperation, natural gas will
play very important roles in the electricity
generation in 2030
47- In the BAU and NAP scenarios, the energy demand
fuel mix is almost the same, but for the RAP
scenario, the natural gas share of total energy
demand is projected to increase quickly - Coal energy demand is projected to decrease in
all three scenarios, but the decrease in the
level of coal demand differs between the
scenarios - The increase in demand for oil in the future in
China is expected to be unchanged, the driving
force behind the increase being the rapid growth
in Chinas transport sector
48- Cost comparison
- This section is not completed, but the trend is
not unchanged - The cost of RAP scenario is projected to be much
larger than the NAP scenario for the import cost.
49Emission comparison
- The emissions of RAP scenario is projected to be
less than the NAP scenario
50Conclusions
- From 2001 to 2030, all three scenarios describe
future clean energy paths - The era of cheap oil had already gone, rapidly
growing energy demand will generate a need for
increased energy supplies and energy security for
China (natural gas and nuclear energy) - Regional cooperation will promote increased
energy output and cut down the total GHG
emissions
51Next Step
- Continuous modification
- LEAP TED substantial
- Hydrogen economy
- CDM Project and energy structure in China
- District heating added in the China LEAP model
52Thank you !
gal_at_tsinghua.edu.cn 010-6279 4098(O)