Updates%20on%20the%20Chinese%20Energy%20Sector%20and%20the%20China%20LEAP%20Model:%20Inputs%20to%20and%20Results%20of%20National%20and%20Regional%20Alternative%20Paths%20for%20China - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Updates%20on%20the%20Chinese%20Energy%20Sector%20and%20the%20China%20LEAP%20Model:%20Inputs%20to%20and%20Results%20of%20National%20and%20Regional%20Alternative%20Paths%20for%20China

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Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and the China LEAP Model: Inputs to and Results of National and Regional Alternative Paths for China Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Updates%20on%20the%20Chinese%20Energy%20Sector%20and%20the%20China%20LEAP%20Model:%20Inputs%20to%20and%20Results%20of%20National%20and%20Regional%20Alternative%20Paths%20for%20China


1
Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and the
China LEAP Model Inputs to and Results of
National and Regional Alternative Paths for China
  • Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang
  • EETC, Tsinghua University, China
  • 3rd Asia Energy Security Workshop
  • 13-16 May 2005, Beijing, China

2
Part A Background Information of Energy
Situation in China
  • Yanjia Wang

3
Where Does Chinas Energy Go?
  • Basic facts in 2004
  • Primary energy production 1.846 billion tce
  • Total energy consumption 1.97 billion tce
  • Energy production and consumption both increased
    15 than the year before
  • Coal consumption 1.87 billion ton, 14.4 higher
  • Crude oil consumption 2900 million ton, 16.8
    higher
  • More questions and worries internal, regional and
    worldwide
  • Energy security
  • International oil price
  • Emission from coal consumption

4
Poor on Domestic Conventional Energy Resources
Source Coal Economic Research 2005 Special
Issue. Page 10
Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003) Remaining recoverable reserves per capita (2003)
China USA Japan World Average
Coal (ton) 89 859 6 79
Oil (ton) 2.48 14.43 0.06 24.85
NG (m3) 1408 17973 312 27875
5
Low Consumption and Income Per Capita Source
Coal Economic Research 2005 Special Issue. Page 10
6
Primary Energy Consumption Source China Energy
Statistical Yearbook 2003
Coal
Oil
7
Primary Energy Mix()Source China Energy
Research Society, Energy Policy Research, 2003.6
China China China China World
Year 1980 1990 2000 2003 2003
Coal 72.2 76.2 66.1 67.1 26.5
Oil 20.7 16.6 24.6 22.7 37.3
NG 3.1 2.1 2.5 2.8 23.9
Elec. 4.0 5.1 6.8 7.4 12.3
8
Less Coal for Final UsersSource China Energy
Statistical Yearbook 2003
9
Heavily Relays on Small-scale Coal Mines Source
China Energy Research Society, Energy Policy
Research, 2003.6
10
Death on Coal Mining Accidents (person/Mt)Source
China Energy Research Society, Energy Policy
Research, 2003.6 Coal Economic Research 2005
Special Issue. Page 24 Calculated
Total Death (person) China China China China USA Russia
Total Death (person) Average State-owned Local TVE
1980 5066 8.17 7.11 10.50 9.03
1990 7300 6.76 4.53 10.19 16.88
2000 5800 5.80 0.97 3.46 10.99 0.039
2001 5951 5.13 1.88 4.23 15.44 0.041 0.490
2002 6997 5.07 1.25 3.83 12.12 0.027 0.335
2003 6951 4.17 1.08 3.13 9.62 0.031
11
Chinas Petroleum Supply Course
12
Higher and Higher Dependency on Import
OilSource China Energy Research Society, Energy
Policy Research, 2003.6
Prod.
13
Oil Import Dependency
14
2nd Power Generation Industry in the
WorldSource Coal Economic Research 2005 Special
Issue. Page 37
Year Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Capacity/GW Generation/TWh Generation/TWh Generation/TWh Generation/TWh
Year Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear
1980 65.9 45.6 20.3 -- 301 243 58 --
1985 87.0 60.6 26.4 -- 411 318 92 --
1990 137.89 101.84 36.05 -- 621.32 494.97 126.35 --
1995 217.22 162.94 52.18 2.10 1006.95 807.34 186.77 12.83
2000 319.32 237.54 79.25 2.10 1386.5 1107.9 243.1 16.7
2001 338.49 253.01 83.01 2.10 1483.86 1204.48 261.11 17.47
2002 356.57 265.54 86.07 4.47 1654.16 1352.20 274.57 26.49
2003 391.41 289.77 94.90 6.19 1905.21 1578.97 281.33 43.85
15
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN CHINASource Handbook of
Energy Economic Statistics in Japan, 2004Coal
Economic Research 2005 Special Issue. Page 10
16
has gone a long way Source Energy Efficiency
Programmes in Developing and Transitional APEC
Economies, ISBN 4-931482-25-2 2003
17
but much remains Source Energy Efficiency
Programmes in Developing and Transitional APEC
Economies, ISBN 4-931482-25-2 2003
World Average 0.264
18
China is still Looking for the Way of Development
19
Industry is the Main Energy Consumer Source
China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2003
Resident Service Trans. Industry Agri.
20
Three Shortages and One Hot Topic
  • Three shortages electricity, coal oil
  • Quick switch from surplus to shortage
  • Broad range 24 out of 31 provinces
  • Shortage in coal
  • One hot topic energy development strategy
  • Sustainable development strategy for oil and gas
  • Energy science and technology development
    planning
  • Outline of medium-long term energy development
    planning (2004-2020) (draft)

21
Outline of Medium-Long Term Energy Development
Planning (2004-2020) (Draft)Source Shanghai
Security Nwespaper July 1st 2004
http//finance.sina.com.cn
  1. Top priority given to energy conservation and
    efficiency improvement
  2. To make adjustments on energy profile coal
    dominant, power oriented, as well as oil, natural
    gas and new energy
  3. Better distribution of energy facilities east
    and west, urban and rural, transportation
    capacity
  4. Full utilization of domestic and overseas
    resources and markets self sufficient and
    international cooperation

22
Outline of Medium-Long Term Energy Development
Planning (2004-2020) (Draft)
  1. Rely on technology innovations
  2. Make great efforts on minimizing environmental
    impacts by energy production and consumption
  3. Full attention given to energy security
    diversification, stockpiles
  4. Improvement of energy policy-making

23
Main Areas of Energy Technology Development
Source Tsinghua, China Energy Outlook 2004
  • Energy efficiency technologies
  • Higher efficient and cleaner utilization of coal
  • Technical system to support oil security
  • Advanced nuclear power technologies
  • Large-scale hydropower generation technologies
  • Increasing reliability of power grids
  • Renewable energy
  • Hydrogen and fuel cell

24
China Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation
Plan
  1. Taking energy conservation as an important
    component of changing the economic growth pattern
    (saving energy through changing the economic
    growth pattern)
  2. Integrating energy conservation with economic
    structural adjustment, technology innovation and
    management enhancement
  3. Integrating the function of market mechanism with
    government macro-regulating
  4. Integrating lawful management and policy
    incentives
  5. Three key sectors (industry, transportation,
    building)
  6. Public participation (governmental agencies role)

25
Measures for Energy Security
  • Oil conservation
  • Domestic resource exploration
  • Overseas resource development
  • Shipping security
  • Fuel substitution (coal liquefaction, Ethanol,
    bio-diesel)
  • Stockpile

26
Actions in 2005
  • Electricity pricing
  • Law for Promoting the Development and Application
    of Renewable Energies
  • Set up State Energy Committee/Office
  • Oil industry reform

27
Electricity Pricing Associated with Coal Price
  • Market coal vs planning electricity
  • 440 power plants among 1140 plants lost 7.8
    billion yuan RMB in 2004 because of higher coal
    price.
  • First quarter of 2005, price of coal for power
    plants raised 10-15
  • New pricing mechanism effected in May 2005. If
    coal price changes 5 or above within more than 6
    months, power price will change.
  • Power for industrial consumers will increase
    0.0213 yuan/kWh in May.

28
Law for Promoting the Development and Application
of Renewable Energies
  • Finished legal procedure on Feb. 28th, 2005 and
    will effect on Jan. 1st, 2006.
  • Encourages all entities to participate in and
    protects legal rights and interests of the
    developers and users.
  • Sets middle and long-term target of the total
    volume at the national level.
  • Encourages and supports various types of
    grid-connected renewable power generation.
  • Government budget establishes renewable energy
    development fund to support research, standard
    establishment, pilot project, project
    construction, resource surveys and assessments,
    and localized production of the equipment.

29
Top Authority of Energy
  • No integrated authority to deal with energy
    issues since 1992.
  • Set up Energy Bureau under NDRC in April 2004
    with 30 staff.
  • China will set up the State Energy
    Committee/Office. Mr. Ma Kai, the Minister of
    NDRC will be the head of the office.

30
Monopoly in Petroleum Industry will be Broken
  • Dec. 11st 2004 is the first day that China opens
    its oil product retail market based on the
    commitments for joining the WTO.
  • Dec. 11st 2004, Petroleum Chamber of Commerce
    under ACFIC (All-China Federation of Industry
    Commerce) was set up. More than 100
    non-state-owned enterprises joint it.

31
PART B China LEAP Model Inputs to and Results
of National and Regional Alternative Paths for
China
Aling ZHANG, Yanjia WANG, Alun GU Tsinghua
University May 13-16 Beijing
32
Outline
  • Background of this study
  • Basic assumptions
  • Business as usual Path
  • National Alternative Path Regional Alternative
    Path
  • Cost comparison and emission comparison

33
Background of this study
  • Funded by Nautilus Institute, LEAP modeling and
    dataset in China started from 2001 as a part of
    the larger EAEF/AES regional project
  • Prof. Yanjia Wang, Prof. Aling Zhang, Dr. David
    Von Hippel and Ms Lea Prince have been of great
    help to the completion of the dataset and the
    paper summary

34
Background of this study
  • Approach Use LEAP to study the energy futures
    scenarios for China
  • Task Describe the possible results of energy
    consumption, GHG emission and costs comparison
    (demand cost, transformation cost or import cost
    and so on)

35
Basic assumptions
  • There are three Scenarios in this LEAP model
    BAU, NAP and RAP
  • The data are from China statistical yearbooks of
    various years, energy reports and energy articles
  • Some OM cost data is estimated according to the
    current average level in China

36
Business as usual Path
37
Business as usual Path Assumptions
  • There is no dramatic breakthrough has taken place
    in the regional political relations and economic
    cooperation
  • Natural gas is widely used for electricity
    generation
  • The urbanization process continues to speed up,
    bringing high pressure in terms of both energy
    consumption and environmental problems in most
    cities

38
  • Energy demand growth rate 3/yr
  • The renewable energy will not strongly promoted
    by the reason of national energy policy

39
Business as usual Path
Comparison of the Energy Demand Structure (by
sector)
  • transportation sector is projected to be the
    fastest growing sector, with its share of total
    national energy use increasing from 10 in 2000
    to 26 in 2030
  • industry sector share of energy use decreases,
    it remains the largest energy consumption sector,
    accounting for 44 of total energy consumption in
    2030

40
National Alternative Path Assumptions
  • This path describes the development of nuclear
    power and renewable energy in China
  • the program of renewable energy utilization as a
    part of the National Alternative Path for China
  • Nuclear power is widely used in electricity
    generation
  • Coal will still play an important role in the all
    demand sectors

41
  • Energy demand 3/yr
  • The renewable energy will account for a little
    share by the reason of national energy policy

42
Output Electricity Generation of NAP
  • The nuclear power generation will account for
    about 11 of the total electricity generation in
    2030
  • More natural gas will be applied in the power
    generation

43
National Alternative PathGHG emissions
  • GHG emissions are mainly dominated by the
    Industry and transport sectors
  • Due to the usage of natural gas and nuclear in
    electricity generation in China, GHG emissions
    from the electricity sector are projected to
    decrease
  • As a result of the rapid development of the
    transport sector, emissions from the transport
    sector are projected to increase to account for
    21 of total GHG emissions by 2030

44
Regional Alternative Path Assumptions
  • Under the Regional Alternative Path (RAP) for
    China, the fast-growing economy in the middle and
    western parts of China leads to increasing demand
    for electricity and for cleaner energy (including
    the current Northeast revival)
  • Allowing the expansion of international power
    networks and construction of international
    pipelines, regional cooperation brings new
    opportunities to all countries concerned
  • An energy charter is drafted to promote further
    cooperation in the region, including the free
    transfer of new energy technologies and a common
    set of benchmarks concerning energy efficiency to
    guide design of energy-using products in the
    region
  • More natural gas is used in Chinas economy as a
    whole, relative to the BAU and NAP cases

45
Net final fuel demand of RAP
  • The shares of electricity and natural gas in
    energy demand are projected to increase through
    2030
  • The coal share of total energy demand is
    projected to decrease by 2030

46
Output Electricity Generation of RAP
  • For the regional cooperation, natural gas will
    play very important roles in the electricity
    generation in 2030

47
  • In the BAU and NAP scenarios, the energy demand
    fuel mix is almost the same, but for the RAP
    scenario, the natural gas share of total energy
    demand is projected to increase quickly
  • Coal energy demand is projected to decrease in
    all three scenarios, but the decrease in the
    level of coal demand differs between the
    scenarios
  • The increase in demand for oil in the future in
    China is expected to be unchanged, the driving
    force behind the increase being the rapid growth
    in Chinas transport sector

48
  • Cost comparison
  • This section is not completed, but the trend is
    not unchanged
  • The cost of RAP scenario is projected to be much
    larger than the NAP scenario for the import cost.

49
Emission comparison
  • The emissions of RAP scenario is projected to be
    less than the NAP scenario

50
Conclusions
  • From 2001 to 2030, all three scenarios describe
    future clean energy paths
  • The era of cheap oil had already gone, rapidly
    growing energy demand will generate a need for
    increased energy supplies and energy security for
    China (natural gas and nuclear energy)
  • Regional cooperation will promote increased
    energy output and cut down the total GHG
    emissions

51
Next Step
  • Continuous modification
  • LEAP TED substantial
  • Hydrogen economy
  • CDM Project and energy structure in China
  • District heating added in the China LEAP model

52
Thank you !
gal_at_tsinghua.edu.cn 010-6279 4098(O)
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