Space Transportation BSR Template

1
Aviation Safety Challenges and Opportunities for
COSCAP Regional Safety Teams
A Manufacturers Perspective
Hank Reed Aviation Safety The Boeing Company
Gerard Guyot Safety Consultant Airbus
2
Aviation Safety Some Perspective

• Worldwide
• An airplane is landing approximately every two
  seconds somewhere in the world
• Approximately 53,000 flights per day
• More than 3 million people fly each day
• In 2006, Over 1.2 billion people flew on over 20
  million flights
• In 2006, there was 7 fatal accidents

3
Airline Travel is Extraordinarily Safe
42,643
U.S. Transportation Fatalities 2003 Source
NTSB
Number of Fatalities
767
703
626
622
73
47
Commercial Airlines
General aviation
Recreational boating and other marine
Rail transportation
Highway
Other commercial aviation
Bicycles
5-Year (ending in 2003) average for commercial
Jets, U.S. operations only
09-15-04 PUB-015
4
And we are making progress!
Hull Loss Accident Rate Western-Built Worldwide
Commercial Jets (gt60,000 lbs) 1993 - 2005
2.00
5 year running average
Hull Loss Accident Rate (per million departures)
1.60
1.20
0.80
Industry/Government Collaborative Efforts
0.40
0.00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
5
We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Annual Hull loss accident rate Accidents per
million departures
10
5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1-19-05 FT-004Wc
6
We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety
50
32,495
20,042
Airplanes in service
45
40
35
2006
2021
30
25
20
Departures, Millions
15
10
Annual Hull loss accident rate Accidents per
million departures
5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1-19-05 FT-004Wc
7
We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety
50
32,495
20,042
Airplanes in service
45
40
35
2006
2021
Hull loss accidentsper year
30
Business as usual
25
20
15
Departures per year, Millions
10
Reductions possible with continued Industry
effort
Annual Hull loss accident rate Accidents per
million departures
5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1-19-05 FT-004Wc
8
Departures and Flight HoursWorldwide Operations
1987 through 2006
45
40.3
Flight hours Departures
40
35
Annual departures and flight hours (millions)
30
25
20.0
20
15
10
5
0
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Year

• 487.5 million cumulative departures since 1959
  (396.1 million on Boeing airplanes)
• 874.4 million cumulative flight hours since 1959
  (684.9 million on Boeing airplanes)
• 7 manufacturers 35 significant types (14
  Boeing) in service as of 12/31/2006

Western fleet
9
Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet is Growing, But
There are Limits to Growth
10
Because the Aviation System Is Complex,All Parts
of Industry Must Work Together
150,000 flight crew
200 languages
800 airlines
200 countries
1,350 major airports
More than 21,000 airplanes
240,000 maintenance personnel
11
Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Airplane
Safe Operation Safe Infrastructure Safe Air
Travel
Air Safety
Governments
Manufacturers

• Safe airplane design
• Safety-enhancing technologydevelopment
• Flight and maintenance operations,
  recommendations,documents, training, andsupport
• Maintenance planning
• Safety-related analysis
• Safety initiatives

Operators

• Operations policy andprocedures
• Airplane/pilot publications
• Approved maintenanceprogram
• Maintenance, policy, andprocedures
• Maintenance publications
• Safety program
• Training

12
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category
Fatal Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet
1997 Through 2006
1800
1643 (67)
ARC Abnormal Runway Contact CFIT Controlled
Flight into or Toward Terrain F-NI Fire/Smoke
(Non-Impact) FUEL Fuel Related LOC-G Loss of
Control Ground LOC-I Loss of Control In
flight MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision OTHR Othe
r RAMP Ground Handling RE Runway
Excursion RI-VAP Runway Incursion Vehicle,
Aircraft or Person SCF-NP System/Component
Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant) SCF-
PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction
(Powerplant) TURB Turbulence Encounter USOS Unders
hoot/Overshoot UNK Unknown or Undetermined WSTRW W
ind shear or Thunderstorm No accidents were
noted in the following categories AMAN Abrupt
Maneuver ADRM Aerodrome ATM Air Traffic
Management/ Communications, Navigation,
Surveillance CABIN Cabin Safety
Events EVAC Evacuation F-POST Fire/Smoke
(Post-Impact) GCOL Ground Collision ICE Icing LALT
Low Altitude Operations RI-A Runway Incursion
Animal SEC Security Related For a complete
description go to http//www.intlaviationstandar
ds.org/
1655 (0)
External fatalities Total 249 Onboard
fatalities Total 5,149
1600
1400
1200
Fatalities
1000
800
600
546 (0)
Onboard fatalities
External fatalities
400
262 (77)
156 (71)
200
126 (0)
124 (2)
120 (0)
110 (10)
110 (4)
109 (1)
107 (1)
55 (9)
23 (0)
2 (0)
1 (0)
0 (7)
0
LOC-I
CFIT
SCF-
RE
MAC
LOC-G
OTHR
UNK
RI-VAP
F-NI
USOS
WSTRW
ARC
FUEL
RAMP
SCF-
TURB
NP
PP
Number of fatal accidents (89 total)
20
5
8
2
2
3
3
2
19
1
6
2
2
1
5
7
1
Note Principal categories as assigned by CAST.
13
Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase
of Flight
Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet 1997 Through 2006
Percentage of accidents/fatalities
19
32
Taxi, load/ unload parked, tow
Initial
Final
Initial
Climb
Descent
approach
approach
Takeoff
climb
Landing
(flaps up)
Cruise
5
10
10
11
8
22
13
11
10
Fatal Accidents
6
15
Q
14
12
17
5
0
12
19
Onboard Fatalities
20
29
Initial approach fix
Final approach fix
Exposure (Percentage of flight time estimated
for a 1.5 hour flight)
12
11
3
1
1
1
14
57
lt1
Percentages do not sum to 100 due to numerical
rounding.
100
2000
Distribution of fatal accidents and onboard
fatalities
Fatal accidents
80
Onboard fatalities
1500
Fatalities
Onboard fatalities
Fatal accidents
60
967
1000
858
788
716
40
617
625
20
500
299
20
275
10
11
10
9
9
9
7
4
4
0
0
Taxi, load/ unload parked, tow
Takeoff
Initial
Climb
Cruise
Descent
Initial
Final
Landing
climb
approach
approach
21 2006 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, JULY 2007
14
Fatal Accidents - Asia (including China) Airline
Domicile - 1997 Through 2006
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category
1200
External fatalities Total 64 Onboard fatalities
Total 1,815
ARC Abnormal Runway Contact CFIT Controlled
Flight into or Toward Terrain F-NI Fire/Smoke
(Non-Impact) LOC-I Loss of Control In flight
RE Runway Excursion SCF-NP System/Component
Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant) SCF-
PP System/Component Failure or Malfunction
(Powerplant) No accidents were noted in the
following categories AMAN Abrupt
Maneuver ADRM Aerodrome ATM Air Traffic
Management/ Communications, Navigation,
Surveillance CABIN Cabin Safety
Events EVAC Evacuation F-POST Fire/Smoke
(Post-Impact) FUEL Fuel Related GCOL Ground
Collision ICE Icing LALT Low Altitude
Operations LOC-G Loss of Control
Ground MAC Midair/Near Midair Collision OTHR Other
RAMP Ground Handling RI-A Runway Incursion
Animal RI-VAP Runway Incursion Vehicle,
Aircraft or Person SEC Security
Related TURB Turbulence Encounter USOS Undershoot/
Overshoot UNK Unknown or Undetermined WSTRW Wind
shear or Thunderstorm For a complete description
go to http//www.intlaviationstandards.org/
980
1000
800
Onboard fatalities
Fatalities
External fatalities
600
462(61)
400
225
200
108
38(3)
1
1
0
CFIT
LOC-I
SCF-
RE
ARC
FIRE-NI
SCF-
NP
PP
Number of Fatal Accidents (22)
8
6
1
2
3
1
1
Note Principal categories as assigned by CAST.
15
Asia (Including China) Airline Domicile Fatal
Accidents by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category
CFIT LOC-I ARC RE SCF-NP F-NI SCF-PP
8 6 3 2 1 1 1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
ARC Abnormal Runway Contact CFIT Controlled
Flight into or Toward Terrain F-NI Fire/Smoke
(Non-Impact) LOC-I Loss of Control In flight
RE Runway Excursion SCF-NP System/Component
Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant) SCF-PP Sy
stem/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant)
No accidents were noted with the following
principal categories
RI-A Runway Incursion Animal RI-VAP Runway
Incursion Vehicle, Aircraft or
Person SEC Security Related TURB Turbulence
Encounter USOS Undershoot/Overshoot UNK Unknown
or Undetermined WSTRW Wind shear or Thunderstorm
AMAN Abrupt Maneuver ADRM Aerodrome ATM Air
Traffic Management/Communications, Navigation,
Surveillance CABIN Cabin Safety
Events EVAC Evacuation F-POST Fire/Smoke
(Post-Impact)
FUEL Fuel Related GCOL Ground Collision ICE Icing
LALT Low Altitude Operations LOC-G Loss of
Control Ground MAC Midair/Near Midair
Collision OTHR Other RAMP Ground Handling
For a complete description go to
http//www.intlaviationstandards.org/
Note Principal categories as assigned by CAST
16
Regional Perspective
Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by
airline domicile, 1997 through 2006
C.I.S. 4.9
Europe 0.7
ESSI
China 0.3
United States and Canada 0.5
CAST
Middle East 3.0
Asia 1.9
(Excluding China)
COSCAPS
Africa 12.0
PAAST
ASET
Latin America and Caribbean 2.4
Oceania 0.0
World 1.16
Accidents per million departures
17
Possible Reasons for Regional Accident Rate
Differences

• Infrastructure
• Air traffic control
• Navigation aids
• Airport equipment
• Weather services
• Airline operations
• Procedures
• Training
• Maintenance
• Dispatch
• Regulatory oversight
• Aviation law
• Regulation
• Personnel qualifications
• Resource constraints

18
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Industry
Government
AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA NACA Boeing GE RAA FSF IA
TA AAPA ATAC APFA

• DOD
• FAA
• Aircraft Certification
• Flight Standards
• System Safety
• Air Traffic Operations
• Research
• NASA
• ICAO
• EASA
• TCC
• NATCA
• NTSB

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Representing PW and RR
19
Worldwide Risk Analysis

• CAST plan developed to reduce fatality risk in
  U.S. Part 121 operations
• Question was raised by ICAO, PAAST and ESSI as to
  effectiveness of CAST plan worldwide
• Worldwide fatal accident data from 1987 2001
  analyzed using the CAST selection tool
• 331 accidents, which had sufficient data, were
  analyzed and scored

20
Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident
Location RegionAttributed to CFIT
(1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal Accidents)
100
90
80
70
Portion of Regional Fatality Risk
60
50
40
30
20
10
Latin America Caribbean
Asia
Europe
Africa
North America
21
Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident
Location Region Attributed to CFIT That Can be
Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted (2007
Implementation Values)
1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal and Hull Loss
Accidents
70
Risk Eliminated
60
Risk Remaining
50
Portion of Regional Fatality Risk (Percent)
40
30
20
10
0
Latin America Caribbean
Asia
Europe
World
Africa
North America
22
Conclusion

• Commercial air travel is extraordinarily safe,
  but improvements must continue to be made
• Not all areas or environments of the world are
  the same we need to use facts, data, and
  continuing insight to focus appropriate
  improvement efforts
• Improving safety in Asia is a shared
  responsibility of the manufacturers, the airline
  operators, and Government/State authorities, but
  it will take willingness and commitment to make
  it happen
• COSCAP regional safety teams and similar safety
  organizations can help to reduce accident risk
• Considerations should be given to implementing
  appropriate CAST Safety Enhancements to reduce
  fatality risk
• Airbus and Boeing are committed to help enhance
  aviation safety
• Rapid growth of commercial aviation in ASIA
  presents significant challenges

23
Next Steps

• Measure implementation levels and effectiveness
  of processes and procedures already put in place
  (e.g. adopted CAST Safety Enhancements)
• Integrate appropriate elements of the Global
  Aviation Safety Roadmap
• Identify gaps that exist and form plans to
  address
• Establish an information-sharing process to
  better gauge effectiveness of enhancements and
  identify emerging threats