WILDLAND FIRE SUPPRESSION NEEDED: INITIAL-ATTACK SUCCESS

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WILDLAND FIRE SUPPRESSION NEEDED INITIAL-ATTACK
SUCCESS
Presentation by Frank Greulich
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AIRTANKER RETARDANT DROPS
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MODEL OVERVIEW

• A spreadsheet based procedure for estimating
  airtanker initial-attack performance
• Exceptional precision and flexibility in
  specifying the spatial distribution of fire
  starts
• Exact flight-distance moments are computed and
  then applied in a user friendly model

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COST ESTIMATION EXAMPLE

• Use of Dobson's data (1965) to estimate the cost
  of the Canadair CL-215 for "one-strike
  initial-attack" as described by Hodgson and
  Newstead (1978) and McDonald (1979).

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DOBSONS DATA

• Cost 1.15 0.0891 Dist 0.0449 Dist2
• Where cost is given in cents per litre of
  airdropped water and Dist(ance) is the one-way
  flight distance from the airbase to the fire in
  100s of kilometers

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ONE-STRIKE INITIAL-ATTACK

• In the one-strike initial-attack model for
  skimmer aircraft it is assumed that it will drop
  water scooped from nearby sources until refueling
  becomes necessary thus ending initial-attack by
  that particular aircraft.

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MODEL ANALYSIS
A Microsoft Excel program is used to analyze the
airtanker initial-attack model
- Existing airbases can be evaluated
- The optimal airbase location can be identified
- Constrained optimization of airbase location
may be done
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INITIAL-ATTACK REGION - 1st EXAMPLE
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MODELLING RESULTS - 1st EXAMPLE
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GENERATING MODEL RESULTS
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Define the regions with bounding line segments
Assign fire occurrence probabilities to each
region
Locate the airbase if appropriate
Enter the constraint(s) if appropriate
Run the Excel program and examine results
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INITIAL-ATTACK REGION - 2nd EXAMPLE
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MODELLING RESULTS - 2nd EXAMPLE
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COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
- Generates exact moments of the flight-distance
distribution
- Models areas, lines and points as possible
fire-start locations
- Provides exceptionally fast computational
speeds including optimization
- Employs a commonly available and familiar
spreadsheet program
- Offers high internal consistency due to its
programming simplicity
- Is solidly based on analytical procedures
vetted through refereed-journal articles
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT - NEXT PHASE

• Front-end for GIS data importing
• Excel macros for data formatting
• Scaled-up proof-of-concept run

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REFERENCES CITED

• 1. Dobson, N.R. 1965. "The economics of the
  Canadair CL-215 in the waterbomber and passenger
  transport roles." Canadair Ltd., Montreal,
  Quebec. OER-452. 13 p.
• 2. Hodgson, M.J. and R.G. Newstead. 1978.
  Location-allocation models for one-strike
  initial attack of forest fires by airtankers.
  Can. J. For. Res. 8(2)145-154.
• 3. McDonald, C.S. 1979. Air tankers in
  Alberta. In Proceedings of the International
  Fire Management Workshop, Oct. 31 Nov. 1, 1978.
  D. Quintilio (ed.), Edmonton, Alberta. Northern
  Forest Research Centre Information Report
  NOR-X-215. 89 p.

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PICTURE CREDITS

• 1 John McColgan, Fairbanks, Alaska
• 2 http//www.photos.blm.gov
• 3 http//www.srh.noaa.gov
• 4 http//www.for.gov.bc.ca
• 5 http//www.or.blm.gov
• 6 http//envweb.env.gov.ab.ca