Computer and Society - 2 -

1
Computer and Society- 2 -

• Present and Future

2
Impact of Computer and AIPresent and Future

• Ray Kurzweil, The Impact On ...,
• from the book The Intelligent Machines, 1990.
• We look at what Kurzweil predicted in 1990, what
  have come to true, and what is coming to true,
  what is not yet, and what may not be forever.
• Our critiques and discussions.

3
Organization of Slides

• In the order of topics in the article
  employment, education, communication, warfare,
  medicine, the handicapped, music, politics,
  ourselves.
• For each topic
• Authors ideas, marked with Kurzweil,
• My critiques, marked with Critiques,
• Our discussions, marked with Discussions.

4
Topic 1. Employment and Economy

• p. 425-428

5
Employment - revisit
Kurzweil

• Few areas generate as much controversy as
  computers influence on employment.
• This issue is rarely approached dispassionately.
• The reality of lost jobs is easier to see than
  the possibility of new jobs created.

6
IEA Study
Kurzweil

• IEA study A comprehensive study of the trends
  of US economy at Institute for Economic Analysis
  (IEA)

7
What IEA Study Said (1)
Kurzweil

• Avg. earning power of workers was to increase
• A rapidly diminishing demand for clerical workers
  and unskilled workers
• A sharp increase in needs for professionals,
  computer specialists, and teachers.

8
What IEA Study Said (2)
Kurzweil

• The primary variable for continued growth was
  education and training.
• Power and wealth will increasingly consist of
  knowledge and skill.

9
IEA Study was Done in 1990
Critiques

• IEA study was a comprehensive study using a
  detailed computer model of economy.
• Quality of such study depends on model, factors
  considered, and data.
• I doubt some factors such as outsourcing, rise of
  Chinese economy were taken into account.

10
Factory Dwindling
Kurzweil

• Factories now employ substantially fewer workers
  than before, due to automation and
  computerization.
• Computerized manufacturing enables more
  customization of products.
• Before 1st industrial revolution, products were
  customized. With 1st industrial revolution,
  products became standardized. Now, products
  are coming back to customized.

11
Who is to do What
Kurzweil

• In 21st century, computers and humans are going
  to share the jobs in offices
• For computers
• Type our letters and reports, maintain our files
  and records, help organize our work.
• For human
• Communication, teaching, learning, selling ,
  strategic-decision making, and innovation.

12
Change of Concept of Documents
Kurzweil

• Documents on paper are to diminish, which will be
  replaced by multimedia documents.
• Documents include linkages to underlying
  knowledge and related information.
• Documents are organized in a way that each part
  can be directly accessed.

13
Are Multimedia Books Better?
Critiques

• It looks to be a dream of the author that the
  future documents are composed of text, pictures,
  voice, music, ... (p.428)
• Is a multimedia book inherently better than a
  book of plain text?
• Is a movie version of a novel, by it nature,
  better than the novel itself?

14
Learning as Part of Work
Kurzweil

• The primary skill required for future workers
  will be ability to adapt.
• A typical worker of this century will make a
  major or a career change once or twice each
  decade.
• Learning as part of work, as some enlightened
  companies have started doing.

15
Knowledge and Learning Capability
Discussion

• To adapt to the dynamic technology
• Higher institutions should provide not only
  knowledge but also tools of problem solving, and
  ways of thinking.
• Students in colleges should enrich their
  knowledge as well as their ability of learning.
• Meat or hunting rifle.
• Fish or fishnet.

16
Are we really afraid of losing jobs?
Discussion

• We share a dread - losing jobs, or unemployed.
• We love working, dont we?
• No one has dreamed of working in the Heaven.
• We never worry about unemployment in Heaven,
  since ...
• we never expect to work in Heaven!

17
Becoming Philosophers or Indulging in Making Love
Discussion

• The two quotes on page 425.
• If machines could be so improved and multiplied,
  then all of our corporeal necessities could be
  entirely gratified, without the intervention of
  human labor, there will be nothing to hinder all
  mankind from becoming philosophers and poets.
• - Timothy Walker, 1831
• Machinery will perform all work automata will
  direct all activities and the only tasks of the
  human race will be to make love, study and be
  happy.
• - The United State Review, 1853
• Would we be more likely, by our nature, becoming
  philosophers or indulging in making love if we
  were truly worry-free?

18
Topic 2. Education

• p. 429 - 432

19
Education in Computer Revolution
Kurzweil

• Education plays a pivotal role in shaping the
  future economy, as in Topic 1.
• But we have seen fewer changes in schools than in
  factories, in terms of content and process, in
  this computing age.

20
Eight Predictions in 1990 (1)
Kurzweil

• Computers are ubiquitous as pencils to students
• Students computers are portable laptops
• Very high resolution screen as readable as a
  book
• Of a variety of input devices

21
Eight Predictions in 1990 (2)
Kurzweil

• Of high quality two-way voice communication and
  natural language understanding
• Very easy to use
• Interactive intelligent and entertaining
  courseware
• Wireless connection to network.

22
Intelligent Courseware
Kurzweil

• It identifies the model that a student is using
  or the students weakness
• It develops strategy to upgrade the students
  model
• It provides entertaining and engaging experiences
  to carry out the remedial strategy.

23
Using Computer Network
Kurzweil

• Allow easy sharing of courseware, submissions by
  students of papers and exams, e-mails, ...
• Have access to libraries of the world, - books,
  magazines, databases
• Using intelligent software assistants to help
  find information. (search engines as we call
  them now)

24
Envision Teaching after 2050
Kurzweil

• A homework might be to participate in the
  Constitutional Convention of 1787 and debate the
  founding fathers.
• Another homework might be to negotiate the final
  language on behalf of the executive branch to get
  a better deal for the presidency on war powers.
• Your submission would be the actual debates that
  you participated in, and your teacher would grade
  them on watching them.

25
How Much Could Intelligent Machine Help
Education? (1)
Critiques

• Kurzweils vision of on-line, vivid, two-way
  multimedia teaching in future is interesting, and
  will help study.
• Could it help in all subjects?
• In the subjects it helps, how much it might help?

26
How Much Could Intelligent Machine Help
Education? (2)
Critiques

• Kursweils vision of future seems not quite
  helpful in learning algebra, calculus,
  quantitative decision making, ...
• On subject of history, his vision seems helps
  most. But do you think students knowledge of
  history is now better with helps of TV, movie,
  and computer, than that 100 years ago when learnt
  purely from books?

27
On-Line Course
Discussion

• In 1990, on-line course was not born yet.
• Advantages
• Disadvantages
• What courses might be most suitable to be taught
  on-line?

28
On-Line Course to Prevail?
Discussion

• Not all courses could be effectively taught
  on-line.
• More on-line classes will be seen.
• Whether a college to put a class on-line is based
  on multiple considerations, other than most
  effective teaching.
• Whether a student to take a on-line class is
  based on multiple considerations, other than most
  effective learning.

29
What Is a College Like in Future?
Discussion

• Who is teaching human professors or intelligent
  machines?
• Do students have to go to school?
• Are all courses on-line?
• Is a physical college necessary?
• If all courses were on-line and taught by
  machines, then what would be difference between
  colleges? - No more colleges and universities?

30
Topic 3. Communication

• p. 432 - 434

31
Functions of Communication
Kurzweil

• A mental need of a human is communication, which
  grants its physiological and psychological
  function.
• The social function of communication is sharing
  knowledge and carrying knowledge on.

32
Computers and Network
Kurzweil

• Kurzweils expectation for 2010
• Computers and computer networks are gateways for
  communication. (Internet)
• Intelligent software to help access and search
  information. (search engines)
• Standardized software on each end of a
  communication channel. (MS Explorer, Netscape,
  HTML language)

33
Where to find knowledge
Critiques

• Kurzweils expectation for 2010 in 1990 has
  largely come true.
• For where to find knowledge, we have search
  engines like Yahoos!, Google, AltaVista.
• More intelligent guider has appeared, - I know
  what knowledge you want. Come with me.

34
Paper as a Medium
Kurzweil

• Paper will still be a medium in communication of
  man-man or man-machine.
• Electronic documents has not caused reduction of
  paper use. US has used 2,500 billion pages in
  1986, while only 850 billion pages in 1981. That
  is because ...
• ... increase of productivity of producing paper
  documents.

35
Videophone
Kurzweil

• We have almost accomplished it.
• Need to improve
• Image quality
• Video, not only pictures
• Popularization.

36
Robotic Person Imitator (RPI)
Kurzweil

• It is a robotic substitute of a human, with same
  look and feel.
• It acts and moves exactly the same way as the
  real person thousands miles away.
• So, meeting a person does not have to be a
  personal meeting. It could be a
  person-imitator or imitator-imitator meeting.

37
RPI, Realistic?
Critiques

• It is can described as a lifelike sensor and
  actuator being remotely controlled.
• It is not an independent robot that acts on its
  own will.
• One person can technically have many imitators.
  So, ...
• Laws on murdering, raping, robbery, harassment,
  privacy, ..., must be updated with RPI.

38
Nature of Cities
Kurzweil

• What was initial purpose of a city?
• Facilitating manufacturing and transportation.
• What is purpose of a city after highways and
  railways have made it unnecessary to live in the
  manufacturing / transportation center?
• Communication.
• When we can communicate and meet anyone without
  leaving home, the need for a city diminishes.

39
Humans Need City
Critiques

• Functions of a city that failed to mention by
  Kurzweil
• Social, entertainment, businesses, politics /
  government.
• Do humans by their nature tend to live close by
  or alone?
• Does a human feel comfortable staying home year
  by year, talking to outside with phones and
  e-mails, and sending his imitator to meet friends
  and attend socials who are likely also imitators?

40
Gratification of Information Will Level off
Critiques

• The feel of gratification for the amount of
  available information will level off when the
  amount of information available reaches certain
  digestible point.
• Similar rules occur on air, water, food, clothes,
  ...
• The more information available, the better.
  Is it true?

41
Topic 4. Warfare

• p. 434 - 438

42
Smart Weapon
Kurzweil

• A primary thrust of computing on warfare is smart
  weapon.
• Auto-piloting and pattern-recognition have
  resulted in accurate destruction of targets
  without damage to neighboring civilian population
  and facilities.

43
Defense Strategy with Smart Weapon
Kurzweil

• Smart weapon can be used tactically to won a war,
  and strategically to deter the enemy.
• First line of defense
• Conventional weapons with intelligence.
• Second line of defense
• Nuclear weapons.

44
Combat in Future
Kurzweil

• Between smart flying weapons, missiles, robot
  planes, and flying munitions, that can be
  launched from virtually any place on earth or
  from space as well as laser weapons and particle
  beam weapons.
• Cornerstones of combats
• Command, Control, Communication

45
Geography Factor Fades Out
Kurzweil

• Geography is losing its strategic importance.
  Slow moving vehicles as tanks and ships, and
  battle stations, no matter land-, sea-, air-, or
  space- based, will be vulnerable.

46
War Is not a Video Game
Critiques

• Kurzweils vision of future war is like a video
  game.
• A war will be bloody and dirty, and never be as
  clean as a video game.
• death, misery, cruelty, brutality, barbarity will
  be the reality.
• In addition to smart weapons, there are WMDs
  nuclear weapons, chemical and bio-chemical
  weapons, ...

47
Rule of Minimum Morality
Critiques

• In a game or conflict without rules and referees,
  the rule of minimum morality prevails
• The cleanness of the game is determined by the
  dirtier side.
• Prisoners dilemma -

48
War in Future
Kurzweil

• If human reflexes and eventually human decision
  making, at least on a tactical level, are
  replaced with machine intelligence, then two
  societies could let their machine fight out the
  conflict in some remote place and let them know
  who wins.

49
Abolition of War, - By What?
Critiques

• It is not computing technology that will change
  humans brute war to a video or sport game.
• It is humans civilization, fraternity, equality,
  and respect for value of life that will
  eventually bury the war forever.

50
Topic 5. Medicine

• p. 438 - 441

51
Predictions for Early 21st Century (1)
Kurzweil

• Blood tests will be analyzed by cybernetic
  technicians
• Electrocardiograms will be analyzed entirely by
  computer
• Diagnosis will be reliant on all kinds of
  non-invasive imaging, such as sonic and
  particle-resonance

52
Predictions for Early 21st Century (2)
Kurzweil

• National data bank of patients
• Expert systems will influence all diagnostic and
  treatment decisions
• Computers are widely used in new medicine design
  and development
• Heart disease and cancer are likely to be
  conquered.

53
Smart Drug
Kurzweil

• This drug will be actual living cells with a
  measure of intelligence, which will be smart
  enough
• to identify an enemy pathogen and destroy or
  pacify it
• to self-destruct after completing the mission.

54
What Doctors Do Then?
Kurzweil

• With machines playing crucial role in routine
  medical activities, doctors will do
• Research and organizing of medical knowledge to
  enrich expert systems
• Strategic medical decision making
• Reviewing diagnostic recommendations in
  complicated cases.

55
Doctors without Experience?
Critiques

• If doctors do not have practice and experience on
  diagnosis and treatment, how could they come up
  with new knowledge to enrich the expert systems?
• Medicine is a subject that needs practice and
  experience. Medicine is not pure math.

56
Topic 6. The Handicapped

• p. 441 - 443

57
How Will Computing Help the Handicapped
Kurzweil

• Reading machine for the blind,
• Navigational aids for the blind,
• Seeing machine for the blind,
• Speech-to-text aids for the deaf,
• Hearing machine for the deaf,
• Artificial limbs with intelligence for the
  paraplegics and quadriplegics.

58
Topic 7. Music

• p. 443 - 444

59
How Will Computing Change Music
Kurzweil

• New instruments
• New sounds without direct acoustic and
  instrumental counterpart.
• Composing - sequencer to get the performance
  effect and music notations at same time.
• Live music performance
• Composition assistant software -

60
Computing Makes Music Popular
Discussion

• Computer has made art and music appeal for both
  the more and the less cultured.
• Ordinary people can be artists and musicians.
• Art and music no longer belong to those people
  with leisure.

61
Computing Changes Entertainment
Discussion

• Music used to be played in churches, royal
  palaces, and theatres of upper class.
• Composers and music players were few elites in
  society.
• There were no concert with thousands of audience.

62
Topic 8. Politics

• p. 445 - 447

63
Cornerstones of Power
Kurzweil

• Used to be
• Land, Geography, Natural resources, Labor.
• They are shifting to
• Technology, Human intellectual resources.

64
Tech Replaces Natural Resource for Cornerstone
of Power
Kurzweil

• The cornerstones of power during the 1st
  industrial revolution Geography, natural
  resources, and manual labor are rapidly
  diminishing in importance and relevance. p.445
• We can only conclude that the strategic
  variables controlling our future are becoming
  technology and, in particular, the human
  intellectual resources to advance technology.
  p.446

65
Scarce Natural Resources Will Remain Scarce
Critiques

• Although computer does not need scarce natural
  resources, people in the computer age need them.
• Oil, natural gas, iron/steel, food, ...
• The resources are more scarce since people are
  getting richer due to computing technology, and
  the richers need more.

66
Land and Labor Still Matter
Critiques

• Labors will be needed as before, albeit the type
  of labors is changing from blue collar workers to
  white collar professionals.
• Land, which carries scarce resources, needed
  professionals, and infrastructures, will remain a
  cornerstone of power.

67
Technology Adds to Cornerstones
Critiques

• Technology just adds to the traditional
  cornerstones of power, rather than replace them.

68
Computing Would Imperil Controlled Society
Kurzweil

• Creativity and innovation cannot be forced.
• Unstoppable computer networks provide a platform
  for free speech, promote free communication, and
  encourage the open society.
• Controlled societies are at stake.

69
Computing May Help Totalitarian Government
Kurzweil

• Computers play today an indispensable role in
  legitimate law enforcement. A dictator can use
  it equally.
• Computer technology can help build an efficient
  and effective totalitarian control.

70
Creativity Is Not Forced ? No Creativity in a
Forced Society
Critiques

• It is a fortunate truth of human nature that
  creativity and innovation cannot be forced.
• Be alert not to be misled by the above statement
  that there is not creativity in a highly
  controlled society.
• Germany in WWII, Soviet Union, China

71
How It Influences Society Depends on Who Controls
It
Critiques

• The last paragraph of this topic on
  p.447 Computer technology may lead to a
  flowering of individual expression, creativity,
  and communication or to an era of efficient and
  effective totalitarian control. It will all
  depend on who controls the technology. A hopeful
  note is that the nature of wealth and power in
  the age of intelligent machines will encourage
  the open society. Oppressive societies will find
  it hard to provide the economic incentives needed
  to pay for computers and their development.
• It is true that it depends on who controls the
  technology.
• Oppressive government will have political
  incentive for computer development at any cost!

72
Computing Is Not Omnipotent
Critiques

• Although computing by its nature encourages an
  open society, its effects on ending
  totalitarianism should not be exaggerated.
• Computing is just a tool.
• Computing is not an omnipotent drug to get
  freedom and democracy prevailing.
• The first quote on p.445 is arrogantly optimistic
  about computing.

73
Topic 9. Our Concept of Ourselves

• p. 447 - 449

74
Intelligent Computers Are Beginning to Accomplish
Kurzweil

• Musical performances
• Teaching some skills and knowledge
• Diagnosing and remedial treatment
• Designing drugs
• Performing medical operations
• Locating underground resources
• Flying planes.

75
More Difficult Tasks
Kurzweil

• Reading books
• Understanding the contents of a book
• Passing the Turing test.

76
Most Difficult Tasks
Kurzweil

• Watch a moving scene and understand what is going
  on
• Imitating humans subtlety
• Pass the Turing test with face-to-face
  communication.

77
Human vs. Machine Intelligence
Kurzweil
Human Machine
Computing speed Slow Fast
Size of memory Large Larger
Reliability of memory Dubious Accurate and Reliable
Capability of thinking Good Poor
Improved in past 50 years? No Yes, dramatically
Will improve in next 50 years? Not likely. Very likely and dramatically
78
Are We Unique?
Kurzweil

• We may not be the smartest species in the
  universe forever, simply because we can create a
  species that is smarter than us.
• Maybe we will fail and go back to appreciate the
  inherent value of being unique human.