AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES

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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES

• OUSMANE BADIANE
• Director for Africa
• International Food Policy Research Institute

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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
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PRE-CRISIS ERA COINCIDED WITHLONGEST PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED GROWTH SINCE 60S
SOURCE Badiane 2008 IFPRI Policy Brief No. 9
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THE GROWTH IS ACCELERATINGAS WELL AS SPREADING
GEOGRAPHICALLY
SOURCE IFPRI / Badiane and Ulimwengu Data from
national account s / UN database
http//data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?dSNAAMA
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• THIS IS REFLECTED IN
• BETTER PRODUCTIVITY AND TRADE PERFORMANCE

AFRICAN VS WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME)
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
AFRICA
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
WORLD
AFRICAN VS WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE)
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POVERTY LEVELS HAVE STARTED TO DECLINE BUT NOT
FAST ENOUGH TO MEET MDG1
POVERTY HEAD COUNT 1/DAY
SOURCE IFPRI/Fan. 2007H
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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
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THE GLOBAL FOOD PRICE CRISIS OF 2007-08
Source J. von Braun Data from FAO 2009 and IMF
2009.
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WAS THERE A FOOD PRICE CRISIS IN AFRICA?ECOWAS
Countries
Source ReSAKSS West Africa Node
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WAS THERE A FOOD PRICE CRISIS IN AFRICA?COMESA
Countries
Source ReSAKSS East Africa Node
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LONG TERM WORLD FOOD PRICE TRENDS AND GROWTH
RECOVERY IN AFRICA
US/ton
Source IFPRI / M. Rosegrant (prelim. results
with IMPACT-WATER).
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FACTORS BEHIND FOOD PRICE TRENDS INCOME
POPULATION GROWTH, MEAT AND DAIRY CONSUMPTION
2005/1990 ratios of per capita consumption
  India China Brazil Nigeria
Cereals 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0
Meat 1.2 2.4 1.7 1.0
Milk 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.3
Fish 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.8
Fruits 1.3 3.5 0.8 1.1
Vegetables 1.3 2.9 1.3 1.3
Source IFPRI/ v. Braun - Data from FAO 2007.
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FACTORS BEHIND FOOD PRICE TRENDS VERY SLOW GROWTH
IN FOOD PRODUCTION OVER THE LAST DECADE
Million tons
Total Million tons
Source IFPRI / v. Braun - Data from FAO 2003,
2005-08. Forecast.
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VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO GLOBAL MARKET
CHANGES
RATIO VALUE AGRIC TRADE TO AGRIC GDP 2000 - 2006
DRC
AFRICA
CAR
Individual Countries
NOTES Agricultural trade is the value of
agricultural exports plus value of agricultural
imports SOURCES Agricultural trade Food and
Agriculture Organization, FOASTAT 2008
Agricultural value added World
Development Indicators, 2008
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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
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IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON AGRICULTURE

• THE IMPACT CHANNELS

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IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS DEMAND,
PRICES, AND AFRICAN EXPORTS
IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
IMPACT ON OVERALL AFRICAN EXPORTS
Source IFPRI/Estrades and Laborde
Price data from IMF World Economic Outlook
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Finance constraints (actual country estimates)
Source IFPRI/Estrades and Laborde
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FDI AND AGRICULTURAL SECTOR GROWTH IN AFRICA
Source IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu
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FINANCIAL CRISIS, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AND
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH
1970-1980
1981-1990
1991-1999
2000-2006
Source IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu
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MACROECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL
CRISIS IN AFRICA
Source IMF World Economic Outlook
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THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON GROWTH
TRENDS IN AFRICA
Source IMF World Economic Outlook
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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
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THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAMME (CAADP)
PILLAR FRAMEWORKS
SECTOR COMPACTS
KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS
STRATEGIC ISSUES
LT INVEST. OPTIONS
BENCHMARKING
SUCCESS FACTORS
COMMITMENTS
PEER REVIEW

• SECTOR POLICIES
• BUDGET POLICIES
• DEV. ASSISTANCE
• POLICY DIALOGUE

BEST PRACTICES
MUTUAL LEARNING
POLICY ELEMENTS
EVIDENCE/OUTCOME BASED PLANNING
AND IMPLEMENTATION
SHARED LT FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION
DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP AND ACCOUNTABILITY
BETTER POLICY, GROWTH, POVERTY, AND FOOD SECURITY
OUTCOMES
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OBJECTIVES AND OUTCOMES OF COUNTRY ROUND TABLE
AND COMPACT
1. MAKE SURE THAT THE COUNTRY IS ON TRACK TO
ACHIEVE THE CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGETARY
OBJECTIVES, IF NOT 2. IDENTIFY EVENTUAL GAPS IN
TERMS OF SECTOR POLICY, BUDGETARY, AND
INVESTMENT MEASURES
OBJECTIVE OF ROUND TABLES

• ELABORATION OF A COUNTRY CAADP COMPACT TO GUIDE
  THE
• IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP IN THE LONG TERM ,
  INCLUDING
• 1. COMMITMENTS IN TERMS OF SECTOR POLICIES,
  PUBLIC
• EXPENDITURES, AND DEVELOPMENT
  ASSISTANCE
• 2. ESTABLISHEMENT OF PARTNERSHIPS AND
  ALLIANCES
• FOR SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF
  CAADP
• 3. CREATION OF A MECHANISM FOR PEER
  REVIEW AND DIALOGUE
• TO TRACK IMPEMENTATION PERFORMANCE
  AND THE PROGRESS
• IN MEETING THE AGREED ON
  COMMITEMENTS

OUTCOMES OF ROUND TABLES CAADP COMPACT
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CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT
OUTCOMES

• I. DEVELOPED COMPREHENSIVE AND OBJECTIVE
  DRIVEN STRATEGY
• FRAMEWORK WITH LIMITED SET OF CLEAR TARGETS
• II. EVALUATE COUNTRY EFFORTS AGAINST DEFINED
  TARGETS
• SHARED INVESTMENT AND PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK
• III. SPECIFY ALTERNATIVE ACTION SCENARIOS AND
  OUTCOMES
• BASELINES - MILESTONES - ACTION TARGETS -
  TOOLS
• IV. SET UP BENCHMARKING AND LEARNING MECHANISMS
• KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS INFRASTRUCTURE
• V. ESTABLISH POLICY REVIEW AND DIALOGUE PLATFORM
• INCLUSIVE FORA AT COUNTRY LEVEL AND BEYOND

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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES
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LONG TERM CHALLENGE NO. 1 BRIDGING THE GROWTH
GAP TO ACCELERATE POVERTY REDUCTION
Actual Poverty Rate in 1990
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LONG TERM CHALLENGE NO. 2 BRIDGING THE
EXPENDITURE GAP TO ACCELERATE GROWTH
Actual Poverty Rate in 1990
Source Dollar a Day Poverty Rates from World
Bank, PovCal Net, 2008 poverty line 1.25
Projected CAADP Poverty Rates from
various IFPRI country CAADP Growth Simulation
Studies
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THE EXPENDITURE CONVERGENCE AGENDA MAXIMIZING
SYNERGY BETWEEN GROWTH AND SOCIAL INVESTMENTS
Sources Government spending Global database on
public spending, DSGD, IFPRI, 2009 and ODA
OECD, 2008
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EFFECT OF 10 INCREASE IN SERVICES EXPENDITURE ON
SOCIAL OUTCOMES, AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY, AND
POVERTY
HEALTH SERVICES
EDUCATION SERVICES
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MEETING THE DOUBLE CHALLENGEOF GROWTH
ACCELERATION AND SOCIAL PROTECTION

• BASIC STRATEGIC QUESTIONS

HOW TO MAXIMIZE SYNERGY BETWEEN SOCIAL SERVICES
AND PRODUCTIVITY ENHANCING INVESTMENTS
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HOW TO EXPLOIT GROWTH EXTERNALITIES OF SOCIAL
SERVICES
3
HOW TO IMPROVE CONSIDERATION OF GROWTH SYNERGIES
IN BUDGET PLANNING AND NEGOTIATIONS
4
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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES

• CONCLUSIONS

1

• HAS REMARKABLE RECOVERY COMPENSATED FOR THE 2.5
  DECADE ECON. STAGNATION? NO
• STILL LARGE POCKETS OF POVERTY
• PROGRESS TOWARDS POVERTY MDG PICKED UP PACE BUT
  NOT ENOUGH FOR MOST
• NEED TO ACCELERATE AND BROADEN GROWTH TO REDUCE
  POVERTY FASTER

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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES

• CONCLUSIONS

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• GLOBAL CRISES ARE A THREAT BUT ALSO FULL OF
  OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICAN ECONOMIES
• AFRICAN ECONOMIES HAVE SHOWN GREATER RESILIENCE
  THAN DURING PAST CRISES
• AFRICAN AGRICULTURE IS WELL POSITIONED TO COMPETE
  AND BENEFIT FROM LONG TERM GLOBAL PRICE TRENDS
• UNPRECEDENTED CONTINENT WIDE EFFORTS UNDER CAADP
  TO
• IMPROVE POLICY PLANNING / IMPLEMENTATION
• RAISE GOVERNMENTS INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE.

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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN
AFRICAIN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES

• CONCLUSIONS

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• THE RECOVERY OF LAST 15 YEARS HAS CREATED A
  STRONG FOUNDATION TO BUILD UPON
• BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HIGHER RETURNS TO
  INVESTMENTS IN AND ASSISTANCE TO AFRICA
• UNPRECEDENTED CONTINENT WIDE EFFORTS UNDER CAADP
  TO
• IMPROVE POLICY PLANNING / IMPLEMENTATION
• RAISE GOVERNMENTS INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE
• AND SUSTAIN / DEEPENTHE RECOVERY PROCESS