NEW GLOBAL MIGRATION REGIME: SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR AUSTRALIA

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NEW GLOBAL MIGRATION REGIME SOME IMPLICATIONS
FOR AUSTRALIA

• by
• Graeme Hugo
• University Professorial Research Fellow
• Professor of Geography and Director of the
  National Centre for Social Applications of GIS
• The University of Adelaide
• Presentation to Year 12 Geography Night
• 25 August 2008

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Outline of Presentation

• Introduction
• A New Global Migration Regime
• How Does Migration Influence Development?
• The Implications for Destination Countries like
  Australia
• Conclusion

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On 14 and 15 September 2006, high-level
representatives of all States Members of the
United Nations gathered in the General Assembly
to explore one of migrations most promising
aspects its relationship to development. The
potential for migrants to help transform their
native countries has captured the imaginations of
national and local authorities, international
institutions and the private sector. There is an
emerging consensus that countries can cooperate
to create triple wins, for migrants, for their
countries of origin and for the societies that
receive them.
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The New International Migration

• Increased scale and complexity
• Virtually all nations influenced
• Transnationalism replaced permanent settlement as
  dominant paradigm
• Increased involvement of women
• Increasing significance of south-north migration
• A bifurcation in attitudes toward skilled and
  unskilled migrants
• Overlapping of permanent and temporary migration
• Development of a migration industry
• Increasing scale and importance of diaspora
• Countries should not be seen as only immigration
  or emigration countries

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Number of Chinese travelling abroad for business
and tourism 1981-2003 and total number of
outbound trips from China, 1997-2004Source Far
Eastern Economic Review, 24 June 2004, p. 30
Asia Times Online, 9 February 2006
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Persons Living Outside Country of Birth (United
Nations)

• 1960 76 million
• 2000 175 million
• 2005 191 million
• 10 percent of MDC population
• 1.4 percent of LDC population

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International Migration Between Less Developed
and More Developed CountriesSource United
Nations Population Division, Trends in the
Migrant Stock, The 2005 Revision
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Persons born in South Nations Enumerated in
OECD Nations at the 2000 Round of
CensusesSource OECD data base on immigrants and
expatriates
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Region of Birth of Foreign-born in OECD
Countries, 2000Source Dumont and Lemaitre 2005
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Increased Involvement of Women

• 49 percent of migrants
• 10 percent of refugees, 75 percent with children
• High level of occupational specialisation
• High vulnerability to exploitation
• Special contexts, e.g. marriage migration
• Complex nexus with changing role of women

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Drivers of International Migration The 3 Ds

• Demography
• Development
• Democracy
• Evidence of Widening Differentials (GCIM)

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Facilitated by

• Cheapening of international transport
• Information and communication technology
• Proliferation of networks
• Development of international migration industry
• Internationalisation of labour markets

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Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency
RatesSource World Bank, 2006
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Why is there an Increased Focus on Migration and
Development?

• Increased international migration
• Shift in flow to south-north migration
• Hyper connectivity of transnational communities
• Increased focus on positive effects of migration
  in origin areas

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Migration and Development Discourse

• Until recently dominated by brain drain
  considerations
• Loss of human capital, constraint on development
• Loss of key groups needed for wellbeing

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New Orthodoxy

• World Bank, Asian Development Bank, DFID, USAID
• Human capital not effectively used at home
• Migrants can contribute significantly to
  development at home
• A complex two way relationship

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Brain Drain

• 88 percent of OECD immigrants from LDCs have
  secondary or higher education
• Loss of human capital
• Philippines one third of college graduates
  outside the country
• Loss of the brightest and the best

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Physicians per 100,000 People, 1990-2004Source
Human Development Report 2005
 
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Australian Medical Workforce (2001)

• 5.7 percent born in Africa/Middle East
• 16 percent born in Asia
• 32.9 percent overseas-born in 2006

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Nexus Between Student Migration and Brain Drain

• 2 percent of 100 million students outside country
  of birth
• US 586,000
• Increasing significance of other countries
• International flow of fees/costs US30 billion
• Increasingly immigration policies of north
  countries designed to facilitate student
  migration and subsequent permanent settlement

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Australia 2004-05

• 43,895 of 123,424 immigrants were already in
  Australia
• 16,485 of 123,424 immigrants students who
  applied for and received permanent residence
  within Australia
• More than half of skilled migrants had an
  Australian qualification

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Australia Overseas Students Transferring to
Permanent Residence by Country of Citizenship,
2004-05Source DIMIA unpublished data
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More Complex Discourse

• Some human capital is not efficiently used in
  poor countries
• Diaspora can have positive developmental impacts
• Filipino econometric studies
• However also clear negative effects of loss of
  some skilled groups, especially medical workforce

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The Diaspora and Development in Origin Countries

• Remittances
• A source of FDI
• A bridgehead for exports
• Technology transfer
• Social remittances
• Return migration

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National Diasporas in Relation to Resident
National Populations Source US Census Bureau,
2002a and b Southern Cross, 2002 Bedford,
2001 Ministry of External Affairs, India,
http//indiandiaspora.nic.in Naseem, 1998
Sahoo, 2002 Iguchi, 2004 Gutièrrez, 1999
Dimzon, 2005 Asian Migration News, 15-31 January
2006 OECD database on immigrants and
expatriates Luconi 2006 Nguyen Anh 2005
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/korean_diaspora
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The Development of Diaspora

• Transnational communities long history
• Facilitated by modern ICT and transport
• Increased in size by large scale migration
• Countries of origin increasingly have diaspora
  policies

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Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing
EconomiesSource World Bank 2007b
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Effects of Remittances

• Investment
• Multiplier effects
• Received at grass roots
• Employment creation
• Poverty reduction

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Asia Remittances in US and as a share of GDP by
Country, 2004Source World Bank, 2006 World
Bank Key Development Data and Statistics Online
Database, Asian Migration News, 2005 Firdausy,
2005 Chalamwong, 2006, Asian Development Bank,
2005
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Remittances Sent by Overseas Vietnamese to
VietnamSource State Bank of Vietnam, Far
Eastern Economic Review, 16 January 2003, 48
Gundzik 2005 Voice of Vietnam News, 22 December
2004
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Negative Effects?

• Impacts of sudden disasters
• Putting off needed structural adjustment
• Dutch Disease

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Mobilising Remittances

• Neglect in government planning
• Taxation of Remittances
• Innovative programs in Mexico

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Links Between Migration, Trade and Investment

• FDI strongly influenced by diaspora
• - China
• - India
• The diaspora as bridgeheads
• Migration leads to an increase in trade (Canada)

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Networks

• Knowledge and information transfer
• Different types of networks
• - Family
• - Professional
• - Business
• Flow of social remittances

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in the current area of globalisation, global
links may be more important than the human
capital stock in a particular country. A
professional thus may contribute more value to
the home country by residing overseas than
returning permanently (Westcott, 2005, 268)
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Return Migration

• Permanent migration
• Temporary
• Brain circulation

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Australia Permanent Departures of Overseas-born
Persons by Country of Intended Residence, 1993 to
2003 Source DIMIA unpublished data
Overseas-born
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How Can the New Migration Facilitate Development?

• Sending Country Policy
• Receiving Country Policy
• International Co-operation

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Policy in Sending Countries

• Varied policies
• Changing perception of diaspora
• Policies to engage diaspora, cultural and
  language maintenance
• Setting up formal organisations
• Remittances
• FDI

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Policy in Sending Countries (Cont.)

• Engagement in national life voting
• Assisting network formation
• Encouragement of joint economic and research
  co-operation
• Taxation possibilities

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Receiving Country Policies

• Need for Development Friendly Migration Policy
• Facilitating remittances
• Encouraging circular migration
• Encouraging transnationalism
• Encouraging cultural and language maintenance
• Compensating brain drain countries
• Portability of entitlements
• The diaspora as a vehicle for development
  assistance?
• Accepting a range of migrants permanent and
  temporary, skilled and unskilled etc.

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Policy in Receiving Countries - Constraints

• OECD nations espouse development assistance goals
• Development goals can be perceived as in
  opposition to immigration goals
• Siloization of government
• Neo-liberalism of governments
• Ageing populations
• Competition arguments
• Human rights arguments

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Australia Combining Immigration Development
Assistance and Security Considerations?

• Potential use of unskilled temporary workers. Is
  there a mismatch between labour needs and current
  immigration policies?
• Facilitating transnationalism and
  multiculturalism
• A security dividend?
• The role of remittances
• Investments in education systems of origin
  nations
• Can we have a development friendly immigration
  policy while preserving the economic, social and
  demographic contributions of migration policy?

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Conclusion

• International migration will continue to increase
• Need for recognition that migration is inevitable
  and a permanent feature of international
  relationships
• Can it be harnessed as an engine for development?
• Need for more evidence based media reporting and
  policy development
• Need for change in policy orientations
• New concepts of national population
• Need for international co-operation
• Role of research in evidence-based decision making