Agricultural%20Labour%20in%20the%20EU

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Agricultural Labour in the EU

• Dyna-SPAT continuation of CAPRI (1997-2000) and
  CAP-STRAT (2001-2004)
• Galway team continuation of two strands of
  work a) labour/holder projections from CAPRI and
  b) estimations using FADN data, from CAP-STRAT

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CAPRI

• Main Papers to be followed up from
• 1) A Regional Analysis of the Changing Structure
  of Agricultural Land Holdings by Steele and
  Gaffney (98-05)
• 2) Notes on Agricultural Labour by Steele and
  Garvey (00-01)

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1. WP 98-05

• Main Focus on Methodology of Cohort Analysis e.g.

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Cohort Analysis gives Autonous Change

• It is possible to then model NA, the
  non-autonomous change (the difference between
  expected and actual changes)
• Some examples of results follow.

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CAP-STRAT also 2 papers

• 1) Estimation of Input Allocationfrom EU Farm
  Accounting Datausing Generalized Maximum
  Entropy
• Britz and Garvey, 2002 (Valencia)
• 2) Integration of input estimates into the CAPRI
  data base
• Britz, Adenäuer, Pfaffenzeller, Garvey,
• McInerney, 2004 (Leuven-la-neuve)

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Paper 1

• Implemented an Entropy Approach to Input
  Estimations, incorporating a number of FOCs and
  constraints.
• Included Labour Coefficients.
• Unfinished business

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Paper 2

• Straightforward non-system/univariate
  econometric estimations using the same FADN data
• Estimates found for a number of sometimes fairly
  aggregated inputs, not including unpaid family
  labour (though wages in real terms are included)

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Reconciliation with EAAs

• These econometric estimates (at national level)
  are then reconciled with EAAs, using additional
  sources of information (in particular, standard
  gross margins).
• Regionalization is possible based on (some of)
  the econometric coefficients and the regional
  SGMs. However, there is not full econometric
  regionalization.

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Next Steps..

• 1) More detailed FADN estimations, with emphasis
  on labour
• 2) Consider accession countries.
• 3) Revisit Paper 1 of CAP-STRAT
• 4) Development of Cohort calculations but how
  to tie into CAPRI?

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1) New FADN Estimations

• A) Incorporate regional slope coefficients
• B) Incorporate Labour (different types?), with
  farm size multiplicative effects
• C) Include more disaggregated inputs where
  possible
• D) Use more recent extraneous info. in EAA
  reconciliations (e.g. SGMs)

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2) Accession Countries Farm Labour

• The double problem projections and input
  estimations. Presumably use can be made of FADN
  type data for the latter.
• For the former, long term trends may have set in
  by now maybe not.

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3) Revisit Paper 1) CAP-STRAT

• Possible but unlikely to have time/resources.
  Nevertheless, some sort of system approach might
  be possible. Issue of incorporating economic
  behaviour into the estimations is interesting.

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4) Cohort Calculations, Other Sectors and CAPRI

• Cohort projections give autonomous changes in the
  number of holders. The difference between this
  change and the actual change ex post can be put
  down to Economic factors mainly. These can be
  estimated at some fairly aggregated level.

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Another possibility

• Some sort of dynamic Markov Chain analysis
• In either case the important thing is to model a
  link between the wider Economy and Farm
  Entry/Exit, and by implication farm size.

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Linking the two tasks..

• Using some sort of link (probably farm size) the
  wider economic model can link with labour inputs
  e.g. non-Ag. GDP rises, expected returns to
  non-Ag. work rise, people leave agriculture,
  average farm size rises. This means linking to
  L inputs - that labour used per activity (almost
  certainly) falls and farm income per capita rises.

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Thats it!