LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS MEXICO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE
DISASTERSMEXICO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

• Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
  Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

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MEXICO
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NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN
MEXICO
FLOODS
GOAL PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
DERIVHIGH BENEFIT/COST BY BECOMING DISASTER
RESILIENT
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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SOME OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ARE IN MEXICO
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Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters

• Planet Earths heat flow causes movement of
  lithospheric plates, which causes subduction,
  which causes VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

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VOLCANOES

• PART OF THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE, MEXICO HAS
  ACTIVE VOLCANOES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX
  SUBDUCTION OF THE COCOS PLATE BENEATH THE NORTH
  AMERICAN PLATE

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MEXICO THE NORTH AMERICAN AND COCOS PLATES
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MEXICOS VOLCANOES (NOTE POPOCATEPETL AND
COLIMA)
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IMAGES OF POPOCATEPETL

• MEXICOS BEST KNOWN ACTIVE VOLCANO AND THE SECOND
  HIGHEST VOLCANO IN NORTH AMERICA ERUPTED AS
  RECENTLY AS APRIL 17, 2013

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POPOCATEPETL AND PIRAMID DE COCHULA
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POPOs ERUPTION HISTORY

• In the past centuries before European came to
  Mexico, large eruptions produced giant mud flows
  that buried Aztec settlements, and even entire
  pyramids

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POPOs ERUPTION HISTORY

• After almost 50 years of dormancy, "Popo" came
  back to life in 1994 and has been producing
  powerful explosions at irregular intervals since
  then.

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VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS

• VERTICAL PLUME (can affect jet aircraft)
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

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POPOCATEPETL
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POPOCATEPETL
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VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS

• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS (can bury villages)
• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)
• VOLCANIC WINTER (causing famine and mass
  extinctions)

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A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE POTENTIAL
DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION INTERACT
WITH MEXICOS COMMUNITIES
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AN ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPETL (AKA POPO)
WOULD IMPACT NEARBY MEXICO CITY AND PUEBLA

• LOCATED 50 KM AWAY, 20 MILLION PEOIPLE ARE AT
  RISK

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MEXICO CITY, POPO AND AN AIRPLANE
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POPOCATEPETL
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CAUSES OF RISK
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC ASH
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
LAVA FLOWS
CASE HISTORIES
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
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LIKELY IMPACTS BASED ON POPOs ERUPTION HISTORY

• The pyroclastic mud flows can firm up like
  concrete once they stop, ruining farmland and,
  because they are difficult to remove, disrupting
  life in communities.

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LIKELY IMPACTS

• Ash can be especially harmful and even deadly to
  people who are unable to evacuate.
• Ash can also be deadly to livestock, on which the
  residents livelihood may depend.

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LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS

• Air traffic may disrupt the economy for long
  periods if the ash clouds intersect the routes of
  jet aircraft and are a threat to safety.

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LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS

• A new major eruption of Popocatepetl would likely
  have a devastating economic impact on local
  residents who may be subsistence farmers and some
  of the poorest of the poor.
• Ash would be especially deadly to people and
  livestock (on which livelihoods depend), and a
  potential disaster for jet aircraft.

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IMAGES OF COLIMA

• Colima is not one, but two different volcanoes,
  the oldest one called Nevado de Colima, that is
  located about 450 km (270 mi) west of Mexico City

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COLIMA
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COLIMA

• The Volcán de Colima, also known as Volcán de
  Fuego, is part of the Colima volcanic complex
  consisting of Volcán de Colima and Nevado de
  Colima.
• The youngest of the two, it is currently one of
  the most active volcanoes in Mexico and North
  America, erupting more than 40 times since 1576

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THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANIC--ERUPTION
DISASTER ISVOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
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A DISASTER is ---

• --- the set of failures that overwhelm the
  capability of a community to respond without
  external help  when three continuums 1)  people,
  2) community (i.e., a set of habitats,
  livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3)
  complex events (e.g., VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,)
  intersect at a point in space and time.

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Disasters are caused by single- or
multiple-event natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause extreme levels of
mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness,
economic losses, or environmental impacts.
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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the
  communitys buildings and infrastructure can be
  LOST for long periods.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely
  happen, not to mention the low-probability of
  occurrencehigh-probability of adverse
  consequences event.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO
  or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic
  framework for early threat identification and
  coordinated local, national, regional, and
  international countermeasures.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in
  a timely and effective manner to the full
  spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency
  situations.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and
  reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from
  either the current experience or the cumulative
  prior experiences.

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MEXICOS COMMUNITIES
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• School children and adults need masks to counter
  adverse health effects of breathing volcanic ash.

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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• Volcanic ash ruins crops and vegetation and
  disrupts aviation.

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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• Although a complex activity, timely evacuation is
  essential for volcano disaster resilience

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AIR AND LAND MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES ARE VITAL

• .

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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
• RESTORATION TO NORMAL AND RECOVERY USUALLY
  TAKE LONGER THAN THOUGHT.