The GLASS Model: The Use of Population Data in Global Modeling of Environment and Security

1
The GLASS ModelThe Use of Population Data in
Global Modeling of Environment and Security

• Marcel B. Endejan
• Center for Environmental Systems Research
  University of Kassel, Germany
• Workshop on Gridded Population Data
  2-3 May 2000

2
Overview

• Introduction
• The GLASS Model
• Crisis Probability
• Susceptible / Potentially Affected Population
• Need for gridded population data
• Specification for population data
• Conclusion

3
Introduction

• Many aspects of
• environment
• human security
• Extreme climate events
• Long term changes
• Response of society
• Quantification
• Integrated Model

environment
social
natural
human being
political
economical
4
GLASS Model
5
Security Diagram

• Three Concepts
• Degree of a certain stressor
• Susceptibility to this kind of stressor
• Crisis

Crisis Occurrence
e.g. Ethiopia 1973
No Crisis Occured
Environmental
e.g. Sudan 1953
Stressor
Boundary
High Probability
of Crisis
Boundary
Low Probability
of Crisis
State Susceptibility
6
Security Diagram - Indicators

• StressorFraction of country area with water
  availability substantially below normal
• SusceptibilityNormalized GDP per capGDP 1 -
  (GDP/100,000 US)
• CrisisDroughts from EM-DAT (600)

7
Security Diagram - Example
1
0.8
Stressor
0.2
0
8000 US/cap
0 US/cap
0.936
0.952
0.968
0.984
1
0.92
Susceptibility (GDP)
country year
reported drought
8
Security Diagram - Crisis Probability
Boundary high low crisis probability
0.8001.000
0.6000.800
Water Stressor
0.4000.600
Crisis
Probability

0.2000.400
10-15
5-10
0-5
0.0000.200
0.9360.952
0.9520.968
0.9680.984
0.9200.936
0.9841.000
Susceptibility 1-GDPnorm
9
Susceptible Population

• Young (lt14) and old (gt 60) people with GDP/cap
  below poverty line
• Poverty line according to World Bank
• Developing countries 1 US/day (365/a)
• Latin America 2 US/day (730)
• Eastern EuropeCIS 4 US/day (1460)
• Industrialized Countries 14.4 US/day (5256)
• Income distribution estimated using GINI index

10
Susceptible Populationselected countries
11
Need for Gridded Population Data

• To improve
• Concept of potentially affected population
• more detailed calculation of susceptible
  population
• Affected population susceptible population in
  affected areas
• stressor concept
• more detailed calculation of affected areas
• take water use into consideration

12
Specification for Population Data

• Gridded population data for different time
  intervals needed about
• population density per grid cell
• urban/rural fraction per grid cell
• access to water, food, and other resources
• Currently available
• population density per grid cell

13
Population Data - Used

• Calculation of domestic water withdrawals

14
Population Data - Used
15
Conclusion

• GLASS Model to quantify the linkage between
  environment and human security
• Population data needed to calculate
• water use, food demand (stressor/crisis
  probability)
• susceptible / potentially affected population
• Gridded population data (time intervals)
• population density
• urban/rural fraction
• access to water, food, and other resources