Global%20Climate%20Change%20and%20Regional%20Impacts:%20Are%20We%20Building%20the%20Right%20Kind%20of%20Drainage%20Structures%20to%20Handle%20Climate%20Change?

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Global Climate Change and Regional ImpactsAre
We Building the Right Kind of Drainage Structures
to Handle Climate Change?

• Eugene S. Takle
• Agronomy Department
• Geological and Atmospheric Science Department
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

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Outline

• Evidence for global climate change
• Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
• Simulations of global climate and future climate
  change
• Implications for stream flow and
• nutrient loss
• Summary

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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2004
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2040
2004
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual (fossil intensive) 2100
?
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Associated Climate Changes

• Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
• Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
  decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere
• Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased
  in extent by 10-15
• Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar,
  mountainous regions
• Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N.
  Hemisphere
• Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
• Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
• Snow cover decreased by 10
• Earlier flowering dates
• Coral reef bleaching

Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes,
1999 Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean
temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000
(Adapted from Folland et al. 2001).
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Amount of warming is in question, but all
models project a warming
Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers

• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world and other
  changes in the climate system
• Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to
  human activities continue to alter the
  atmosphere in ways that are
  expected to affect the climate

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for
  many centuries
• Further action is required to address remaining
  gaps in information and understanding

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Climate Surprises

• Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation
  (Greenland melt water)
• Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

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Regional Climate Change for the US Midwest

• Observed and projected changes in climate
• Impact on water quantity and water quality
• Policy implications

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Changes in Daily Maximum Temperature Projected
for 2040 by a Regional Climate Model
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Changes in Daily Minimum Temperature Projected
for 2040 by a Regional Climate Model
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Warming Hole
C
DTmax (JJA)
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For the Midwest

• Warming will be greater for winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
  day
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
  the probability of a heat wave
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
  now than in 1950)
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding

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Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin
119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL
Approximately one observing station per
sub-basin Approximately one model grid point per
sub-basin
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Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

• Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model
  (Arnold et al,1998)
• Assesses impacts of climate and management on
  yields of water, sediment, and agricultural
  chemicals
• Physically based, including hydrology, soil
  temperature, plant growth, nutrients,
• pesticides and land management
• Daily time steps

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Validation of SWAT Annual Stream Flow at
Grafton, IL
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Validation of SWAT Monthly Stream Flow at
Grafton, IL
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Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the
RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2
Global Model Results for the Contemporary and
Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
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Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by
the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with
HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary
and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
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Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under
Climate Change with Various Model Biases
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Relation of Runoff to Precipitation for Various
Climates
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Regional Climate Modeling for Informing Policy on
Water Quality

• How does the combination of climate change and
  land use impact water quality?
• Use nitrates and sediment as indicators
• What alternative land management strategies will
  improve water quality?
• What policies need to be
• implemented to achieve this water
• quality improvement?

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Maquoketa Watershed
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Scenario 1 all Agriculture
Scenario 2 all Forest
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Scenario 3 N. half Agric. and S. half Forest.
Scenario 4 S. half Agric. and N. half Forest.
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Scenario 5 Upper half Agric. and lower half
Forest.
Scenario 6 Lower half Agric. and upper half
Forest.
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Scenario 7 Main channel basins - Agric.
Scenario 8 Main channel basins - Forest.
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Improving Regional Climate Models

• Project to Intercompare Regional Climate
  Simulations
• Transferability Working Group of GEWEX

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Summary

• Regional climate models demonstrate sufficient
  skill to be useful for driving some climate
  impacts assessment models for the purpose of
  informing policy makers and decision-makers of
  vulnerabilities and opportunities associated with
  future climate change

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For More Information

• See my online Global Change course
• http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
• Contact me directly
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu