Climate Change and the Caribbean the Case and the Responses

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Climate Change and the Caribbeanthe Case and the
Responses

• Ian C King
• Project Officer
• Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean
  (ACCC) Project
• kingcpacc_at_sunbeach.net tel. [phone]

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Overview

• Is GCC really happening
• Why GCC is an issue for the Caribbean
• What have we been doing
• Challenges for the future particularly for
  National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

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The Evidence

• Prof. G. O. P. Obasi, WMO Secretary-General at
  8th UNFCCC COP
• Recalled that the WSSD held in South Africa
  called for GHG stabilisation to prevent dangerous
  anthropogenic influence and allow ecosystems to
  adapt naturally and so ensure sustainable
  development

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The Evidence - GHGs

• GHG Atmospheric concentrations
• By 1st COP in 1995
• 359.5 ppmv
• Increase of 28 since industrialization
• By end 2001
• 370 ppmv
• Annual growth rates fluctuates from 0.5 ppmv/year
  to 3.5 ppmv/year

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The Evidence Temperatures SLR

• 1990s warmest decade on record
• 1998 the warmest year
• 2001 the second
• Global average surface temperature
• Increase by 0.6 oC since the 1860s
• Most of warming in the 20th Century especially
• 1920 1945
• Post 1976
• IPCC suggest that most of the warming in last 30
  50 years due to anthropogenic sources
• Reduction in snow and ice cover especially in
  non-polar mountain glaciers
• Rise in average sea-level of 18 20 cm

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Global Temperature Variation 1860 2000IPCC TAR
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Global Temperature Variation over 1000 years
(Northern hemisphere) - IPCC TAR
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Variations of the Earths Surface
Temperature1000 to 2100
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Annual Precipitation(1901 1995)
Green increasing, Brown decreasing
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Annual Mean Sea Level in Key West
Fig. 2. Annual mean sea level at Key West from
1846-1992insert shows the bootstrap estimate of
the linear trend and itsvariability. The dashed
line is the least squares linear trendand the
solid lines are the 99 CI for the trend.
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Change in Annual Precipitationfor the 2050s
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Temperature Trends(1901 1996)
Red warming, Blue cooling
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Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations
Figure SPM-10a Atmospheric CO2concentration from
year 1000 to year 2000 from ice core data and
from direct atmospheric measurements over the
past few decades. Projections of
CO2concentrations for the period 2000 to 2100 are
based on the six illustrative SRES scenarios and
IS92a (for comparison with the SAR). Q9 Figure
9-1a
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The Evidence Weather

• Unprecedented weather extremes such as tropical
  cyclones, severe floods droughts
• Recently major storm events floods in Europe,
  Asia, Africa and South America
• Mozambique, 2000 storm events Elyne Gloria est.
  direct in-direct economic cost of 11.6 of GNP
• Record breaking droughts in middle Eastern
  countries, Brazil, Horn of Africa central Asia
  to N China
• China 2001 drought 2nd most severe since 1949
  (lt1978)
• 13 million people in Southern Africa affected by
  severe drought in 2002

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IPCC Assessments of Extreme Events with Climate
Change (TAR Summary for Policy Makers (SPM)
Working Group II, 2001)
Very likely (90) Likely (66-90) Moderately likely (33-66) (or lack of agreement between models)
More hot days heat waves Reduced frost days cold waves More intense precipitation events over many areas Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities mean and peak precipitation intensities (over some areas) Intensified floods and droughts associated El Nino events in many different regions Increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability Increased intensity of mid-latitude storms (especially in winter)
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The Evidence ENSO

• Warm ENSO episodes
• consistently leads to regional variabilities in
  precipitation temperature over tropics,
  sub-tropics some mid-latitudes
• More frequent, persistent and intense since the
  mid-1970s compared to previous 100 years
• Note 1997/1998 El Nino event was very strong
  affecting 110 million people and estimated to
  cost US 96 billion in damage
• Current El Nino is predicted to be weak
• IPCC 2001 - The Scientific Basis, SPM "...global
  warming is likely to lead to greater extremes of
  drying and heavy rainfall.....that occur with El
  Nino events in many regions".

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IPCC Third Assessment Report

• IPCC TAR in 2001 concluded
• there is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the past 50 years is
  attributable to human activities.

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Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean

• Worlds industrial powers (OECD) account for 20
  worlds population, but are responsible for gt50
  of global emissions the cause of global
  warming and resultant climate change.
• Developing countries emit lt 25 of total GHG
  emissions.
• Small Island States emit lt 1 of global
  emissions.
• SIDS have contributed little to the problem but
  are among the most vulnerable groups to GCC, and
  have low adaptive capacity.
• Hence adaptation rather than mitigation is most
  appropriate course

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Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean

• Expected climate change impacts for region
  include
• Sea level rise
• Saline intrusion into freshwater aquifers
• Coastal flooding and erosion
• Increased temperatures
• Heat stress
• Coral bleaching
• Biodiversity loss
• Increased emergence of vector borne diseases

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Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean

• Changes in rainfall patterns
• Droughts or floods
• Decreased fresh water availability
• Increased intensity of storm activity
• Direct damage of infrastructure
• Loss of lives

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Possible Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

• Direct damage to tourism plant and natural
  resources
• Coral reefs
• Beaches
• Loss of attractiveness of the region as a
  destination
• Impacts on health emergence of dengue, malaria,
  etc.
• Reduced dive tourism if coral reefs are damaged
• Milder Winters in the North
• Loss of employment in the industry
• Increased insurance costs for properties in
  vulnerable areas

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Significance of Estimated Changes

• Economists Erik Haites (IPCC leader)and Dennis
  Pantin (UWI St. Augustine) asked by World Bank to
  estimate damages that may arise to CARICOM
  countries based on IPCC TAR projections
• Temperature, rainfall, SLR, tropical storms and
  hurricanes

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Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
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Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
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Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
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Economic Impact of Climate Change in the
Caribbean (1999 US million)(components may not
sum to the total due to rounding)
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Summary of Economists Estimates

• Low scenario to 2050
• 1.5 billion in total damages
• Ranging from 3.5 to 16 GDP
• High Scenario
• US 9 billion per year
• 24 to 103 of GDP

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Increased Cases Due to Climate Change and
Associated Costsfor Selected Diseases, Cuba
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Climate Change A Priority for the Caribbean

• SIDS meeting, 1994
• BPOA
• Climate change identified as priority area of
  concern, requiring urgent action
• CPACC Project formulated after a series of
  national and regional consultations

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The Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global
Climate Change (CPACC) Project

• The GEF-funded Project (1997-2001) was executed
  by the Organization of American States in
  partnership with the University of the West
  Indies for Environment and Development, (UWICED)
  for the World Bank as the GEF Implementing
  Agency.
• The Projects overall objective was to support
  Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the
  adverse effects of GCC, particularly sea-level
  rise in coastal areas, through vulnerability
  assessment, adaptation planning and related
  capacity building.

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CPACC Project Components

1. Design and Establishment of Sea Level/Climate
   Monitoring Network
2. Establishment of Databases and Information
   Systems
3. Inventory of Coastal Resources and Use
4. Formulation of a Policy Framework for Integrated
   Adaptation Planning and Management
5. Coral Reef Monitoring for Climate Change
6. Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
7. Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine
   Resources
8. Formulation of Economic/Regulatory Proposals
9. Green House Gas inventory

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Accomplishments

• Nationally, all countries have NFPs and NICUs.
• In some countries, National committees have been
  established to address climate change.
• Establishment of a sea level and climate
  monitoring system that contributes to regional
  and global assessment of the issues
• Improved access and availability of data
• Increased appreciation of climate change issues
  at the policy-making level and technical support
  to better define the regional position at the
  conventions

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Accomplishments

• Meeting country needs for expanded vulnerability
  assessment, economic evaluation techniques,
  developing economic instruments and methodology
  for coral reef monitoring
• Created a network for regional harmonization
• Development of National Climate Change Adaptation
  policies and action plans

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After CPACC

• Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean
  (ACCC) Oct. 2001 Sept. 2004
• Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)
  Jan. 2003-Dec. 2006
• Caribbean Community Climate change Centre (CCCCC)
  Feb 2002 -

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Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean
(ACCC) Project

• Cdn. 3.4 million CCCDF grant from the Canadian
  International Development Agency (CIDA) to
  further capacity building efforts initiated under
  CPACC. Includes
• Development of business plan for Climate Change
  Centre
• Support for RPIU until CCCCC established and
  operational
• Development of a M.Sc. Programme in Climate
  Change at U.W.I.
• Developing sectoral studies on climate change
  impacts and adaptive responses

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ACCC Projects

• Project 1 Detailed Project Design and Business
  Plan for Regional Climate Change Centre
• Project 2 Public Education and Outreach (PEO)
• Project 3 Integrating Climate Change into a
  Physical Planning Process using a Risk Management
  Approach
• Project 4 Strengthening Technical Capacity
  through CIMH and National institutes, supporting
  Masters level course at UWI, development of
  region-specific climate change scenarios and
  liaison with other SIDS (in Caribbean and
  Pacific)

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ACCC Projects

• Project 5 Integrating Adaptation Planning in
  Environmental Assessments for National and
  Regional Development Projects
• Project 6 Implementation Strategies for
  Adaptation in the Water Sector
• Project 7 Formulation of Adaptation Strategies
  to Protect Human Health
• Project 8 Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture
  and Food
• Project 9 Fostering Collaboration/Cooperation
  with non-CARICOM Countries

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ACCC Progress to Date

• Developing risk management approach to address
  climate change impacts in the public and private
  sectors
• Following several workshops and training seminars
  to discuss approach
• Adapted the Canadian RM standard and terminology
  but adjusted to suit the region as well as
  utilising some aspects of the South pacific CHARM
  (Comprehensive Hazard and Risk management)
  methodology

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ACCC Progress to Date

• Regional Public Education and Outreach (PEO)
  Strategy drafted after extensive consultation
• Regional Capacity Development
• Commencement of the CC Masters
• Supporting and enhancing climate modeling
  capability at UWI
• CIMH support
• Commenced interaction with Pacific
• Collaboration with the CDB DMFC on the
  incorporation of natural hazards consideration
  into the EIA process

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Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)

• PDF B grant to assist in defining MACC project
  components
• Support national and regional consultations
• Sectoral and cross sectoral
• Prepare full project proposal/document MACC in
  final phase
• MACC finally approved by World Bank in April 03
  and should commence in late 2003 after some delay
  some elements commenced already under the ACCC

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MACC

• (a) Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in
  national development planning and public and
  private investment decisions.
• A key activity of the project will be the work
  with key sectors (such as water supply,
  agriculture, forestry, land use planning) to
  incorporate climate change impact and risk
  assessment in their ongoing programs and
  long-term planning.

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MACC

• (b) Assisting Institutional and Technical Support
  mechanisms
• (i) Assisting participating countries with Stage
  II adaptation under the UNFCCC
• (ii) Support and coordination for the
  preparation of the 2nd National Communications
• (iii) Mainstreaming through a Permanent
  Institutional Mechanism to Address GCC in the
  Caribbean

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MACC

• (c) Expand GCC monitoring and impact assessment
  as a basis for national and regional level
  decision making on adaptation. The following
  activities will be supported
• strengthening monitoring network
• wider geographical coverage
• integration of global and Caribbean networks
• increased scope of measurements and data
  collection
• downscaling global models
• modeling under climate change scenarios

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MACC

• (d)Cross-regional Dissemination and Replication
• Under this component, the project will undertake
  activities to facilitate replication by
  disseminating results and lessons learned to
  other regions. Specifically, the project will
  support efforts aimed at disseminating
  mainstreaming activities in the Caribbean, to
  Pacific Island Nations and other low lying areas.

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Climate Change Centre

• First Ministerial Meeting to consider the
  progress in the implementation of the BPOA
  mandated that a mechanism be in place to continue
  climate change work in the region after the
  conclusion of the CPACC Project
• On the recommendation of the Eighth Meeting of
  the Council for Trade and Economic Development
  (COTED)
• The initiative to establish a Regional Climate
  Change Centre was endorsed by the CARICOM Heads
  of Government at their Twenty-First Meeting of
  the Conference of Heads of Government of the
  Caribbean Community, 2-5 July, 2000
• Established as a legal entity at the CARICOM
  Heads of Government Intersessional Meeting,
  February, 2002.
• Set to commence following the start of the MACC
  project but building on that activity and the
  CPACC Project

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The Objectives of the Centre

• Promoting protection of the earths climate
  system
• Enhancing regional institutional capabilities for
  the co-ordination of national responses to the
  adverse effects of climate change
• Providing comprehensive policy and technical
  support in the area of climate change and related
  issues and spearheading regional initiatives in
  those areas
• Performing the role of executing agency for
  regional environmental projects relating to
  climate change
• Promoting education and public awareness on
  climate change issues
• Facilitating regional consensus for negotiations
  related to the UNFCCC