Time-invarying Covariates of Successive Births in Pakistan

1
Time-invarying Covariates of Successive Births in
Pakistan

• Ali Muhammad
• Ph.D. Candidate
• Department of Sociology
• University of Western Ontario
• London, Ontario
• Email amuhamma_at_uwo.ca
• Webpage http//beatific.topcities.com/Muhammad/Ali
  .html

2
TFR Trends Pakistan, 1962-2002
3
Objective of the study

• To estimate the hazards of having 1st, 2nd, 3rd,
  4th and 5th births with different attributes of
  women.

4
Data

• MIMAP (The Micro Impact of Macro Adjustment
  Policies) 2001
• Sample Size 4003 Households
• Women Interviewed (15-49) 4500
• Eligible Women 3349

5
Methodology

• Cox Regression
• Five models are estimated separately for each
  parity to examine the affect of different
  covariates.

6
Covariates

• Birth Cohorts (Younger born before 1968 and
  older after 68),
• Age at first marriage (lt 16, 16-19 and 20),
• Province of Residence (Punjab, Sindh, NWFP,
  Baluchistan)
• Type of Residence (Urban/ Rural),
• Education of mother (No schooling, 8 years, 9
  years),
• Employment status of mother (Working, Not
  working),
• Sex of surviving children,
• Participation in Household Decision-making,
• Family Planning Discussion with Husband,
• Can Go Out in Need and
• Life Satisfaction.

7
Results Birth cohorts




Reference Younger Cohort, Significant at
lt0.001
8
Age at first marriage
All coefficients are significant at lt 0.001,
Reference lt 16 years
9
Provinces and type of residence
Provinces Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having
Provinces 1st birth 2nd Birth 3rd Birth 4th Birth 5th Birth
Punjab (Ref) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Sindh 1.225 1.212 1.161 1.091 0.985
NWFP 1.217 1.179 1.030 1.000 0.948
Baluchistan 0.955 1.627 1.498 1.365 1.109
Type of Residence Type of Residence Type of Residence Type of Residence Type of Residence Type of Residence
Urban 1.050 0.929 1.089 1.065 1.057
Rural (Ref.) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10
10
Socio-economic variables
Education Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having
Education 1st birth 2nd Birth 3rd Birth 4th Birth 5th Birth
No Education 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
lt 9 years 0.811 0.980 0.947 0.888 1.028
9 years 0.480 0.748 0.694 0.516 0.527
Work Status Work Status Work Status Work Status Work Status Work Status
Working 0.910 0.973 0.908 0.928 0.850
Not Working 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 level Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 level Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 level Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 level Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 level Significant at lt0.001, lt 0.05 and lt0.10 level
11
Sex of children
Sex of Children Second Birth Third Birth Fourth Birth Fifth Birth
Sex of first Child Sex of first Child Sex of first Child Sex of first Child Sex of first Child
Boy (Reference) 1.000 - - -
Girl 1.037 - - -
Sex of first two children Sex of first two children Sex of first two children Sex of first two children Sex of first two children
Both Boys - 1.000 - -
Both Girls - 1.065 - -
One Boy, One Girl (Reference) - 1.000 - -
Sex of First Three Children Sex of First Three Children Sex of First Three Children Sex of First Three Children Sex of First Three Children
All Boys - - 1.095 -
All Girls - - 1.268 -
Two Boys, One Girl (Reference) - - 1.000 -
One Boy, Two Girls - 1.156 -
Sex of First Four Children Sex of First Four Children Sex of First Four Children Sex of First Four Children Sex of First Four Children
All Boys - - - 0.898
All Girls - - - 1.367
Two Boys, Two Girls (Reference) - - - 1.000
Three Boys, One Girl - - - 0.931
Three Girls, One Boy - - - 1.149
Significant at lt0.001, lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant at lt0.001, lt0.05 and at lt0.10
12
Survival status of previous child
All coefficients are significant at lt0.001
13
Womens autonomy variables
Decision-making Participation Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having Relative Risks of Having
Decision-making Participation 1st birth 2nd birth 3rd birth 4th birth 5th birth
Participate 0.909 0.850 0.864 0.928 0.843
Do not Participate (Reference) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
FP Discussion with Husband FP Discussion with Husband FP Discussion with Husband FP Discussion with Husband FP Discussion with Husband FP Discussion with Husband
Discuss 0.848 0.874 0.793 0.840 0.842
Do not Discuss (Reference) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Can Go out Unaccompanied Can Go out Unaccompanied Can Go out Unaccompanied Can Go out Unaccompanied Can Go out Unaccompanied Can Go out Unaccompanied
Yes 0.947 0.967 1.007 0.967 1.128
No (Reference) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Overall Life Satisfaction Overall Life Satisfaction Overall Life Satisfaction Overall Life Satisfaction Overall Life Satisfaction Overall Life Satisfaction
Very much satisfied 1.113 1.024 0.926 0.982 0.853
Satisfied to some extent 1.075 1.033 0.961 1.026 0.966
Not satisfied 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Significant level at lt0.001, at lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant level at lt0.001, at lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant level at lt0.001, at lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant level at lt0.001, at lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant level at lt0.001, at lt0.05 and at lt0.10 Significant level at lt0.001, at lt0.05 and at lt0.10
14
Conclusion

• What does make difference?
• Higher age at first marriage,
• Higher level of education,
• Sex of children,
• Survival status of previous child,
• Participation in household decision-making and
• Family planning discussion with husband.

15
Policy Recommendations

• Increase in age at first marriage by
• Increasing the opportunities for womens access
  to higher education and employment,
• Educating women to realize that either sex is
  better,
• Providing better health facilities to reduce the
  incidences of infant and child mortality,
• Encouraging women to participate in household
  decision-making as well as
• Making them able to discuss their FP matters with
  their husbands.

16
Thanks