Agenda setting in electoral campaigns

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Agenda setting in electoral campaigns
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How do people determine what issues, candidate
qualities, etc. are important in elections?

• By looking to their personal experiences?
• By asking others?
• By following the news?
• By following traditional values and knowledge?
• By engaging in personal research?
• There is a significant controversy over how the
  agenda is set

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Early discussion

• Early study of the impact of the press on the
  public tended to see the media as the source of
  public perceptions in the political arena
• Fits with much of democratic theory

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Lippmann

• In the early 1900s, Walter Lippmann noted a
  difference between the world outside and the
  pictures in our heads
• He compared what he knew about World War I and
  the coverage it received in the New York Times
• Large discrepancies
• Lippmann said that because people could not
  experience much of the world firsthand, they were
  dependent upon the news

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• Lippmann argued that the news was not a mirror of
  reality but a restless searchlight bringing
  one, then another object into view, and then
  moving on before the public could make sense of
  what had be identified
• People tended to stereotype things in order to
  deal with the complexity in the world

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• The upshot, according to Lippmann, was that for
  most topics at a distance from people, the public
  ended up with a distorted, stereotypical
  understanding
• Foreign policy

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Cohen

• In a study of the relationship between
  journalists and foreign policy officials, Bernard
  Cohen (1963) made the offhand comment that
• The press may not be successful much of the time
  in telling people what to think, but it is
  stunningly successful in telling its readers what
  to think about.

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McCombs and Shaw (1972)

• The first test of the agenda setting hypothesis
  using traditional empirical research methods
• McCombs and Shaw compared the issue agenda found
  in the top nine news sources used by voters in
  Chapel Hill, NC during the 1968 election campaign
  (Nixon-Humphrey-Wallace) to the agenda identified
  by 100 undecided voters.
• "The correlation between the major item emphasis
  on the main campaign issues carried by the media
  and voter's independent judgments of what were
  important issues was .967."

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McCombs and Shaw (1972)

• Most campaign coverage analyzed campaign strategy
  and horse race
• "While the three presidential candidates placed
  widely different emphasis upon different issues,
  the judgments of the voters seem to reflect the
  composite of the mass media coverage."
• "News media do have a point of view, sometimes
  extreme biases. However, the high correlations
  suggest consensus on news values, especially on
  major news items.
• "The media appear to have exerted a considerable
  impact on voter's judgments of what they
  considered the major issues of the campaign"

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Shaw and McCombs (1977)

• Charlotte, North Carolina 1972 (Ford-Carter)
  election expanded the sample to include the
  entire voting population.
• Message attributes the front page of the
  newspaper had the most impact
• The frequency of exposure to a given message is
  important.
• Greater impact on heavy media users
• Effect is cumulative
• effect of a particular message is tempered by the
  messages which the viewer has previously been
  exposed to.
• Period of influence of messages ranges from three
  to four months.

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• Longitudinal panel showed a .51 correlation from
  the newspaper agenda to the later public agenda,
  while only a .19 correlation from the public
  agenda to the later newspaper agenda.
• The Charlotte study also showed CBS and NBC to
  have greater short-term effect on voters than the
  Charlotte Observer newspaper (McCombs, 1977).
• Media messages can make salient both objects
  (topics or issues) and attributes of those
  objects.

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• Receiver characteristics
• need for orientation
• voting decision state (decided vs. undecided)

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• McCombs noted a significant correlation of 0.63
  between the national television agenda and the
  subsequent voter agenda, The newspaper agenda
  remained stable over time. The television agenda
  changed to become like the newspaper agenda.
  Voters seemed to follow the television agenda.

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• More "obtrusive" topics showed less impact of the
  media agenda
• Personally remote issues, such as foreign
  affairs, the environment, and energy appeared to
  decline in influence as the election neared,
  whereas the more personal issues such as money
  matters held a steady influence.

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Weaver, Graber, McCombs and Eyal (1981)

• A nine-wave longitudinal panel study of the 1976
  election campaign. The sites were Indianapolis,
  Indiana Evanston, Illinois and Lebanon, New
  Hampshire.
• Studied how voters learned about issues, the
  impact of message content, and demographic and
  lifestyle variables.
• Confirmed importance of voter need for
  orientation and issue "obtrusiveness"
• Agenda- setting was greatest early in the
  campaign. The influence of the media receded
  thereafter.

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• The salience of the candidate attributes in news
  messages transferred to the public
• Panelists were able to rate the two presidential
  candidates, Ford and Carter, along a wide range
  of image attributes man of principles, inspires
  confidence, compassionate, forthright, versatile,
  and so forth.

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• Need for orientation indicated
• In addition, "the voters least likely to be
  influenced by media issue agenda- setting are
  those with more education, higher status jobs,
  more prior political knowledge, and more interest
  in the campaign.
• The media did seem to have role in boosting name
  recognition early in the campaign.

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McLeod, Becker and Byrnes (1974)

• Studied the 1972 election in Madison, Wisconsin
• Two Madison newspapers exhibited different
  agendas for the campaign. The more liberal of the
  two newspapers gave the "honesty in government"
  issue six times the attention provided by the
  conservative paper. The differential agendas of
  the two newspapers were reflected in the relative
  importance which the two groups of readers placed
  on the issues.

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Benton and Frazier (1976)

• Three levels of people's information-holding
• 1) awareness of general issues
• 2) awareness of proposed solutions and
• 3) specific knowledge about proposals.
• A content analysis of three media and a survey
• Found high intercorrelations among media
  regarding economic content at level 2,
  agenda-setting at both levels 2 and 3
• newspapers primarily set the agenda for all
  media users
• Television did not set people's agenda at levels
  2 and 3

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The basic media agenda-setting hypothesis

• Media allocate space/time and emphasis
  differentially to public problems
• Total space or time and placement on the front
  page or at the beginning of the newscast
• These choices do not reflect reality but a set
  of editorial decisions based on a number of
  influences
• Readers/audience members pick up these emphases
  and interpret them as indicators of the real
  importance of the issues discussed

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Agenda-setting study

• The agenda setting hypothesis has generated a
  massive literature
• Over 400 (more by now) studies have been
  identified that tested some form of the
  hypothesis
• One of the most replicated and enduring findings
  in media research
• The hypothesis has been expanded beyond
  campaigns, and has taken public relations,
  advertising, talk radio, the State of the Union
  Address, and many other communications into
  account
• Influence of a wide range of media has been
  identified

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Agenda-setting study

• Intermedia agenda setting has been identified
• The prestige media influence others
• Crouse (Boys on the Bus)
• Rise of the internet, cable news, etc. has
  altered the media structure and the role of
  traditional news
• Additional influences on the media agenda have
  been studied
• Original studies took the media agenda as a given
• Policy agendas are now a major concern,
  especially in political science
• Public agenda influence on policy agendas was
  pretty much assumed at the outset

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A model of the agenda setting process
Source McQuail Windahl (1993)
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Two major questions concerning campaign agenda
setting

• How is the media agenda set?
• What is the effect of the media agenda on the
  election?

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Agenda setting in electoral campaigns

• What is an electoral campaign supposed to be
  about?
• Issues
• Which issues?
• Character
• What characteristics matter?
• How is character determined?

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To what extent does the media agenda reflect
real-world conditions?

• Scholars have pointed out that many important
  concerns are not emphasized in the media agenda
  and many rather unimportant ones are.
• AIDS
• Economy/bailouts
• Environment
• Drugs
• Abortion

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However,

• That does not mean that current events have no
  bearing on the media agenda. The relationship
  between actual events and media coverage appears
  to be partial and fluid.
• Some events, topics appear to generate coverage
  regardless of candidate or reporter intent
• Others are manufactured, discovered, etc.

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Media presentation

• The media present a partial, biased view of the
  world
• Choices on what to cover and how to cover it
  represent a number of influences other than
  reality impinging upon the journalists
• Drama
• Powerful sources
• Journalists own interests/biases
• Many more

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Agenda setting in electoral campaigns

• Who determines what the agenda will be?
• The media?
• The candidates?
• The public?
• Special interest groups?

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Agenda setting in electoral campaigns

• Each of the players in electoral campaigns has an
  interest in influencing the agenda
• Whatever is off the agenda cannot significantly
  impact the election
• Whatever is off the agenda will likely receive
  limited government attention
• Those issues/topics chosen to be on the agenda
  advantage certain candidates while disadvantaging
  others

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How is the media agenda set?

• Sources of influence
• Candidates seek electoral advantage
• Public statements
• State of the Union address
• Release of white papers/policy outlines
• Acceptance speeches
• Campaign ads
• Scoops, exclusives, etc.
• Dissemination via Internet in various ways
• Debates
• Public policy actions of incumbents

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How is the media agenda set?

• Sources of influence
• The media themselves want to be successful
  economically as well as in carrying out their
  democratic role
• Recognition of real-world issues
• Interest in sensational topics
• Perceived audience interest (ratings)
• Bandwagon effects
• Intermedia influences
• The general public wants important and/or
  emotional issues addressed
• Demonstration of interest to media
• Public discussion/debate
• Internet traffic

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How is the media agenda set?

• Special interest groups want their issues
  addressed (or hidden)
• PACs
• Financial support to those who espouse certain
  views, interests
• 527 groups
• Political advertising
• Other communications (Internet)
• Churches
• Sermons, etc.

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Influence on the public agenda

• Generates discussion
• Increases perceived importance of certain issues,
  candidate traits while decreasing the perceived
  importance of others
• Relative importance of positions/traits affects
  candidate evaluation
• Expectations relating to elected officials also
  are likely to be influenced

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What other influences on media agenda are there?

• Corporate influence
• Think tanks
• Journalists themselves
• Audience tastes/curiosity
• Interest/pressure groups

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Electoral impact of agenda setting

• Becker and McLeod (1976) argued that "the
  acceptance of these issues as the important one
  facing the country results in differential voting
  as well as distinctive communication behaviors.

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Influence on the policy agenda

• Candidates elected based on the emphasis given
  particular issues are expected to deliver on
  those issues
• Evaluation of performance is tied to issue
  emphasis as well as stance
• Post-election evaluations signal all officials of
  public concerns
• Even those who were not up for election read the
  tea leaves

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Influence on the policy agenda

• Critique even though appears that bills aimed at
  concerns high on the public agenda increase, the
  actual change in public policy is quite limited
  or non-existent
• Bill action, public speechmaking just for show
  while real interests take over and dominate
  policy formation

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Influence on the policy agenda

• Research generates mixed results

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Gandy (1982)

• The more indirect, undercover efforts by
  corporate and bureaucratic public relations
  specialists provide more effective means of
  influencing policy.
• Policy actors with sufficient resources to
  subsidize the information-gathering activities of
  other participants in the process are seen to
  influence the outcome of policy debates to their
  advantage.

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Cook et al. (1983)

• Quasi-experimental design "built around a single
  media event
• The results suggested that the media influenced
  views about issue importance among the general
  public and government policy makers
• Policy change likely resulted from collaboration
  between journalists and government staff members
  rather than public opinion

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Protess, Leff, Brooks and Gordon (1985)

• Used a quasi-experimental design to assess the
  impact of a newspaper investigative series about
  rape on a randomly selected group of Chicagoans
  and a purposive sample of policy makers. . . .
  the series had a minimal impact on public
  opinion and policy making, but affected
  profoundly the subsequent newspaper coverage of
  rape."

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Source Media Tenor
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Source Media Tenor
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Source Journalism.org
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• of the more than 1,700 campaign stories examined
  from January to May (2007), Tom Tancredo, Sam
  Brownback, Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee each were
  the focus of fewer than a dozen stories. The
  second tier Democrats fared only slightly better.
  There were five stories about Chris Dodd, 28
  about Bill Richardson, one about Dennis Kucinich,
  and 41 about Joe Biden.
• Project of Excellence in Journalism

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Intermedia Agenda 9/8-9/14/2008
Rank Newspaper Online Net TV Cable TV Radio
1 2008 Campaign 2008 Campaign 2008 Campaign 2008 Campaign 2008 Campaign
2 Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Hurricane Ike Hurricane Ike Hurricane Ike Sept. 11 Comm.
3 Hurricane Ike Sept. 11 Comm. Sept. 11 Comm. Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Hurricane Ike
4 Sept 11 Commemorations CERN Big Bang Fannie Mae Freddie Mac War on Terror Fannie May Freddie Mac
5 CERN Big Bang Machine Pakistan CERN Big Bang Sept 11 Comm Russia
6 Afghanistan North Korea Iraq Policy Debate Lehman Bros Sex Oil Interior Dept.
Source Project for Excellence in Journalism
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Source Media Tenor based on coverage
9/1-9/11/2008
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Recent coverage of economic issues favors Obama
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Economic news trend
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Tone in overall economic coverage
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Overall coverage for McCain/Palin positive, for
Obama/Biden negative
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Tax policy tone favors McCain
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Health policy tone favors McCain
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Early campaign coverage 2007
Source Project for Excellence in Journalism