The EU as a center of gravity for post-socialist countries: present and future

1
The EU as a center of gravity for post-socialist
countries present and future

• Svetlana Glinkina
• Institute of Economy Russian Academy of Sciences

2

• The future of Europe depends to a great extent on
  whether the European Union will be able to
  maintain its position as a strong gravitation
  centre for economies and societies in
  transition.

3

• On the whole, entrance to gravitation field of
  the European geopolitical centre had a positive
  effect for post-Socialist countries of the CEE.

4
The results of transformation by borrowing
European institutions. The case of CEE countries

• The perspective of EU membership played a role of
  external anchor in implementation of
  complicated institutional transformations by the
  candidate states.
• Apparent advantages of the way passed by the
  CEE countries include
• significant reduction in probability of
  appearance of political opposition to reforms,
  societal consolidation around the European
  idea,
• clear structuring of development programs,
• significant financial assistance
• increasing transparency of decisions made and
  reduction in scale of corruption.

5
Criteria of post-communist transformation
process completion

• Stabilization of a post-communist state
  positioned on the orbit of the planetary system
  being arranged by a geoeconomic gravity center,
  or the countrys independent formation of this
  system can be regarded as this criterion. This,
  however, does not exclude that even CEE
  countries, which have successfully completed
  their transition period as a result of EU
  accession, retain considerable specificity in
  both national economic performance and operation
  of political public institutions. So we could
  speak about the uncertainty (multivariability)
  of the final point of post-communist
  transformations.

6

• EU pays a very high price for enlargement
  eastwards

7

• The price of enlargement is not limited to
  financial investments in this project
• The question is on the extent of this
  enlargements influence on performance of
  long-term programs for extension of European
  integration stipulated by Maastricht and
  Amsterdam contracts on EU and other EU strategic
  decisions.
• The fact of emerging contradictions between
  previously proclaimed and successfully
  implemented integration principles EU expansion
  and deepening integration processes within its
  framework is recognized on all levels.

8

• EU non-uniformity (heterogeneity) is radically
  increasing.

9
Out of a nuclear weapon used primarily as
bargaining chip, advanced cooperation transformed
into a conventional weapon, fitting to easy
application and which will be applied in such
mannerN.Kaveshnikov
10
Models of the enlargements impact on
institutional structure of EU

• federalization,
• the formation of Europe of variable geometry and
• con-federalization

11
Variable geometry includes creation of subsystems
consisting of

• old members,
• the formation of quasi-integration blocs
  consisting of new members and anticipating
  admission neighbor states
• emergence of not-full members (new
  member-states of EU with limited rights Norway,
  Iceland, Switzerland are non-EU members, but
  theyre involved into integration process in
  individual spheres).
• Transition phenomenon differentiation turns
  into a permanent and formalized mechanism.