????(decision making): ????????????????,??????????????????,?????????

1
6
?????? ?????
2
?????????

• ????(decision making) ????????????????,??????????
  ????????,?????????

3
?????

• ????(Programmed Decisions) ???????.
• ???????.
• ?????(Non-programmed Decisions)
  ???????????,?????.
• ???????????

4
????????(The Optimizing Model or the Classical
Model)
???????? ????
?????????? ??? ???????? ????? ?????????? ?????
????
?? ????
??????
5
???????(The Satisficing Model or the
Administrative Model)

• ????????????????????? ?????.
• ????????.
• ????(Bounded rationality)
• ????????(cognitive abilities)??????.
• ?????(Incomplete information) ???????????????????
  ?.
• ???? ???????????????,??????????(acceptable
  decision) ,???????(optimum decision).
• ???????????,??????????

6
???????
??? ???? ???
?????
????? (Incomplete Information)
???? ????
7
????
????????
??????
?????????
???????
????????
????
8
???????????
??(Legal)?
????(Ethical)?
??????(Economical)?
????(Practical)?
9
????(Cognitive Biases)

• ????????(bounded rationality)??????(heuristics)???
  .
• ???( rule of thumb)????????.
• ?????????????,??????.
• ??????(Systematic errors) ?????????(incorrect
  heuristic)???.

10
???????
????
????
?????
????????
????
11
????

• ????????????.
• ????,??????????.
• ???????????
• ????(Group think) ??????????????????????.
• ?????????,???????,??????????????.

12
???????

• ?????????(Devils Advocacy)
• ???????(Dialectical inquiry) ???????????,???????.
  
• ??????????,??????.
• ????????(diversity),????????.

13
??? v. ???
Devils Advocacy
Dialectic Inquiry
Alter. 1
Alter. 2
Presentation of alternative
Critique of alternative
Debate the two alternatives
Reassess alternative accept, modify, reject
Reassess alternatives accept 1 or 2, combine
14
???? ??

• ????(Organizational Learning) ??????????????,????
  ????.
• ??????(learning organization)???.
• ??(Creativity) ???????????,???????????.
• ???????????????.

15
Senge????????????
Build complex, challenging mental models
Develop Personal Mastery
Encourage Systems Thinking
Build Shared Vision
Promote Team Learning
16
???????

• ??????????????..
• ?????????..
• ??,?????????,??????????,??????.
• ??,?????????????.

17
??????-?????

• ??????????????????.
• ??????????,???????.
• ????,?????????.
• ???????????????.
• ???????(Production blocking) ??????(brainstorming)
  ?????.
• ??????????????????,?????????????,????.

18
?????? ??????

• ??????(Nominal Group Technique)
  ???????????,?????????.
• ??production blocking???.
• ??????????????????????????.
• ?????????????,?????.
• ????,????.

19
?????? ?????

• ????(Delphi Technique) ??????,???????????.
• ????????????,??????????.
• ???????.
• ?????????????,??????.
• ??????????????..