Middle East as a Weapon of Mass Destruction Free Zone (MEWMDFZ)

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Middle East as a Weapon of Mass Destruction Free
Zone(MEWMDFZ)

• Presentation made by Jayantha
  DhanapalaPresident, Pugwash Conferences on
  Science and World Affairs

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Middle East
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• The BICCs Global Militarization Index (GMI) 2012
  states that the Middle East is the region with
  the highest level of militarization in the world.
  Five of the top ten countries in the GMI are
  situated in the Middle East Israel (position 1),
  Syria (position 3), Jordan (position 5), Kuwait
  (position 8), and Saudi Arabia (position 10).
  Followed by others such as Oman (position 12),
  Bahrain (position 14), and the United Arab
  Emirates (position 17) and Iran (position 32)
• The SIPRI Year book 2011 states that the
  estimated military expenditure in the M.E. in
  2010 was 111billion

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Non members of key conventions

• Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty Israel
• Biological weapons convention-Israel (Egypt and
  Syria are signatories but have not ratified yet)
• Chemical weapons convention Egypt, Syria,
  (Israel a signatory but not yet ratified)

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Brief History

• 17th session of the UNGA 1963- Egypt suggests
  nine conditions for establishing a NWFZ in the
  Middle East.
• 29th session of the UNGA 1974 - Egypt and Iran
  introduce a resolution calling for the
  establishment of a NWFZ in the ME. The resolution
  was adopted at the UNGA by a majority of 138
  members (Israel and Burma abstain)
• 1980 onwards no opposition to the annual
  resolution including Israel.
• 1986, Mordecai Vanunus disclosure of Israeli
  nuclear weapon capability.
• 1990 UN Report -study on effective and verifiable
  measures which would pave the way for a NWFZ in
  the ME -Recommends CBMs gives elements of an
  agreement

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1990 UN Study - elements of a possible agreement
of a MENWFZ

• Geographic extent obtain the necessary broad
  political and legal endorsement of the zone and
  overcome issues of ratification through the use
  of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties
  in which parties are committed not to act in a
  manner that would undermine the basic objectives
  of the agreement.
• Basic prohibitions the ban on any form of
  possession of a nuclear weapon by some States.
  Decisions will be needed on whether this ban will
  or will not extend to particular installations or
  equipment aimed at either the development or the
  delivery of a weapon.
• Verification -Procedures expanding and
  reinforcing present IAEA safeguards may be needed
  and it may be necessary to have staff dedicated
  to compliance problems that could arise regarding
  the zone.

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1990 UN Study cont

• Technical clauses -a "core group" to participate
  in the agreement as it is brought into force.
  arrangements for later accessions and for
  possible amendments to be made.
• Role of outside Powers- a commitment to respect
  the zone and especially to remedy any breach or
  threat of breach of its terms
• Duration and withdrawal -an unlimited duration
  suggested. The delay between notification of
  intent and the effective date of withdrawal
  should be as extended as can be justified.
• Relationship to other international agreements
  Zone to be not dependent on the continued
  viability of any other agreement but "preambular"
  endorsements of NPT etc and some defined
  relationship to IAEA and its safeguards system.
• Sourcehttp//unispal.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0/61ED044
  2418A2E9C052567D0005C1B48

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Developments in the 90s

• 1990 President Mubarak of Egypt proposes the
  establishment of a zone free of weapons of mass
  destruction in the Middle East. (expanding on
  longstanding calls to establish a NWFZ in the
  Middle East but to be pursued in parallel to the
  same).
• 1991-1995 The Middle East Arms Control and
  Regional Stability (ACRS) talks of the Madrid
  peace process was the first multilateral talks to
  address regional security.

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1995 NPTREC Resolution on the Middle East

• The Resolution was a part of the package of
  decisions adopted at the NPT Review and Extension
  Conference in 1995.
• NPT May 1995 resolution calls upon all states in
  the Middle East to take practical steps towards
  the establishment of an effectively verifiable
  Middle East zone free of weapons of mass
  destruction, nuclear, chemical and biological,
  and their delivery systems

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Recent Developments

• 2000 - The NPT RevCon reaffirms the goal of 1995
  ME Resolution and states that the resolution is
  valid until its goals and objectives are
  achieved.
• 2006 The WMD Commission Final Report calls for
  an intensification of international efforts to
  establish a WMDFZ in the ME.
• 2010 - The NPT RevCon endorses 5 practical steps
  to make progress towards the goal of establishing
  a WMDFZ in the ME which include convening a
  regional conference to discuss the issue in 2012
  and appointing a WMDFZ Facilitator.
• 2011 IAEA Forum on NWFZ in ME concludes to
  establish a NWFZ in ME, CBMS, break current
  stalemate, etc

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2010 NPT- Practical steps

• The UNSG and the co-sponsors of the 1995
  Resolution, in consultation with the States of
  the region, will
• convene a conference in 2012, on the
  establishment of a ME ZFNW and all other weapons
  of mass destruction. The 2012 Conference shall
  take as its terms of reference the 1995
  Resolution
• Appointment a facilitator, with a mandate to
  support implementation of the 1995 Resolution by
  conducting consultations with the States of the
  region in that regard and undertaking
  preparations for the convening of the 2012
  Conference. The facilitator will also assist in
  implementation of follow-on steps agreed by the
  participating regional States at the 2012
  Conference. The facilitator will report to the
  2015 Review Conference and its Preparatory
  Committee meetings

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2010 NPT- practical steps cont.

• (c) Designate a host Government for the 2012
  Conference
• (d) Take additional steps aimed at supporting the
  implementation of the 1995 Resolution, including
  that IAEA, the Organisation for the Prohibition
  of Chemical Weapons and other relevant
  international organizations be requested to
  prepare background documentation for the 2012
  Conference regarding modalities for a zone free
  of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass
  destruction and their delivery systems, taking
  into account work previously undertaken and
  experience gained
• (e) Take consideration of all offers aimed at
  supporting the implementation of the1995
  Resolution, including the offer of the European
  Union to host a follow-on seminar to that
  organized in June 2008.

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Preparations for 2012 Conference on a ME WMDFZ

• Conference Facilitator Jaakko Laajava,
  Under-secretary of state, Ministry of Foreign
  Affairs, Finland.
• Host country Finland
• Challenges agenda, timing, participation,
  conference outcome, possible postponement of the
  conference due to Arab spring, Iran nuclear
  programme, Israeli saber rattling and US
  Presidential election

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Issues to be addressed

• What immediate arms control steps are acceptable
  to all regional actors?  Realistically, these are
  the only ones that might emerge from the
  conference.
• What expert and working groups should be formed
  as a concrete result of the conference? 
• What wider processes might be launched at the
  proposed 2012/2013 conference?
• What can be done to prevent 2012/2013 from being
  a damaging experience?
• What WMD-related confidence-building measures
  might be considered?
• Sourcehttp//www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/MEWMDFZ_2
  6Sept_FIN.htm

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2011 Public Opinion Poll of Jewish and Arab
Citizens of Israel Conducted by Brookings Zogby
International

• By a ratio of two to one, Israelis support an
  agreement that would make the Middle East a
  nuclear weapon free zone, including Iran and
  Israel, with a system of full inspections of all
  facilities where nuclear components are built or
  stored.
• Given a choice of two options, one where both
  Israel and Iran have nuclear weapons and one
  where neither has them, 65 of Israeli Jews
  support the latter while only 19 support the
  former.

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Territory

• The 1989 IAEA Technical Study, which first took
  up the geographic delimitation of a future Middle
  East NWFZ, applied the concept to a region
  extending from Libya in the west, to Iran in the
  east, and from Syria in the north to Yemen in the
  south.
• A subsequent UN Study expanded the concept
  further by including all League of Arab states,
  plus Iran and Israel in the zone. The Arab League
  has officially endorsed the UN Study delimitation
  and Israel has raised no objection other than
  note that any country in the region should be
  publicly recognized and accepted as an integral
  part thereof. Suggestions of including
  Afghanistan, Pakistan as well as Turkey in the
  eventual zone have not gained any significant
  traction.
• Source Arms Control Association, WMD-Free Middle
  East Proposal at a Glance http//www.armscontrol.o
  rg/factsheets/mewmdfz

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• Thank you