Why do CO2, CH4, and ?T co-vary in the Vostok ice-core data (Kump et al. Figure 1-9)?

1
Why do CO2, CH4, and ?T co-vary in the Vostok
ice-core data (Kump et al. Figure 1-9)?

• Possible climate processes that could help answer
  this
• Greenhouse effect CO2/CH4 increases(decreases)
  lead to ?T increases(decreases)
• A) Ocean solubility effect on atmospheric CO2 ?T
  increase(decrease) leads to ocean
  de-gassing(uptake) of CO2 and therefore
  atmospheric CO2 increase(decrease)
• B) Clathrates (CH4 or methane-hydrates) are
  less(more) stable with increase(decrease) in ?T
• First, 1. and 2. could provide a positive
  feedback.
• Second, it is not clear which is driving which
  surface temperature driving atmospheric chemistry
  or atmospheric chemistry driving surface
  temperature!?!
• Systems approach is the best way to get a
  handle on the complex interactions in the Earths
  climate.

2
Terms and Terminology

• Dynamical Systems
• dynamical system series of interacting
  components which are coupled
• system state the complete set of attributes
  (state variables) that define the characteristics
  of the system at a particular moment in time
• coupling physical process relating two state
  variables in a dynamical system
• positive coupling the state variables are
  positively correlated. Example greenhouse
  effect, where increases/decreases in one variable
  (CO2) lead to increases/decreases in another
  (temperature)
• negative coupling the state variables are
  negatively correlated. Example planetary
  albedo (or reflectivity), where
  increases/decreases in one variable (albedo or
  reflectivity) lead to decreases/increases in
  another (temperature)
• A systems diagram shows this information
  graphically see Kump et al. Figures 2-1 and
  2-2
• feedback loop self-perpetuating mechanism of
  change and a response to that change (better to
  understand the concept than memorize a
  definition!)