Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs

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Model interoperationsCommunity models, models
as services, and model webs
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team
Meeting New York 8 May 2009
(c) 2009 California Institute of Technology.
Government sponsorship acknowledged.
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GEO Biodiversity Observation Network

• Global network
• Of interoperating biodiversity observation
  systems
• Collect, manage, analyze, share data on status of
  the worlds biodiversity

Scholes et al., Science 321 22 August 2008,
Toward a Global Biodiversity Observing System
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Focus is monitoring

• Ecosystems
• Species
• Genes
• Ecosystem services

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Primary tasks

1. Integrate existing observation systems
2. Coordinate sampling efforts
3. Fill in sampling gaps
4. Integrate and add analytical/visualization tools
5. Combine remote sensing and in situ data

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Self assessment

• Concept is all-inclusive
• Very ambitious
• Organic and opportunistic
• Long-term
• Community-driven and coordinated

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Status

• Concepts published
• Implementation approach articulated
• Detailed implementation planning underway
• Ecosystems
• Species
• Genes
• Terrestrial
• Marine
• Aquatic

Sound interesting?
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Model interoperationsCommunity models, models
as services, and model webs
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team
Meeting New York 8 May 2009
(c) 2009 California Institute of Technology.
Government sponsorship acknowledged.
8
Overview

• Ecological questions
• Greater model integration
• Community modeling
• Models as services
• Model Web

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General questions

1. What will change?
2. What will be the consequences of those changes?

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Specific examples
What areas in Burma should be targeted to protect
the critically endangered Gurney's Pitta?
How will water availability be affected, by
annual and seasonal measures? Do we need to
build more reservoirs?

• USFWS Should pika be listed as threatened /
  endangered?
• BCC What are the ecological and social
  implications of complete build-out in Boulder
  according to the existing regional zoning plan?
• USNPS Where should we burn? Will we violate AQ
  standards in the Central Valley?
• NGOs What areas in Asia should be the focus of
  conservation efforts to save the tiger and its
  habitat?
• USGEO What are the consequences of alternative
  land management practices on biological diversity
  in the context of climate change?
• NEON How do changes in the availability and
  distribution of the nations water affect
  ecological systems?
• DS How will the boreal forest shift as
  temperature and precipitation change at high
  latitudes? What will be the impacts on animal
  migration patterns and invasive species?

How will social and economic factors change
forest cover of Peruvian Amazon by 2020?
How will climate change and socioeconomic factors
affect infection rates of vector-borne diseases?
How will snowfall be affected?
How will flood risk be affected?
How much will sea level rise?
How will fire risk and intensity be affected?
What effect will various management options have
on the critical values of my park?
What do we need to do to restore the landscape of
an overgrazed African ecosystem?
How will increased development and forest
fragmentation effect the abundance of a
forest-dependent bird species?
How will urban temperatures in SF be changed?
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• How many of these questions can be easily
  answered, or explored, now?
• Can a resource manager easily get information on
  these topics?

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Limiting factors

• Science and observations
• Isolated modelslimited interoperability
• Limited sharing
• Limited access

Cultural barriers are much more limiting than
technical ones
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The need for community modeling

• More sharing / improved access
• Less reinvention
• Facilitates new science
• Enhances integrated management and decision
  support

Adapted from J Famiglietti et al 2008. CUAHSIs
efforts towards a Community Hydrologic Modeling
Platform (CHyMP) in the USA
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• Should we encourage more community ecological
  models?

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Models as services

• Service provision of a product upon request
• Service Oriented Architecture

Service request
Service Provider
Consumer
Information
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Models as (web) services

• Data provider Standard method for data sharing
• Well-known technology
• Data consumer Improved access
• To people
• To other models

Not for all models
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Models as services
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Models as services
Model web
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Benefits

• More sharing / improved access
• Less reinvention
• Facilitates new science
• Enhances integrated management and decision
  support
• Greater modeler interaction
• More users ? more feedback ? faster improvement

Web 2.0
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Web 2.0

• Web 2.0
• Collaboration
• Communities
• Interactivity, feedback
• Collective intelligence
• Web 3.0?
• Semantic Web ? Model Web

Community models
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Summary

• Need more model interoperability
• Community modeling
• Models as services
• Room for Web 2.0
• Longer term model web?
• Think big, start small, start soon

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