Two Theories about Congress

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Two Theories about Congress

• In Congress, Pork Stays on Menu (Washington Post
  headline)
• Can Congress pass legislation that is in the
  public interest?
• Fiorina purposive theories
• Bessette- serious lawmakers

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What skills or attributes do we want in a
President?
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The Impossible Presidency?

• We want presidents who are
• Powerful, but we place limits on power
• Kind and caring/ruthless and cunning
• Common person/ Hero or visionary
• Above politics/master politician
• Unify nation/make tough decisions
• Have vision thing/responsive to will of people

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President- Great Expectations

• Economy
• World peace
• Education
• Environment
• Health care
• Morality
• Heating oil prices
• Vision thing

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Many Roles for President

• Chief of State
• Manager of the Economy
• Chief Executive
• Commander-in-Chief
• Chief Diplomat
• Chief Legislator
• Chief of the Party
• World Leader

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Presidential Power

• Empirical Question
• How powerful is the president?
• Normative Question
• How powerful should the president be?

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Methods of Presidential Candidate Selection

• Caucus System (1789 -1830s)
• National Convention (since 1830s)
• Primary Elections (Present)
• Frontloading

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Implications of Primaries

• Weakens gatekeeper role for parties (Buchanan,
  Forbes, Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson)
• Gives power to ideological activists
• Different type of candidate running (McCain)
• Diminish electability (Gays in military, Private
  school in SC)
• Hurt governability (read my lips)
• popular mandate from people, not Party
• New Democrat, compassionate conservative

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National Elections

• Electoral College
• Election strategy
• Partisan Lock
• Disenfranchisement
• False mandates
• Clinton in 1992 43 of vote, 68.8 of EC
• Chance of a Misfire?

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1968
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1972
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1976
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1980
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1988
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1992
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1996
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2000 Battleground States
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Presidential Elections

• Long
• Expensive
• Discourages good candidates?
• Potential source of Power?
• Predictions for 2000

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Constitutional Basics

• Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Engergy in
  the Executive
• one person office
• elected for a fixed term
• national constituency
• Vague formal powers from Constitution

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Evolution of the Presidency

• 1800-1933 Period of Congressional Supremacy
• Main federal policies were very individualized or
  particularistic
• E.g. -roads or canals, tariffs for particular
  industries
• President is chief clerk

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The Modern Presidency

• Great Depression, 38 unemployment
• More interventionist role for government
• Entitlement programs like SS, farm supports,
  right to organize create
• Political constituency for Pres power
• Organizational basis for Pres power
• MediaDirect link betw Pres and people

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Hallmarks of the Modern Presidency

• Increased Popular Linkage with Public
• Going Public
• Presidential Selection
• Increased institutional powers
• Creation of Institutional Presidency
• War-making

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Presidential Approval

• Going Public Strategy
• Gallup Poll since 1948
• Do you approve or disapprove of the way ___ is
  handling his job as president
• Why the Framers would be horrified

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Public Approval of President

• Honeymoon
• General decline
• Economy
• Rally events and scandals
• Beyond Presidential Control

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Does Popularity?Success?

• Eisenhower and Bush popular presidents
• Nixon and Ford unpopular presidents
• Clintons uneven record
• Truman, A man who is influenced by the polls or
  is afraid to make decision which may make him
  unpopular is not a man to represent the welfare
  of the country

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Institutional Presidency

• Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants
• Brownlow Committee
• The president needs help
• President not Congress should be in charge of
  executive branch

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Implications of Instit. Pres

• Radical change in system of government?
• Increased presidential control of policy making
  and centralization of the decision making
• Increases potential for screw ups
• Iran Contra
• Reduced accountability

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Ranking Post WW II Presidents

• Good/Great
• Truman
• Eisenhower
• JFK
• LBJ
• Reagan
• Clinton

• Bad/Failures
• Nixon
• Ford
• Carter
• Bush

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Worlds Greatest Clerkship

• Neustadt, 1960 Presidential Power
• power of president do not flow from literary
  reading of constitution
• "The conditions that promote his leadership in
  form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in
  fact."
• presidential power is power to persuade

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Informal Powers

• Professional reputation
• Electoral results
• Bargaining
• Carrot and the stick
• Marshalling public opinion (going public)

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Presidential War-making

• Madison-- the power to declare war is fully and
  exclusively vested in the legislature
• Congress- declare war
• Pres C-in C
• Two Presidencies Thesis
• War Powers Resolution

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Presidential Power- 2 views

• It is not only the presidents "right, but his
  duty to do anything that the needs of the nation
  demanded unless such action was forbidden by the
  Congress." T. Roosevelt
• "The President may assume just about as much
  power as he is capable of handling." JFK
• The president can exercise no power which cannot
  be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific
  grant of power .. either in the federal
  constitution or in an act of Congress. There is
  no undefined residuum of power which he can
  exercise because it seems to him to be in the
  public interest. William Taft 1916.

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Normative Question

• FDR, JFK, Savior model- 1950s and 60s
• LBJ, Nixon Satan model, or Imperial Presidency
• Ford, Carter Sampson model
• Reagan partisan presidency
• Neustadt vs. Miroff

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Barber on Presidential Character

• Voters should ask 2 questions
• 1. How much energy does the president invest in
  his presidency
• 2. Relatively speaking, does he seem to
  experience his political life as happy or sad

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Limits of Barbers theory

• No basis in psychology or Personality theory
• Easy to apply? Arent all candidates energetic?
• Healthy political personality is no predictor of
  political success
• Book of the Week
• David Maraniss First in His Class