Title: ????????????? ???????? VaR (CC-VaR) ?? ?????????? ??????
1????????? ?.?.
- ????????????? ???????? VaR (CC-VaR)??
?????????? ?????? - ????? I
?????????????? ????? ???
2????????????? ???????? VaR (CC-VaR)
- ??????????????? ????????????? (?.?. ????? ???? ?
????? ????????? ??????? ????????? ? ????????)
?????????? ????? ? ???????????? ??????? ???????
(?????????? ?????). ??? ???? ? ????? ???????
???????? ????????? ????????? ?, ???????????
???????? x?X??. - ???????? ??????????????? ???????????????,
????????? ???????????? ? ??????????? ????????
???????? ???????????? (?.?.?.) ?(e), e?0,1,
???????????? ??? ?????????? ? ?????. ?????? ?(e)
e?, e?0,1, ?gt0, ??? ???? ??????? ????????
????????? ? ???????? ??????? ?????????? ?????????
???? ?? ???? ???? ?????????? ??????? ??????????. - ????????????? ???????? VaR (CC-VaR) ???????,
????? ??? ???????? ?????????????? ????? S
????????? ????? q, ??????????? ?????????? ??
????????? ?? ????? ???????????? (???????????)
?????????, ???????????? ????????????
Pq ? ?(e) ? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1, ??? PM
??????????? ????????? M (?????????????
??????????? ?????????? ??????? ?????????). ?
????? ? ???? ????????? ????? ???????????????
???????????? ?????? ? ???????????? ?.?. ?????? q
??? ?????????? ???? ?????????? CC-VaR.
3????? d-???????????? (d-?????)
- ????????????? ??????? ??? ????????????? ????? ?
?????????? ??????? ??????? - ???????? ?????????????? ??????????? ????? ??????
?????? ????????????? ??????? ? n ???????
i?I1,2,,n. ??????????? ????????? ?????? ?
i-? ????? ? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? pi,
?i?Ipi 1. ??????? ????? ????????? ????????,
??????????? ???????? i ? ????????????? pi, i?I,
??????????????. - ???????? ???????????? Ui ?????? ?????? ?? i-?
?????, i?I, ?????????? ????????? ????? ???
????????? ?????? ? ????????? ?????, ? ??????? ?
????????? ???????. ????????? ??????? ???????????
Ui ??????????? ???????? 0,,1,,0 ? ????????
?? i-? ?????. ??? ????????? ci ??????
??????????? ?????? ?? i-? ????? ????????????
?????? "??????" (? ????????????, ? ??? ?????
??????, ?????? ci 1/n). - ?? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ? ???????????????
??????. ??? ???? ???????????? ?????? ??????? g
g1, , gn ??????????? ????????? ????????
???????????? G ?i?IgiUi. ?? ????? ????????????
????? ? ??????????? ?????, ????????? ?????
???????? ???????????? U. ????? ????? U ?i?IUi.
4????? d-???????????? (d-?????)
5????? d-???????????? (d-?????)
- ?????????? ????????? ? ????????? ??????? ?-?????
- ????????? ???????? ?-??????????? ??? ????????
Ssh/2, sh/2, s?X, ?????? ???????? ??????????
?????????? ?????DS HS. ??????? ????????
??????? (?????????) ?-????? - ????????? ???????? ?-???????????? ????????
?????????? (??? ?????? ?????? ???????? ????????
sh, s, sh) ? ?????? (??? ???? ??? ???????
????????, ???????? ??? ????? ? ????? ???
??????), ????????????? ???????? ?? h.
6???????? ???????????
- ???????? ???????? ??? CC-VaR. X?? P?, p(x)
C?, c(x). ?????? ?????????????? ????? Sgt0 ?
?(e) (?0), e?0,1, ?.?.?., ????????, ?????????
?? S. ?????? ????????, ???????????? max EPq ???
??????? Pq ? ?(e) ? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. - ????????? ???????-???????. ???????? ?(x)
p(x)/c(x) ?.?.?. ? Z Z(t), t?0
x?Z(t) ? ?(x)?t f(t)PZ(t). Z ???????????
????????? ?? t, ??????? f(t) ???????????, 0?
f(t) ?1 ? f(?)1. Def. Xe Xe?X ? Xe?Z,
e?0,1, PXee. - ????? 1 (????????????? ?????????
???????-???????). ????? ????????????? ???????
f(t) ???????? ?????????? (a) f(t)?1 ??? t?? (b)
f(t) ?????????? ? f(0) 0 (c) f(t) ??????
??????????. ????? ??? ?????? e?0,1 ????????? Xe
?????????? ? ???????????, ? ???? ?(e) CXe
??????????? ?? ???? Y?X ? PY e. (??????? (c),
???????, ?? ???????? ????????????.) - ????? 2. ??????? ?(e) CXe, e?0,1, ???????.
- T - ???????? ???????????? ?.?.?. ?(x) ? ???????
???????????, TXe e (?0,1), ??? ?????????
??????? ???????????? w(x) w(x) e ? x?Ge
lime'?e Xe'\Xe. T1 ???????? ????????, ???
?????????, ?????? ??????, ???????????? ???????
w?(e).
7???????? ???????????
?(?)
1
?
0
1
- ??????????? ? ?????? 1 ? 2.
- ?????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ?(e) CX?,
e?0,1.
8???????? ???????????
- X?? P?, p(x) C?, c(x) ?(x) p(x)/c(x)
?.?.?. e?0,1. - ?????????? ? ????????? ???????-???????
- ????????????? (a) ??????????, ????
lim???f(t)qlt1. ?????, ???? M x c(x)0
p(x)gt0, ?? qPMgt0, CM0 ??? ???? ?(x) 8,
x?M, ? ?(e) 1 ? e?q,1. - ????????????? (b) ??????????, ???? f(t) ?????
?????? p PZ'(t) gt 0, ??? Z'(t) x
?(x) t Z(t) Z(t0). ??? ???? f(t)
PZ(t), f(t0) PZ(t0) f(t) p. ?????
????, X?' Z(t0), X?? Z(t), e'lte?. ???
e?(e',e?) ????????? X? ? PX? e ? ????
????????? ?(x) const, x?Z'(t), ????????????
???????????? ? ?? ????? ?????????????
???????????. ?????? ??? t0, f(0)? f(0), ?????
????????, ??? ?(0) CLgt0, PL0, ??? L x
p(x)0 c(x)gt0, ??? ???? ?(x) 0, x?L. - ????????????? (c) ??????????, ???? f(t) const,
t?t1,t2, ?.?. ?(x) ????? ???? ?? ???? ??????,
????? ??? ????? ????????? X. ???, ?????????,
P?(x)?t1,t20 ? 0ltP?(x)?t1lt1. ? ???? ??????
f?(e) ? ?'(e) ????? ??????, ? ?(e) ?????. - ??. ????? "??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR.
???????????? ??????? ?(x)"
9???????? ???????????
- ??????????? ? ?????????? ????????????? ????? 1.
- ?????? ??????? ?(e) CX?, e?0,1.
10???????? ???????????
- X?? P?, p(x) C?, c(x) ?(x)p(x)/c(x)
?.?.?. - ???????? ????????????? ??????????
- ????? 3. ??? ??????? ???????????? w(x) ? ???????
??????? ?(e) ??????????? ??????????? - (i) w(x) f(?(x)) Pu?(u)?(x)
FP?(?)(?(x)), x?X - (ii) ?(e) Cu?(u)f?(e) FC?(?)(f?(e))
FC?(?)(FP?(?)?(e)), e?0,1. - ??????? 4. ????????? ???????? w(?) ??????????
???????????? ?? ??????? 0,1. - ??????? 5. ??? ????????? ????????
q g(?) ?(w(?)), ??? ?(e), e?0,1,
???????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ?
??????????? ???????, ??????????? ??????????? - (i) FPq(z) ??(z), z??(0), ?(1))
- (ii) Pq ?(e) 1 e, e?0,1.
11???????? ???????????
- ????? 6. ?????? q ?? ???????? G
b?X?(w(x))D(x)dx, bgt0, ??? ???? e?0,1
????????????? ?????????? Pq b?(e) 1 e. - ??????? 7. (???????? ???????? ??????? ?(e)). ?
?????? ????????????? ??????? f?(e) ???????????
??????????? ?'(e) 1/f?(e), e?0,1. - ????? 8. ????? c' Cc(x)gt0, p(x)0,
p' Pc(x)0, p(x)gt0. ????? ??????? ???????
?(e) - (i) ????? ?????? ? ???? ???????? c',
- (ii) ????????? ?????????? ????????, ??????
???????, ?? ??????? 1p', 1 ????? p', - (iii) ?????? ?????????? ? ??????? ?? ?????????
(0, 1p'), - (iv) ????? ?????, ? ?? ??????????? ??????, ????
??????? f?(e) ????? ?????? (f(t) ???????
???????????). - ??. ????? "??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR.
???????????? ??????? ?(x)"
12???????? ???????????
- ???????? ???????? (??? ??????????? ???????? ?
??????????? ?????????????? ??????)
13???????????????? ???????? VaR
- ????? ?00, ?n11, ?00. ?????? n ???????
??????????? ?i ?(0,1), ?i1 lt ?i, i?I 1,,n,
? n ??????? ?????? ?igt0, ?i1 lt ?i, i?I.
???????????????? C-VaR ??????? ??????????
?????????? Pq ? ?i ? 1?i ????? ??? ???? i?I.
???????????? ???????? VaR ???????????????
?????????? ???????? n 1. ???????? - A ?i?I ?i(?i1 ?i).
- ??????? 2. ??????????? ? ???????????? ?
?????????? ???????-??????? ????????? X Xi,
i?I, ????? ??? PXi ?i, i?I, ? ?????? ?
???????????????? ????????? VaR ?????????? ???????
????? A. - ??????????????. ?????????? ????? ???? ?????????
Y Yi, i?I ?????, ??? PYi PXi ?i, i?I.
??????? ?i C(Yi), i?I, ?n1 1. ? ???? ????? 1
??????????? ??????????? ?i ? ?i, i?I. ?????????
????? AY ??????????? A ????? ??? Y, ?????
14????????????? ???????? VaR
- ?????? ????????? ???????????? ?.?.?. ?????????
?(e)?0, ?(0)0. ???????? - ??????? 3. ??????????? ? ???????????? ?
?????????? ???????-??????? ?????????
X X?, e?0,1 ?????????? ??????? A. - ??????????????. ?????????? ???? ?????????????
????????? Y Y?, e?0,1, ????? ???
PY? PX? e ??? ???? e?0,1. ?????
???????, ??? ?(e) CY? ??????? ?
???????????? ?????????, ????? ????, ?(0) 0,
?(1) 1. ?? ????? 1 ??? ???? e?0,1 ???????????
??????????? ?(e) ? ?(e). ????????? ????? AY
??????????? A ???????? ??? Y, ?????
15?????? ??? CC-VaR
- ?????? DO (?????????? ???????????????). ??????
?????????????? ????? S gt 0, ??????? ???????????
e?(0,1) ? ??????? ???????????? ?????? ?gt0. ??????
???????? G, ???????????? max Eq ??? ??????? Pq
? ? ? 1e. - ?????? DM (?????????? ????????????????). ??????
?????????????? ????? S (gt 0), n ???????
??????????? ei?(0,1), ei1lt ei, e00, ? n ???????
?????? ?igt0, ?i1lt ?i, ?00, i?I 1,,n.
?????? ???????? G, ???????????? max Eq ???
??????? Pq ? ?i ? 1ei ??? ???? i?I. - ?????? CO (????????????? ????????, ????????????
?? ?????, ?? ???????? ?? ????). ??????
?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?. ?(e)?0,
?(0)0. ?????? ????????, ???????????? max Eq ???
??????? Pq ? ?(e) ? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. - ?????? CH (????????????? ??????????). ??????
?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?. ? ????
b?(e), ??? b ?????????????? ????????. ??????
?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ????????? b,
???????????? max Eq ??? ??????? Pq ? ?(e) ? 1e
??? ???? e?0,1. ???????? b ????????? ?? ???????
S bA. - ?????? CB (????????????? ???????).
?????????????? ????? S (gt0) ?? ????????, ?(e)
(?0) ?.?.?. ?????????. ?????? ??????????
????????, ???????????? min S ??? ???????
Pq ? ?(e) ? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. - ?????? CG (????????????? ????????????). ??????
?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?. ? ????
?(b,e), ??? b ?????????????? ????????. ??????
?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ????????? b,
???????????? max Eq ??? ??????? Pq ? ?(e) ? 1e
??? ???? e?0,1. ???????? b ????????? ?? ???????
S A(b) ? ?????????????, ??? A(b) ?????????
???????????? ???????. - ?????? CHY (CH ??? ?????????????? ??????). ??????
?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?., ???????
??? b?(e) ??? b ???????????? ????????. ??????
?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ????????? b,
???????????? max Er ??? ??????? Pr ? b?(e)
? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. ???????? b ????????? ??
??????? S bA?. - ?????? CGY (CG ??? ?????????????? ??????). ??????
?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?., ???????
??? ?(be), ??? b ???????????? ????????. ??????
?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ????????? b,
???????????? max Er ??? ??????? Pr ? ?(be)
? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. ???????? b ????????? ??
??????? S A?(b) ? ?????????????, ??? A?(b)
????????? ???????????? ???????.
16?????? DO (?????????? ???????????????)
- ?????? ?????????????? ????? S gt 0, ???????
??????????? e?(0,1) ? ??????? ???????????? ??????
?gt0. ?????? ???????? G, ???????????? max Eq ???
??????? Pq ? ? ? 1 e.
??????? A ?????????????? ??????????
???????-???????
17?????? DM (?????????? ????????????????)
- ?????? ?????????????? ????? S (gt 0), n ???????
??????????? ei ?(0,1), ei1lt ei, e00, ? n
??????? ?????? ?igt0, ?i1lt ?i, ?00, i?I
1,,n. ?????? ???????? G, ???????????? max Eq
??? ??????? Pq ? ?i ? 1ei ??? ???? i?I.
??????? A ?????????????? ???????? 2
18?????? C (?????????????)
- ?????? ?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?.
????????? ?(e)?0, ?(0)0. ?????? ????????,
???????????? max Eq ??? ??????? Pq ? ?(e) ? 1e
??? ???? e?0,1.
??????? A ?????????????? ???????? 3
19?????? CH (????????????? ??????????)
- ?????? ?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?. ?
???? b?(e), ??? b ?????????????? ????????.
?????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????????
b, ???????????? max Eq ??? ??????? Pq ? ?(e)
? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. - ???????? b ????????? ?? ??????? S bA.
20?????? CB (????????????? ???????)
- ?????????????? ????? S (gt0) ?? ????????, ?(e)
(?0) ?.?.?. ?????????. ?????? ??????????
????????, ???????????? min S ??? ???????
Pq ? ?(e) ? 1? ??? ???? e?0,1.
21?????? CG (????????????? ????????????)
- ?????? ?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?. ?
???? ?(b,e), ??? b ?????????????? ????????.
?????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????????
b, ???????????? max Eq ??? ??????? Pq ? ?(e)
? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. - ???????? b ????????? ?? ??????? S A(b) ?
?????????????, ??? A(b) ????????? ????????????
???????.
22?????? CHY (CH ??? ?????????????? ??????)
- ?????? ?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?.,
??????? ??? b?(e) ??? b ???????????? ????????.
?????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????????
b, ???????????? max Er ??? ??????? Pr ? b?(e)
? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. - ???????? b ????????? ?? ??????? S bA?
23?????? CGY (CG ??? ?????????????? ??????)
- ?????? ?????????????? ????? S (gt 0) ? ?.?.?.,
??????? ??? ?(be), ??? b ???????????? ????????.
?????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????????
b, ???????????? max Er ??? ??????? Pr ? ?(be)
? 1e ??? ???? e?0,1. - ???????? b ????????? ?? ??????? S A?(b) ?
?????????????, ??? A?(b) ????????? ????????????
???????.
24??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ??????????
??????? ?(x)
- X a,b), T ???????? ???????????? X? ? e,
e?0,1. ???????? ?????? CB. - ?????? 1. p(x) ? 1/(ba), x?X, ??????? c(x)
?????? ??????? ?? X, ??? ??? ??????? ?(x) ??????
?????????? ?? X. - ????? Xe a,u(e).
- T1 ? u(e) Pa, u(e) e ? u(e) a
e(ba) e-???????? ????????????? P?
w(e) u(e) ??????????? ??????? - T ? u(1)(x) (xa)/(ba) w(x).
25??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ??????????
??????? ?(x)
- X a,b), U 0,1, T ???????? ????????????
?? X, T X?U, T1 U?X. ???????? ?????? CB. - ?????? 3. p(x) ? c(x) ???????????? ?????????
????????? ?? X, ????? ??? ??????? ?(x) ??????
?????????? ?? X. - ????? ????? Xe a,u(e).
- T1 ? u(e) Pa, u(e) e, u(e) e-????????
????????????? P? T1 ??????????? ????????
T ? u(1)(x).
26??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- X a,b), T ???????? ???????????? X? ? e,
e?0,1. ???????? ?????? CB. - ?????? 7. p(x), c(x) ????????? ?? X, ????? ???
??????? ?(x) ?????? ?????????? ?? X1 a, m) ?
?????? ??????? ?? X2 m, b), a lt m lt b, ?(a)
?(b), m ?? ????. ??????? u1(e)?X1 ? u2(e)?X2
Pa,u1(e) Pu2(e),b e (?.?. Xe
a,u1(e)?u2(e),b), ?(u1(e)) ?(u2(e))
(?????????????? ?(x1)?(x2)?, x1u1(e),
x2u2(e)). - T1 ? u1(e), u2(e) T ? u1?(x), x?X1
u2?(x), x?X2 w(x).
27??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- ?????? 7'. X1,1), c(x)1/2, M11,m), M2m,1)
28??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- ???. (? ??????? 7'). ??????? ?????????
??????????? p(x) (?????) ? ??????? ????????????
w(x) (??????) ??? m 1/3 ?(x) 2p(x)
29??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- ?????? 7?. X1,1), p(x)1/2, M11,m), M2m,1)
30??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- ? ??????? 7?. ??????? ??????? ????????? c(x)
(?????) ? - ??????? ???????????? w(x) (??????) ??? m 1/3
- ?(x) a(1 w(x)), a ln(2)
31??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- X a,b), U 0,1, T ???????? ????????????
?? X, T X?U, T1 U?X. ???????? ?????? CB. - ?????? 9. ??????? ?(x) ?????????? ?? X1 a, m)
? ??????? ?? X2 m, b), alta'ltmltb,
?(a)lt?(a')?(b), m ?? ????. ??????? u1(e)?X1,
u2(e)?X2 ???? elte', e'Pa,a', ??
Pa,u1(e)e ???? egte', ?? Pa',u1(e)Pu2(
e),bee', ?(u1(e)) ?(u2(e)). - T1 ? u1(e), u2(e) T ? u1?(x), x?X1
u2?(x), x?X2 w(x)
32??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- ?????? 9'. X1,1), p(x)1/2, M11,m), M2m,1)
33??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- ? ??????? 9'. ??????? ????????????? ??????? ?(x)
(?????) ? ??????? ????????? c(x) (??????) ??? m
1/2
34??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x)
- ?????? 9'. ??????? ??????? w(x) (?????) ? A(ß)
(??????)
35??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ?????????????
??????? ?(x) (??????)
- X a,b), U 0,1, T ???????? ????????????
?? X, T X?U, T1 U?X. ???????? ?????? CB. - ?????? 13. ??????? ?(x) ?? X ????? n ?????????
??????????? ????? ??? ? ??????? ????? ???????
?(a) ? ?(b) ?????????? ??????, ???????????? ???
???????, ? ???????????? ?? ????? n1
?????????????? ??????. - ?????? ????? ????????????? ?????????? ???????
??????? ?(x), ?????????? ?? ?????? ??? ??????.
??????????? ?????????? ?? ???????. ??? ????
??????????? ??????????? Xij yij,zij), ???
i?I ????? ??????, ??????? ?????, j?Ji ?????
??????? ???????????? ?????? i-? ??????, ?ijXij
X ????? ???????? ???????????? sij, ?????? 1,
???? ?(x) ?? Xij ??????????, ? 1, ????
???????. - T1 ? uij(e), j?Ji, e?ei1,ei), i?I
(??????????? ei ??. ????) - T ? uij(1)(x), x?Xij i?I, j?Ji.
36??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ?????????????
??????? ?(x) (???????????)
- I 1,2,3, J1 1,2,
J2 1,2,3, J3 1, y11 x2, z11 x3,
s11 1 y12 x3, z12 x4, s12 1 y21 a,
z21 x1, s21 1 y22 x1, z22 x2, s22 1
y23 x4, z23 x5, s23 1 y31 x5, z31 b,
s31 1.
?????? ??????? ?(x) ? ??????????? ?? ?????? ?
???????
37??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ?????????????
??????? ?(x) (?????????)
- ??????? ????? ? ??? ????????? ???????????? ?(x),
?? ??? ?? ???????????. - ??????????? ????????? ?? ?????? ??????? ?(x) ?
???????? ?????? ???????.
38??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x) 1
- X 0,1), U 0,1, T ???????? ????????????
?? X, T X?U, T1 U?X. ???????? ?????? CB. - ?????? 14. p(x) 0, 1, 2 ??? x?X1 0,?),
X2 ?,?), X3 ?,1) ??????????????,
c(x) 2, 1, 0 ??? x?X1, X2, X3 ??????????????,
?????? ?(x) 0, 1, 8 ??? x?X1, X2, X3
??????????????. T ????????? X1 ? U1 0 ?
PX1 0, CX1 ?, X2 ? U2 (0, ?) ?
PX2 ?, CX2 ?, X3 ? U3 ?,1) ? PX3 ?,
CX3 0. - T u1(1)(0) 0, x?X1 u2(1)(x) x?, x?X2
u3(1)(x) 2x1, x?X3. - T1 u1(0) X1, e?U1 u2(e) ?e, e?U2
u3(e) ½e/2, e?U3. - ?(0) C0 ? ?(e) ?e, e?U2
?(e) 1, e?U3 - ?'(0) 8 ?'(e) 1, e?U2 ?'(e) 0, e?U3.
- g(x) ?(0), x?X1 g(x) ?(x?), x?X2
g(x) ?(?2(x?)), x?X3.
39??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x) 2
- X a,b), U 0,1, T ???????? ????????????
?? X, T X?U, T1 U?X. ???????? ?????? CB (?
????????? ????????? ??????). - ?????? 15. p(x)?Ra,b) c(x) ?i?I ci?(xai),
ai?X, ?i?I ci 1, i?I Mai, i?I. ?????
?(x)0, x?M ?(x)?, x?X\M. ???????? T ?????????
X1M ? U10, X2X\M ? U2(0,1) ?????
PX10, CX11, PX21, CX20. - T u1(1)(x) 0, x?X1 u2(1)(x) (xa)/(ba),
x?X2, ????????? ? ???? ???????? ??????? ???????,
?? ?????? ????? ???????. - T1 u1(0) X1, e?U1 u2(e) e, e?U2.
- ?(e) CX1 1, e0 1, e?0 ?'(e) ?,
e0 0, e ?0. - g(x) ?(0), x?X1 ?((xa)/(ba)), x?X2.
40??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR ????????????
??????? ?(x) 3
- X a,b), U 0,1, T ???????? ????????????
?? X, T X?U, T1 U?X. ???????? ?????? CB (?
?????????? ????????? ???????????). - ?????? 16. p(x) ?i?I pi ?(xai), ai?X, ?i?I pi
1, i?I M ai, i?I c(x)?Ra,b. ?????
?(x)0, x?X\M ?(x)?, x?M. ???????? T ?????????
X0X\M ? U0 0, Xi ai ? Ui (di1,di, di
?j?i pj, i?I, d0 0 ????? PX00, CX01,
PXipi, CXi0, i?I. (??? ???? ????????? ?????
???????????? ????????? ????????? I.) - T u0(1)(x) 0, x?X0 ui(1)(x) di, xai,
i?I. - T1 u0(0) X1, e?U0 ui(e) ai, e?Ui. (????
???????? ?? ????????? ? ???????? ??
?????????????????? ?????????? ???????????!) - ?(e) CX1 1, e0 1, e?0 ?'(e) ?,
e0 0, e?0. - g(x) ?(0), x?X1 ?(di), xai, i?I. ???????
????????? ?????? ? ???. 1 ?????????? (?????
???????????? ?????????? ?????? ? ???????
'????????? ?????'). ???????? ?????? ???????
41????????????? ????? ????????
- C'(s) ? C?(s) "?????? ???????????" ? "??????
???????????" ?????????? ????? ??????????????
(??????????? ?? ??????? s) - C'(s) lim??0(C(s?)C(s))/?,
- C?(s) lim??0(C(s?)2C(s)C(s?))/?2.
- ?????????? ???????? P'(s) ? P?(s), s??.
42????????????? ????? ????????
- P'(s) ? P?(s) "?????? ???????????" ? "??????
???????????" ?????????? ???? ??????????????
(??????????? ?? ??????? s??) - P'(s) lim??0(P(s?)P(s))/?,
- P?(s) lim??0(P(s?)2P(s)P(s?))/?2.
- "????????????" ????????? ????????????? ?????
???????????? ??? s??, ???? ??? slt? (????.
?????), "??????????????" ????????
43????????????? ????? ????????
44????????????? ????? ????????
- ????????? ???????? ????? ??????????
45????????????? ????? ????????
- ????????? ???????? ????? ??????????
46????????????? ????? ????????
- ????????? ???????? ????? ??????????
47????????????? ????? ????????
- ????????? ???????? ????? ??????????
48????????????? ????? ????????
49????????????? ????? ????????
- ????????? ???????? ??????????? ?????????
50????????????? ????? ????????
- ????????? ???????? ??????????? ?????????
51????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?) ?0. (1) ?lt?
(vol selling) (2) ?gt? (vol buying).
52????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?) ?0. (1) ?lt?
(vol selling) (2) ?gt? (vol buying).
53????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?) ?0.(1) ?lt?
(vol selling) (2) ?gt? (vol buying). - (2) ????????? ??????? g(x) ? ???. x 0 ???????
?? ???????? ? ? ??? ? lt 1 ??? ????? ???????????
???? "??????" ? ??????? ?? ????????? ?.
???????????? ?????? ? ????????? ?????????? ?
??? ? 1 ??? ????? ????? ? ? ??????? ???????
?????????? ????????? ??????? ?????????
?????????? ? ??? ? gt 1 ??? ??????? (g'(0)0) ?
?????? ?????? ?? ????????? ??????? ??????? (???
???????????? ?????????? ???????? ? ?????????
????????? ? ????? ???????????? ?????????
????????).
54????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?), ?0. (3) ??0,
?lt?(1). (4) ??0, ??(1) (??. ???)
55????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?), ?0. (3) ??0,
?lt?(1). (4) ??0, ??(1) (??. ???)
56????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?), ?0. (3) ??0,
?lt?(1). (4) ??0, ??(1) (??. ???)
57????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?), ?0. (3) ??0,
?lt?(1). (4) ??0, ??(1) (??. ???)
58????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2). ?(?)??
Exp(?,?) ½exp(x?/?)/?, x??,
p(x)Exp(?,?), c(x)Exp(?,?), ?0. (3) ??0,
?lt?(1). (4) ??0, ?(?1) (??. ???)
59????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 2 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
P(k,?) ?k?x1? xgtk, ?gt1. p(x)P(k,?),
c(x)P(k,?).(1) ?lt? (bull game) (2) ?gt? (bear
game). - ?????? 3 (?????????????? ?????????????).
?(?)?? HN(?) 2?exp(x2?2/?)/? ?,xgt0.
p(x)HN(?), c(x)HN(?).(1) ? lt ? (bull game)
(2) ? gt ? (bear game). - ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
N(?,?)exp((x-?)2/2/?2)/(2??2)1/2
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?), x??. - ?????? 5 (????????????? ?????????????). L(?,?)
?1exp((x?)/?)/ (1exp((x?)/?))2, x,???,
??? p(x)L(?,?), c(x)L(?,?), ?,?gt0.(1) ? ?,
? gt ?. (2) ? ?, ? lt ?. (3) ? lt ?. (4) ? gt ?. - ?????? 6 (?-?????????????). G(?,?)
x?1exp(x/?)/(???(?)), ?,?gt0, x?? p(x)G(?,?),
c(x)G(?,?), ?,?,?,?gt0. (0) ? ? ? gt ?, ? lt
?. (1) ? ?, ? ?. (2) ? ?, ? ?. (3) ? lt
?, ? gt ?. (4) ? gt ?, ? lt ?. - ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)LN(?,?). (1,2) ? ? (3,4) ? ?. (5,6) ?
? ?, ? ? ?. - ?????? 8 (????-?????????????). ?(?)?? Be(?,?)
x?-1(1-x)?-1/B(?,?) ?,?gt0 B(?,?)?(?)?(?)/?(??)
. p(x)Be(?,?), c(x)Be(?,?).(1) bull
game (2) bear game (3) vol buying (4) vol
selling
60????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 2 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
P(k,?) ?k?x1? xgtk, ?gt1. p(x)P(k,?),
c(x)P(k,?).(1) ?lt? (bull game) (2) ?gt? (bear
game).
61????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 2 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
P(k,?) ?k?x1? xgtk, ?gt1. p(x)P(k,?),
c(x)P(k,?).(1) ?lt? (bull game) (2) ?gt? (bear
game).
62????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 3 (?????????????? ?????????????).
?(?)?? HN(?) 2?exp(x2?2/?)/? ?,xgt0.
p(x)HN(?), c(x)HN(?).(1) ? lt ? (bull game)
(2) ? gt ? (bear game).
63????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 3 (?????????????? ?????????????).
?(?)?? HN(?) 2?exp(x2?2/?)/? T,xgt0.
p(x)HN(?), c(x)HN(?).(1) ? lt ? (bull game)
(2) ? gt ? (bear game).
64????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
N(?,?)exp((x-?)2/2/?2)/(2??2)1/2
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?), x??.
65????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
N(?,?)exp((x-?)2/2/?2)/(2??2)1/2
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?), x??.(1) ?gt?
(bull game) (2) ?lt? (bear game).
66????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
N(?,?)exp((x-?)2/2/?2)/(2??2)1/2
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?), x??.(1) ?gt?
(bull game) (2) ?lt? (bear game).
67????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)?? N(?,?)
exp((x-?)2/ /(2?2))/(2??2)1/2, x??
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?) ?0. (3)
?gt? (vol buying) (4) ?lt? (vol selling).
68????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)?? N(?,?)
exp((x-?)2/ /(2?2))/(2??2)1/2, x??
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?) ?0. (3)
?gt? (vol buying) (4) ?lt? (vol selling).
69????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
N(?,?) exp((x-?)2/ /(2?2))/(2??2)1/2, x??
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?) (????? ??????). (5)
?gt? (vol buying) (6) ?lt? (vol selling).
70????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 4 (????????????? ??????). ?(?)??
N(?,?) exp((x-?)2/ /(2?2))/(2??2)1/2, x??
p(x)N(?,?), c(x)N(?,?) (????? ??????). (5)
?gt? (vol buying) (6) ?lt? (vol selling).
71????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 5 (????????????? ?????????????). L(?,?)
?1exp((x?)/?)/ (1exp((x?)/?))2, x,???,
??? p(x)L(?,?), c(x)L(?,?), ?,?gt0.(1) ? ?,
? gt ?. (2) ? ?, ? lt ?. (3) ? lt ?. (4) ? gt ?.
72????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 5 (????????????? ?????????????). L(?,?)
?1exp((x?)/?)/ (1exp((x?)/?))2, x,???,
??? p(x)L(?,?), c(x)L(?,?), ?,?gt0.(1) ? ?,
? gt ?. (2) ? ?, ? lt ?. (3) ? gt ?. (4) ? lt ?.
73????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 5 (????????????? ?????????????). L(?,?)
?1exp((x?)/?)/ (1exp((x?)/?))2, x,???,
??? p(x)L(?,?), c(x)L(?,?), ?,?gt0. (1) ? ?,
? gt ? (bull game) (2) ? ?, ? lt ? (bear game).
74????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 5 (????????????? ?????????????). L(?,?)
?1exp((x?)/?)/ (1exp((x?)/?))2, x,???,
??? p(x)L(?,?), c(x)L(?,?), ?,?gt0.(3) ? gt ?
(vol buying) (4) ? lt ? (vol selling).
75????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 5 (????????????? ?????????????). L(?,?)
?1exp((x?)/?)/ (1exp((x?)/?))2, x,???,
??? p(x)L(?,?), c(x)L(?,?), ?,?gt0. (3) ? gt ?
(vol buying) (4) ? lt ? (vol selling).
76????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 6 (?-?????????????). G(?,?)
x?1exp(x/?)/(???(?)), ?,?gt0, x?? p(x)G(?,?),
c(x)G(?,?), ?,?,?,?gt0. (0) ? ? ? gt ?, ? lt
?. (1) ? ?, ? ?. (2) ? ?, ? ?. (3) ? lt
?, ? gt ?. (4) ? gt ?, ? lt ?.
77????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 6 (?-?????????????). G(?,?)
x?1exp(x/?)/(???(?)), ?,?gt0, x?? p(x)G(?,?),
c(x)G(?,?), ?,?,?,?gt0. (1) ? ?, ? ?. (2) ?
?, ? ?. (3) ? lt ?, ? gt ?. (4) ? gt ?, ? lt ?.
78????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 6 (?-?????????????). G(?,?)
x?1exp(x/?)/(???(?)), ?,?gt0, x?? p(x)G(?,?),
c(x)G(?,?), ?,?,?,?gt0.(1) ? ?, ? ? (bull
game) (2) ? ?, ? ?. (bear game).
79????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 6 (?-?????????????). G(?,?)
x?1exp(x/?)/(???(?)), ?,?gt0, x?? p(x)G(?,?),
c(x)G(?,?), ?,?,?,?gt0. (1) ? ?, ? ? (bull
game) (2) ? ?, ? ? (bear game).
80????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 6 (?-?????????????). G(?,?)
x?1exp(x/?)/(???(?)), ?,?gt0, x?? p(x)G(?,?),
c(x)G(?,?), ?,?,?,?gt0.(3) ? lt ?, ? gt ? (vol
buying) (4) ? gt ?, ? lt ? (vol selling).
81????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)LN(?,?). (1,2) ? ? (3,4) ? ?. (5,6) ?
? ?, ? ? ?.
82????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)N(?,?). (1) ??, ?gt? (bull game) (2) ??,
?lt? (bear game).
83????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)N(?,?). (1) ??, ?gt? (bull game) (2) ??,
?lt? (bear game).
84????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?,?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)N(?,?). (3) ?gt? (vol buying) (4) ?lt? (vol
selling) ? ? 0.
85????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?,?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)N(?,?). (3) ?gt? (vol buying) (4) ?lt? (vol
selling) ? ? 0.
86????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)N(?,?). (5) ?gt? (vol buying) (6) ?lt? (vol
selling) ? ? ?.
87????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 7 (????????????? ?????????????). ?e?,
?N(?,?) LN(?,?) (2?)1/2(x?)1exp((?ln(x)2)/(
2?2)), ?gt0, ???, xgt0 p(x)LN(?,?),
c(x)N(?,?). (5) ?gt? (vol buying) (6) ?lt? (vol
selling) ? ? ?.
88????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 8 (????-?????????????). ?(?)?? Be(?,?)
x?-1(1-x)?-1/B(?,?) ?,?gt0 B(?,?)?(?)?(?)/?(??)
. p(x)Be(?,?), c(x)Be(?,?).(1) bull
game (2) bear game (3) vol buying (4) vol
selling
89????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 8 (????-?????????????). ?(?)?? Be(?,?)
x?-1(1-x)?-1/B(?,?) ?,?gt0 B(?,?)?(?)?(?)/?(??)
. p(x)Be(?,?), c(x)Be(?,?).(1) ? gt ?,
?? ? ?? (bull game) (2) ? lt ?, ?? ? ?? (bear
game)
90????????????? ????? ????????
- ?????? 8 (????-?????????????). ?(?)?? Be(?,?)
x?-1(1-x)?-1/B(?,?) ?,?gt0 B(?,?)?(?)?(?)/?(??)
. p(x)Be(?,?), c(x)Be(?,?).(3) ?? lt
??, ? lt ? (vol buying) (4) ?? gt ??, ? gt ?
(vol selling)
91????????????? ????? ????????
- ??????? 8.3, 8.4. p(x)Be(3,4) (??????? ?),
c(x)Be(4,6) (????? ?) - ??????? g(x) (? 2) vol b. ????? p(x) ?
c(x) vol s. ??????.
92??????? ???????? ??????????
- ????? 1. ????? ?????? ????????? p1 (c(x), p(x))
????????? ??????? ??????? ?1(e), e?0,1, ?
??????? ???????????? w1(x), x??. ????? ???
????????????? ?????? ???? ???????? ??????
?2 µ?1, µ??, ??? ?????? p2
(c(xµ), p(xµ)) ?2(e) ?1(e), w2(x) w1(x),
x??. - ????? 2. ????? ?????? ?????????
p1 (c1(x), p1(x)) ????????? ??????? ?1(e),
e?0,1, ? w1(x), x??. ????? ??? ????????????
???????? ?????????????? ???? ???????? ??????
?2 µs?1, µ,s??, s?0, ??? ??????
p2 (c2(x), p2(x)) ?2(e) ?1(e), w2(x)
w1((xµ)/s), x??. - ????? 3. ????? ?1(e) ? w1(x) ??????? ??????? ?
??????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??? ??????
p1 (c(x), p(x)). ????? ??????????? ???????????
??????? p2 (p(x), c(x)) ??????? ?2(e) ? w2(x)
???????????? ??????????? ?2(e) 1?1(1)(1e),
e?0,1 w2(x) 1 ?1(w1(x)), x?X.
93??????? ???????? ??????????
- ????? 4. ???? ??? ???? ????? p1 ? p2 ???????????
?1(e) ? ?2(e), e?0,1, ?? ??? ????? ???????????
? ???????????? ??????? f(e) ?01f(e)d?1(e)
?01f(e)d?2(e). - ????? 5. ???? ?????????? ???????? ?, ???
??????? ??? ???? ??????????????? ? ???????????
??????????? ?(e?) ?(e?), ?? ? ???????? ?????
4 ????? ????? ? ?min. - ????? 6. ????? ?1(e?) ? ?2(e?) ???
????????? ??????? ???????, ???????????????
??????? (C), ?????? ??? ??????? ? ??????? ?2(e?)
?????????? ?? ?1(e?) ??????????????? ??????????
?? ????? 3. ????? - (i) ???? ?1(e?') ?1(e??), e?0,1, ?? ?
?2(e?') ?2(e??) - (ii) ???? ?1(e?) ??????????? ???????
????????? ?1(e?), ?? ?2(e?) ???????????
??????? ????????? ?2(e?). - ????????? ??????? ????? ? ?? ???????????????????
?????????? ????????????? (??????, ??????????????
? ??.). ? ??? ?????? ????? ???????? ?????????
?min ? (???????? ????????? ??? ???????
?????????) ?, ????? ????, ????????? p(x,?min)
c(x,?). - ??. ????? ????. ?????????? ???????-????????.
94??????? ???????? ??????????
- ?????? 1 (????????????? ???????-2).
?(?)??Exp(µ,a) ½exp(xµ)/a)/a, x??
p(x)Exp(µ,a), c(x)Exp(0,ß) (1) a?ß (vol sb),
µ free (2) µ?0 (bear bull games), a free.
95??????? ???????? ??????????
- ?????? 2 (??????????? ?????????????).
?(x) R(0,2), ?(x) R(µ,2s), x??, µ??, ?sgt0. - ???????.
- ? ?????? ?? ????????? ?????????? µ ???????????
??? ???????????? a ??????????? ????? ???????? µ
? 0, a1 ????????, ??? ???????? µ
???????????? ?? ??????????, ?? ????? ??, ???
???????????? ? ????????? ???????? µ 0 ?????
???????? ???????????. - ? ?????? ?? ????????? ?????????? a ???????????
??? ???????????? µ 1 ??????????? a 1?,
?lt?cr 1?, ?gt?cr, ?cr(?) ln(1?)/ln(1?).
????? ???????, ??? ??????? ???????????????
????????? ? ????? (??????? ???????? ?) ???????? ?
?????????? ????????, ? ????????. ??? ????????????
µ gt 1 ?????????? a 1?. ??? ???? ??????????
????????? ????????? ??? ???????? ?????? ????????
??????????? ?? ????????? ??????????? ???????
1,1, ? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ????????
???????????? ?????????.
96??????? ???????? ??????????
- ?????? 3 (????-?????????????). p(x)Be(µ,a),
c(x)Be(?,ß) mµ/a, sµa µsm/(m1),
as/(m1) free (1) m, (2) s
97??????? ???????? ??????????
- p(x) Be(a,µ) (?), c(x) Be(ß,?) (?) fixed
(1) sµa (2) mµ/a - (1) vol buying, ??, ß 1.5, ? 2.0 sp 7.0
gt sc - vol selling, ??, ß 3.0, ? 4.0 sp 3.5
lt sc - (2) bull ?? (bear ??) ß 1.5(2), ? 2.5(2.5)
mp 0.8(0.6) gt(lt) mc
98? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????
???????????? ????????? (???????? ???????????,
???????? ? ???????????)
- ??????? ?(e), e?0,1, ?????????? ??????????,
???? ?(0) 0, ?(1) 1, ?'(e) ? 0 (?(e)
??????????? ?.), ??(e) ? 0 (?(e) ???????? ?.). - ????????? ?(e?), ? ???????? ??????????, ??0,
?????????? ??????????, ???? ??? ????? ??????????
??????? ?(e) ??????? ????????????? ????? r(?)
???????????? ??????? ?. - ????????? ?(e?), ??0, ?????????? ????????????,
???? ??? ?? ???????? ??????????, ?.?. ??????????
???? (?1,?2), ?1lt?2, ? ?????????? ??????? ?(e),
????? ??? r(?2) lt r(?1).
99? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????
???????????? ?????????(???????? ???????????,
???????? ? ???????????)
- ???????? C (??????????? ??????? ????????????).
??? ????????? ??????? ?(??) ??? ????? ?1 ? ?2,
?1lt?2, ?????????? ?'(?1,?2) ? (0,1), ????? ???
??n(??1,?2) lt 0 ??? ??(0,?') ? ??n(??1,?2) gt 0
??? ??(?',1). - ???????? C' (??????????? ??????? ????????????).
??? ????????? ??????? ?(??) ??? ????? ?
?????????? ?'(?)?(0,1), ????? ??? ??n(??)/?? lt 0
??? ??(0,?'(?)) ? ??n(??)/?? gt 0 ???
??(?'(?),1). - ???????? W (??????????? ??????? ??????????????).
??? ????????? ??????? ?(??) ?????????? ????
(?1,?2), ?1lt?2, ? ?'(?1,?2) ? (0,1), ????? ???
??n(??1,?2) gt 0 ??? ??(0,?'(?1,?2)). - ???????? W' (??????????? ??????? ??????????????).
??? ????????? ??????? ?(??) ?????????? ? ?
?'(?) gt 0, ????? ??? ??n(??)/?? gt 0 ??? ????
? ? (0,?'(?)). - ???????? C? (??????????? ??????? ????????????).
??? ????????? ??????? ?(??) ?????????
??????????? ?2?n(??)/(????) ? 0 ??? ????? ? ?
? 0.
100? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????
???????????? ?????????(??????? ????????????
????????? ?.?.?.)
101? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????
???????????? ?????????(??????? ??????????????
????????? ?.?.?.)
102? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????
???????????? ?????????(i) ??????? ??????????
????????
(ii) ??????? ???????????? ????????
103? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????
???????????? ?????????(i) ?????? ???????????
?????????
(ii) ?????? ????????????? ?????????
104? ???????????? ???????? ??????? ????????
???????????? ????????? (?????????? ?????????)
- ???. 1. ????????????? ????????? ?(e?)e? ???
? 0.1, 0.3, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0 (?????? ????). - ???. 2. ?????? ??n ?n(e?2) ?n(e?1)
?1 2.0, ?2 3.0.
105? ???????????? ???????? ??????? ????????
???????????? ?????????(?????????? ?????????)
- ??????? ??????? r(?), R(?) ? A(?) (?????, ???????
? ??????? ?????? ??????????????) ??? ?????????
?(??) ??. - ??? ?????????? r(?) ? A(?) ???????
?(?) 1(1?)?, ? 3.
106? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????
???????????? ?????????(?????????? ?????????)
- ???. 1. ????????????? ????????? ??????????????
??????? ?(??)(1?)?1 ??? ? 0, 0.2, 0.4
(???????, ?????, ??????? ????? ??????????????) ?
?/(1?) 0, 0.25, 0.666667. - ???. 2. ?? ?? ??? ????????? ?(??)(1?)? ?.
107? ???????????? ???????? ??????? ????????
???????????? ?????????(???????????? ?????????)
- ???. 1. ????????????? ????????? ?(??)a?(1a)??
??? a 0.3, ? 0.1, 0.3, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0
(?????? ????). - ???. 2. ?????? ??n(??)/?? a 0.2, ? 5.0.
108? ???????????? ???????? ??????? ????????
???????????? ?????????(???????????? ?????????)
- ??????? ??????? r(?), R(?) ? A(?) (?????, ???????
? ??????? ?????? ??????????????) ??? ?????????
?(??)a?(1a)??, a 0.2. - ??? ?????????? r(?) ? A(?) ??????? ?(?) ??,
?lt1/? 1, ??1/?, ?3.
109????????? ?????
- ????????? ????? ??? ?????????-?????????????
?????? d?????. ?? ????????? X ???????? ?????????
?? n ????????? Si, i?I, Ui HSi. (?? ?? ???
????????? ???????? CC-VaR, ? ?? MC-VaR!) - ?????? p ? c ??????? ??????????? n ??????????
???????????? ??? ???? ????????? Si, i?I, ?
?????????? ???????? ???????????? ??????????????
(???? ??????? ????? ? ????? ??????? ?????????
p(x), x?X, ?????? p ????????? ?? ???????????????
?? ?????????). ? ???????? ??????? ????????
?(x)const. ?????????? ???????? ???????????
???????? ??????? ?? ????????? ??????????????????
??????????? ? ????????, ??? ???? i, j ? I - ? ?1,,?n ?????? ????????????? ??????? ?i
pi/ci, ?????????? ?????? ??????? ?????????????
??????? ?(x) - ? O(?) ??????, ???????? ?? ?????????
????????? ??????? ????????? ??????? ? ? ???????
?? ??????????? O ???????????????
?????????????? - ? O(?) ??????????, ???????? ? ? ?????? ????
?i j, ?? ?j i ? ??? ?j ????? ?????? ?j
? ???????????? ???? ??? ?. - ? ?ij, ??? ?ij 1, ???? ?i j ?ij 0,
???? ?i ? j ??????? ????????? ?????????????? O
? ??, ? ?2, ? ?2, ?3 ?3 I - ? ?ij, ?ij 1, ???? ?i j ?ij 0, ????
?i ? j ? ?? ? ?1 ?T.
110????????? ?????
- ???. ??????????? ?????? ?? ????????? (?
1..n) - ? ??, ? ?2?, ? ?3?, ? ??, ? ?2?,
? ?3?.
111????????? ?????
- ? tij, ??? tij 1, ???? i?j, ? tij 0, ????
igtj ? ??????????? ???????, ??????????? ???
????????????????? ???????????? ?????????
????????, ??????? ? ?????? - d ?p p(?) ??????????? ??????? p,
?????????? ??????????? ?? ??????????? ?????????
??????? ? ? ???????, ????? ????????? p ?1d
d(?) - e ?d ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ???
??????? d - ? e(?) ?????????? ?????? ???????
???????????? ??????????? e ? ?????????????? ??
??????????? ???????????? ??????? ? - f ?c ??????????? ??????? c, ? ???????
?????????? ??????????? ?? ??????????? ?????????
??????? ? - ? ?f ?????? ???????????? ?????????? ???
??????? f. - ???????? ??????? bk ? gk, ??? k ????? ????????,
k?K, K 1..5 ??? ?????????? ????, ? ????????
?????? ? k? ??????????? ???????? ????????
???????????, ??? ???? gk ?bk (bk ?gk), - ??????? 1 b1,i ?(ei), i?I, (?.?. b1 ?(e)).
- ??????? 2 b2,i b1,i1, i?I\1, b2,1 ?(0).
(e0 ?0 0) - ??????? 5 b5,i Int?(e),ei1,
ei/(eiei1), i?I.
112????????? ?????
- ???????????? ???????? ?? ?????????????
- ??? ???????????? ??????????? S ??????? ?,
????????????? ???????? ?, ?' S?, ? ????????????
? ???????? ?????????? ?????????? ????????????
?????????????? ?', ?', b', g' b'?' ?,
???????, A', R' ? r'(S). ???? ??? ???? ?????????
??????????? S ??????????? ???????????
r'(S) ? r(S0), ??? S0 ?????????????
???????????, ?? ??????? ???????? ???????????. - ??????????? ??????? ????????????? ???????????
????????? - n2 ?????????????, pi, ci gt 0, i?I,
p1/c1 lt p2/c2, 0 lt b1, b1' lt b2, ? ?????? (r
????????????? ?????, r' ??????????????
????????????? ?????)
113????????? ?????
- ??????????? ??????? ????????????? ???????????
????????? - pi p 1/n, i?I ?????????????? ?? ??????????
114????????? ?????
- ?????? ?????????????? "????????????" ???????? (n
3)p 0.1, 0.6, 0.3, c 0.7, 0.2, 0.1.
????????, p1 / c1 lt p2 / c2 ? p3 / c3 ?, ??????,
d p, f c. - ?????????? ??????????? ????????? ????
???????? 0.142857, 3.0, 3.0? ? 1, 2,
3b 0.01, 0.49, 1.0g b? bA 0.205
, R 0.595, y 1.90244. - ??? ?' 1, 3, 2 ?????????? ???? A' 0.223,
R' 0.649, y' 1.91031. - "??????" ??????????? (??? ?????????? ?
????????)p 0.1, 0.599, 0.301 (?? ???
???????????? p2 0.598)? 0.142857, 2.995,
3.01? ? 1, 2, 3b 0.01, 0.488601,
1.0g b? bA 0.20472, R 0.594672,
y 1.9048, ??A' 0.22308, R' 0.648401, y'
1.90658 (??? ?' 1, 3, 2).
115????????? ?????
- ??????????? ??????? ????????? ????????????? (n
3) - ?????????? ??? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????,
???????? ? - ????????? ??? ???????????, ????
- b1 0.01, b2 0.488601, b2' 0.160801,
- D 0.0357744 gt 0, bcr 0.00772703 lt b1,
- ??? ???????????? ?????????? ???????????? ???????
????????? - ????????????? ?????????????? ????????.
116????????? ?????
- ????????????? ??????????? ? ???????????? ??????
- ????????????? C1. ??? ???????? ????????? ? ?????
??????? p ????????? ???????????? ??? ??????? p
? c ?????????????? ?? ?????????? p(x) ? c(x),
x?X, ?????????????? ???, ????? ?????????????
?????? ????????? ???? ????????????. - ????????????? C2. ??? ???????? ????????? ? ?????
????????? p(x), x?X, ?????? ??? c ??????????????
?? ????????? c(x) ???, ????? p(x)/c(x) pi/ci,
x ? Si, i ? I. - ??? ????????????? ?????? ??????? ?(x) p(x)/c(x)
?????????? ?????? ??????? ????????, ??? ?????????
???????? ??? ?????? ???????? ?????????
???????????? T, ?? ??? ???? ??????????? ????????
??????????????? ????? ??????????. - ? ?????????? ? ?????????? ????? ????????????
??????????? ????????? ??????? X 1,1. ???
????? ?? ??? ???????? ????? si 2(i/n) 1,
i ? I0, ?????????? n ????????? Si (si1, si, i
?I. ???????? ??? ?i (si1si)/2, i?I, ???????
???????? ????????, ?01, ?n11, ? ?????
????????? ? ???? ?????? p' pi' P(?i), ?i
?i, ?i1, i ? I0.
117????????? ?????
- ??????? 1 (???????? ??????????). ???? ??????????
?????????? ??????? b1,i ?(ei), i?I, ?.?.
??????????? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ???????
????????. ? ????????? ????? b1 ?(e). ???
???????????? ???????, ??? ???????? ?????????
??????????? ?????????? CC-VaR ??? ???? e?0,1,
?? ??????? ?????????? ??????????. - ??????? 2 (??????????????? ? 1). ????
?????????? ?? ??????? b1,i ?(ei1), i?I, ?.?.
??????????? ??????????? ?????? ?????? ???????
????????. ???? ??????? ???? ?????????? ???????
??????????, ?? ?????????? CC-VaR ??? ????
??????????? ???? ? ?????? ei, i?I. - ???????? 3 ? 4. ???? ?????????? ???????????????
???????? ???? ?????? ????????? ?? ?(e) ? e
??????????????. - ??????? 5. ?????? ?????? ???????????? ??????? ??
?(e) ?? ????????? Si, i?I - Jk ?Ak, Rk, yk, sk, 1/Ak?, k?K?0, ??????
???????????, - Ak (gk,c) (bk,f), Rk (gk,p) (bk,d), yk
Rk/Ak1, sk ((gkRk)2/Ak, p)1/2.
118????????? ?????
- ??????? 0 ??? ????????????? ?????????????
?????, ??????????? ? ?????????? ? ???????????? ?
?????????????? C2. ??? ???? g0 g5, ?????? ????
g5,i ?????????? ?????? ?? Si, ?? g0,i
E(qSi), i?I. ????? A0 Ak, R0 Rk, y0 yk,
?? - ??????? 6 ????????????????? ?? ??????? (?????
????????) ?????? ???????? 5 ?????????????
???????? 0 ?? ???????, ?? ?? ?? ?????????????
???????, ??? ??? ?????????????? ????? A6 ??? ????
????????, ? ???? EA6 A5 A0.
119????????? ?????
- ?????? ?????c 0.22, 0.24, 0.16, 0.2, 0.18p
0.21, 0.22, 0.18, 0.2, 0.19 ?.?.?. ?(e)
e2. - ??????????? ???????????? ???????? ??? k1 ? ?(e)
e2? 0.954545, 0.916667, 1.125, 1.0,
1.05556? 2, 1, 4, 5, 3? 2, 1, 5, 3,
4 ? 0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0
,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,0d 0.22, 0.21, 0.2, 0.19,
0.18e 0.22, 0.43, 0.63, 0.82, 1.0f
0.24, 0.22, 0.2, 0.18, 0.16? 0.24, 0.46,
0.66, 0.84, 1.0b 0.0484, 0.1849, 0.3969,
0.6724, 1.0g 0.1849, 0.0484, 1.0, 0.3969,
0.6724. - ??? ????????? ????????? n ????????????? ???????
????? ???? ??????????? ????????? ?? ????
????????????? ?' S? ??????? ?
120????????? ?????
- ?????? ????? ? ?????????c 0.22, 0.24, 0.16,
0.2, 0.18p 0.21, 0.22, 0.18, 0.2, 0.19
?.?.?. ?(e) e2. - ?????? ??????????? Jk ?Ak,Rk,yk,?k,1/Ak?,
k0,1,,5J1 ? 0.412706, 0.436613, 0.0579274,
0.819805, 2.42303 ?J2 ? 0.226654, 0.243587,
0.0747086, 1.074460, 4.41201 ?J3 ? 0.319680,
0.340100, 0.0638764, 0.908860, 3.12813 ?J4 ?
0.309430, 0.329950, 0.0663155, 0.943413, 3.23175
?J5 ? 0.312847, 0.333333, 0.0654847,
0.931644, 3.19645 ?J0 ? 0.312847, 0.333333,
0.0654847, 0.952998, 3.19645 ?.
121????????? ?????
- ??????? ??????? ????????????? ??????? F1(z),
F2(z), F5(z) ? F0(z) (???????, ???????, ????? ?
????????? ????? ??????????????) ?????. - ??????? ??????? ????????????? ?????????????
??????? ??? ??? ?? ????????? ? ? ???? ?? ???????
??????.
122????????? ?????
- ????? ?????????-????????????? ??????
- ?????????? ?????? ? ???????????? ???????????
(??????? 5)
??. ????? ????????? ?????, ??????? 0
? ??????? ??????? ?????????? CC-VaR. ????????????
??????? ?(x)
123????????? ?????
????? ?????????-????????????? ?????? ?????????????
?????????? ??????????? ????? (??????? 0) ???
?????????? ????????? p(x), x?X, ??????? ?????????
c(x) ?????????????? ???, ????? p(x)/c(x) pi/ci,
x?Si, i?I. ???????
124????????? ?????
- ??????? 6 (????????????, ?? ????????? ??????
??????!). - ??????? ????????????? ???????
125????????? ?????
- ??????? 6 (????????????) ??????????????
???????? - ? ????????? ??????, ??????? ?????????????? ?????
126????????? ?????
- ??????? 6 (???????????? ????????). ???????????
??????.
?????????????? ???????? E? ? ???????????
?????????? s ?????????????? ?????? ?? ??????????
??????? ?? ??????????? ????????????? ?????
???????? ? ??? ?????????? ????????????
127????????? ?????
- ???????????? ??????????? ?????. ?????????????
??????
128????????? ?????
- ???????????? ??????????? ?????. ?????????????
??????
129????????? ?????
- ???????????? ??????????? ? ?????????????????
?????. - ????????????? ??????
??????? ??????? ????????????? ??? ?????????????
??????? F6(z)0.02 (????? ?????) ? F0(z) (???????
?????) ? ??????????? ????? ?????, ?
????????????????? ??????.
130????????? ?????
- ???????????? ??????????? ?????. ?????????????
??????
??????? ??????? ????????????? ??? ?????????????
??????? F6(z)0.02 (????? ?????) ? F0(z) (???????
?????) ?????. ?????? ???????? ???????
F6(z) F0(z) ??????.
131????????? ?????
- ???????????? ????????????????? ?????
132????????? ?????
- ???????????? ????????????????? ?????
133????????? ?????
- ???????????? ????????????????? ?????
??????? ??????? ????????????? ??? ?????????????
??????? F6(z) (????? ?????) ? F0(z) (???????
?????) ?????. ?????? ???????? ???????
F6(z) F0(z) ??????.
134????? ????????
- ? ?????????? ? ????? ???????? ?? ????????
????????? X1,1) ? ??? ??????????? ???????
???????? ???????????? ??????????? ?????????
????????? X ??????? si, i?I0I?0, I00,1,,n
????? ?i(si1si)/2, i?I, ??????? ????????
????????. - ????????? ????????????? ?????? ??????????
?????????? ??? ?????????? ???????? ? ??????????
?????? ??? ???????, ????????????? ???????? ?? h
?????????? ????? ????????? ?????????. ??? ???
???????????? Bi, i?I. ??? ?? ????????? ???????
(ic ??????????? ??????, ????? ?????) - (1) B1 M - (C1-C2)/h Bi
(Ci-1-2CiCi1)/h 1ltiltn Bn
(Cn-1-Cn)/h - (2) B1 (P2-P1)/h Bi
(Pi-1-2PiPi1)/h 1ltiltn Bn M -
(Pn-Pn-1)/h - (3) B1 (P2-P1)/h Bi
(Pi-1-2PiPi1)/h 1ltiltic Bic M
(Pic-1-Pic-CicCic1)/h Bi
(Ci-1-2CiCi1)/h icltiltn Bn
(Cn-1-Cn)/h. - ????? ????????? ? ?? ???????? ?????? ????? (?????
??? X?). - ??? ????????????? ??????? ??? ??????? ???????????
??????? i ? ???????????? h' ? h? ?? ?????????
????? ? ??????, ????????, Bi
((Ci-1-Ci)/h' - (Ci-Ci1)/h?)/(h'h?(h'h?)
).
135????? ????????
- ??????? ????????? ??????? ????????? ??????????
Gopt ? ????? ????????? (??????? ???????? ?????) ?
?? ?????????? (???????-???????????) ??????? (?.?.
? ???? ?? ??????) G (?????????? ?????). ???????
??????? ?????????? ????????? ??????? ?????????
giBi, i?I, ???????? Gopt.
136????? ????????
- ????????? ?????????? ????? ? ??????????
- c 0.22, 0.24, 0.16, 0.2, 0.18 p 0.21,
0.22, 0.18, 0.2, 0.19 - g1 0.1849, 0.0484, 1.0, 0.3969, 0.6724.
??????? ????????? ??????? g1(x) (????? ?????) ?
gopt,1(x) (??????? ?????).
137????? ????????
- ??????? ????????????? ?????? ??? ??????????
- ??????? ?????????? ????????. ???????? ???????.
138????? ????????
- ??????? ? ????????? ?????? ??? ??????????
- ??????? ?????????? ????????. ???????? ???????.
139????? ??????????????? ????????????? ?????? ???
???????? ???????? ??????? 1
- ??????? ????????????? Fopt,1(z) (??????? SS),
F0(z) ? F1(z) (???????, ????? ? ??????? ?????
??????????????). - J1 ? 0.412706, 0.436613, 0.0579274, 0.819805,
2.42303 ?, - Jopt,1 ? 0.412706, 0.443394, 0.0743574,
0.646415, 2.42303 ?, - J0 ? 0.312847, 0.333333, 0.0654847, 0.952998,
3.19645 ?.
140????? ??????????????? ????????????? ?????? ???
???????? ??????????????? 5
- ??????? ????????????? Fopt,5(z) (??????? SS),
F0(z) ? F5(z) (???????, ????? ? ??????? ?????
??????????????). - J5 ? 0.312847, 0.333333, 0.0654847, 0.931644,
3.19645 ? - Jopt,5 ? 0.312847, 0.339195, 0.0842214,
0.731766, 3.19645 ? - J0 ? 0.312847, 0.333333, 0.0654847, 0.952998,
3.19645 ?.
141????? ????????
- ???????, ????????? ? ??????? ????????????? ??????
??? - ???????? ????????. ?