Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and Fertility of the U.S.

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Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and
Fertility of the U.S.

• David Pieper
• Departments of Geography, University of
  California, Berkeley,
• Social Sciences, City College of San Francisco
• APPAM Conference
• Maastricht
• 19 Feb 2010

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Background

• U.S. has more immigrants than any other country
• 13 of population was born outside the country
• Age structure and fertility effects on social
  security, labor markets, etc.
• Conventional wisdom

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Conventional Wisdom

• International migration does not play a major
  role in the demography of aging
• Immigrants themselves age
• Initial labor migration often becomes family
  migration
• (National Research Council 2001 44)
• Over half of U.S. residents surveyed believe
  immigrants make up 25 or more of the population
  (vs. actual figure of about half that) (Massey
  2007)

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Stock vs Flow

• Stock of immigrants is the existing population
  living in the U.S.
• Flow is the stream of new immigrants arriving
  each year
• The stock ages each year, but they also have
  children
• The flow has very different characteristics than
  the stock

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Data and Methods

• American Community Survey 2007
• Large sample size
• Individual micro data

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Table 1 Fertility Rates, U.S. 2007
Age Total U.S. Native Born Foreign Born Current Year Migrants 0 to 5 Years in U.S.
15-19 0.028 0.027 0.039 0.022 0.037
20-24 0.092 0.089 0.109 0.047 0.091
25-29 0.118 0.114 0.134 0.062 0.125
30-34 0.102 0.096 0.121 0.057 0.112
35-39 0.055 0.050 0.075 0.047 0.081
40-44 0.016 0.014 0.024 0.021 0.029
45-49 0.004 0.004 0.005 0.015 0.008
50-54 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.007
Total Fertility Rate 2.07 1.97 2.54 1.35 2.45
Source Authors computations using data from
American Community Survey, http//usa.ipums.org/us
a/
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Conclusions

• Immigrants more likely to be young adults
• Public perceptions or misperceptions about the
  number of immigrants may come from age structure
  and fertility patterns
• Immigrants have higher fertility
• U.S. population is growing due to both
  immigration itself and higher fertility among
  immigrants
• Flow and stock of immigrants differ

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Future Research

• Trends over time
• Patterns over space
• Country of origin
• Ethnicity
• Socioeconomic variables
• Comparisons to other countries