Thailand

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2
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• Thailands Experience in Oil Price Deregulation,
  Dr. Piyasvasti Amranand, October 2002
• ??????????????????????????????????,
  ??????????????????????????????????????? 11
  ???????? 2544 ?? http//www.eppo.go.th/petro/ThaiO
  ilPrices.html

3
?????????????

• Energy Pricing ?? ?????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? (Fuel Options) ??????
  2549 ???? 179-194
• Coping with Higher Oil Prices, Robert Bacon and
  Masami Kojima, Energy Sector Management
  Assistance Programme, World Bank, June 2006

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4
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  ??????????????? (?????? ????? ?????????? ????
  ??? ??? LPG)
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  ???????????????????????????? (???????????????)
  ????????????? (??????????????????)

7
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  (????????????????)

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9
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• ???? ? ???????? (ex-refinery price)
• ???????????????
• ??????????? (gross refining margin)

10
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• ?????????????????????????? (retail price)
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• ?????????? (marketing margin ?????????????
  
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11
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  (??????) ?????????????? ??????????
• ?????????? ????? 10 ??? 1.

12
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13
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• ?????????? 2 ??????
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14
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• ?????????? 2 ??????
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15
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16
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???????? 2551 (simplified) (??????????????????????
?? ?????? ???)
????? ??????????
    ???? ? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ???? ???? ???????
?????? 95 30.5208 6.8071 3.4500 0.7500 0.5621 42.09
????????? 95 29.4134 6.1466 0.2500 0.2500 2.1300 38.19
?????? 91 30.1019 6.7874 3.0000 0.7500 1.1507 41.79
????????????? (0.035S) 36.5681 5.3250 -0.3000 0.2500 0.7969 42.64
????????? (B5) 36.7432 5.1525 -1.5000 0.2500 1.2942 41.94
????????????? (0.7S) 35.3910 5.3042 -1.8052 0.2500 1.5000 40.64
???????????? 35.9320 5.4619 -0.3000 0.2500 1.7061 43.05
????????? 24.8797 3.2684 0.0600 0.0700 1.6919 29.97
?????????? (??????????????) 10.9960 3.5730 0.3033 0.0000 3.2566 18.13
Exchange Rate 33.6911 BAHT/
AVG Marketing Margin 1.2887 BAHT/LITRE
AVG Gross Refinery Margin 1.7923 BAHT/LITRE
17
????????????????????????????? ? ?????? 30
???????? 2551 (simplified) (??????????????????????
?? ?????? ???)
????? ??????
  ???? ? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ???? ???? ???????
?????? 95 72.51 16.17 8.20 1.78 1.34 100.00
????????? 95 77.02 16.09 0.65 0.65 5.58 100.00
?????? 91 72.03 16.24 7.18 1.79 2.75 100.00
????????????? (0.035S) 85.76 12.49 -0.70 0.59 1.87 100.00
????????? (B5) 87.61 12.29 -3.58 0.60 3.09 100.00
????????????? (0.7S) 87.08 13.05 -4.44 0.62 3.69 100.00
???????????? 83.47 12.69 -0.70 0.58 3.96 100.00
????????? 83.02 10.91 0.20 0.23 5.65 100.00
?????????? (??????????????) 60.65 19.71 1.67 0.00 17.96 100.00
18
????????????????????????????? ? ?????? 30
???????? 2551 (detailed1) (???????????????????????
? ?????? ???)
????? ??????????
    ???? ? ???????? ???? ????????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????????? ???? ??????
?????? 95 30.5208 3.6850 0.3685 3.4500 0.7500 38.7743
????????? 95 29.4134 3.3165 0.3317 0.2500 0.2500 33.5616
?????? 91 30.1019 3.6850 0.3685 3.0000 0.7500 37.9054
????????????? (0.035S) 36.5681 2.3050 0.2305 -0.3000 0.2500 39.0536
????????? (B5) 36.7432 2.1898 0.2190 -1.5000 0.2500 37.9020
????????????? (0.7S) 35.3910 2.4050 0.2405 -1.8052 0.2500 36.4813
???????????? 35.9320 2.4050 0.2405 -0.3000 0.2500 38.5275
????????? 24.8797 1.1888 0.1189 0.0600 0.0700 26.3174
?????????? (??????????????) 10.9960 2.1700 0.2170 0.3033 0.0000 13.6863
Exchange Rate 33.6911 BAHT/
AVG Marketing Margin 1.2887 BAHT/LITRE
AVG Gross Refinery Margin 1.7923 BAHT/LITRE
19
????????????????????????????? ? ?????? 30
???????? 2551 (detailed2) (???????????????????????
? ?????? ???)
????? ??????????
    ???? ?????? ???? ??????????? ?????????? ??????? ??? ??????? ???? ??????????? ???? ???????
?????? 95 38.7743 2.7142 41.4885 0.5621 0.0394 42.09
????????? 95 33.5616 2.3493 35.9109 2.1300 0.1491 38.19
?????? 91 37.9054 2.6534 40.5588 1.1507 0.0805 41.79
????????????? (0.035S) 39.0536 2.7338 41.7873 0.7969 0.0558 42.64
????????? (B5) 37.9020 2.6531 40.5552 1.2942 0.0906 41.94
????????????? (0.7S) 36.4813 2.5537 39.0350 1.5000 0.1050 40.64
???????????? 38.5275 2.6969 41.2244 1.7061 0.1194 43.05
????????? 26.3174 1.8422 28.1596 1.6919 0.1184 29.97
?????????? (??????????????) 13.6863 0.9580 14.6443 3.2566 0.2280 18.13
Exchange Rate 33.6911 BAHT/
AVG Marketing Margin 1.2887 BAHT/LITRE
AVG Gross Refinery Margin 1.7923 BAHT/LITRE
20
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• ???????????????????? ???????????????????????????
  ????????????? (??????????????? ????????????)
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21
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• ?????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????? ?.?.
  2551 (???????????????)
• ?????????????? 30 ?????? ??.
• ???? ? ????????????? 11 ?????? ??.

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?????????????????????????
?????????????????? ?????????? (???????????)
???????? (TOP) 220,000
?????? (BCP) 120,000
?????? (ESSO) 145,000
????? (PTTAR) 215,000
????? (SPRC) 150,000
IRPC 215,000
RPC 17,000
??? 1,137,000
23
?????????????????????????
???. ????????? 5 ???? ??????? 35
???????????????????
???????????????? 1,137 kbpd

• PTT accounts for 35 by equity portion
• TOP/SPRC/PTTAR complex refineries with
  potential expansion
• BCP is undertaking Product Quality Improvement
  project to enhance product mix

Note Data as of 31 Dec 2007
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?????????????????????????????????????
?????????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????
????????????? (???????????) 220,000 120,000 145,000 145,000 150,000
LPG ???????????? 3.5 3.0 4.1 4.2 10.1
?????? 27.0 18.0 27.6 26.2 21.6
???? ???????? 12.0 11.0 13.8 14.5 -
????? 36.0 33.0 33.8 40.0 41.1
??? 16.0 32.0 17.2 16.2 20.8
????? 3.0 - - - 6.4
??? 97.5 97.0 96.5 101.1 100.0
25
????????????????????????????????????????
5
LPG (??????????)
22
ULG (??????)
Kerosene (??????????????)
11
38
CDU
Gasoil (?????)
Crude Oil (?????????)
Fuel Oil (?????????)
21
Fuel/ Loss (??????????/ ???????)
3
????? ?????????????
26
????????????????????????????????????????????
KBD
IRPC Upgrade
PTTAR Expansion
Thailand Refining Capacity
TOP (CDU 3 Debot)
997
960
922
887
851
848
796
Alternative Fuels
769
730
724
738
732
736
JET/IK
LPG
Demand Growth2013-2016 4
FO
Demand Growth2008-2012 4
Gasoline
Demand Growth2004-2007 0
Diesel
????????????????????????????? ???????????????????
????????????????????????? 2016