The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies The Chinese University of Hong Kong

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The 4th International Conference on
Population Geographies The Chinese University of
Hong Kong

• TopicEffects of Budgetary Policies on Population
  Migration ?A complexity approach
• Author presenter Min-shen Hsueh
• Author Prof. Shih-Kung Lai
• Room 2A ELB-LT1
• AM1130-1150 Date July 11, 2007

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Research structure

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Purpose motivation of research
• 3. Methodology design of research
• 4. Analysis of research
• 5. Result of research
• 6. Conclusions

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Purpose motivation of Research

• Does population migration tested after the model
  of power law with
• 1. Educational budget
• 2. Economic development budget
• 3. Community welfare budget
• 4. Community environmental protection budget
• Could find or enforce agglomeration and
  decentralization of population?

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• Issues of Research
• 1. Does public policy used will be affected on
  the self-organization of population migration ?
• 2. Does the phenomenon of power law on population
  migration was affected by public policies?
• 3. Does the independent character of power law be
  affected by human activity ?

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complexity theory

• A new approach to science that studies how
  relationships between parts give rise to the
  collective behaviors of a system and how the
  elements interacts and forms relationships with
  its environment.
• 1.Emergence
• 2.Nonlinearity
• 3.Interacting agents
• 4.Increasing returns
• 5.Self-organization(chaos, order, and complexity)
• 6.Power law

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Power Law

• A power law is any polynomial relationship
  that exhibits the property of scale invariance.
• Power law with a particular scaling exponent
  is equivalent up to constant factors, its
  behavior is what produces the linear relationship
  when both logarithms are taken of both f(x) and
  x, and the straight-line on the log-log plot is
  often called the signature of a power law.

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Power Law

• Scale as bigger or smaller was contrasted with
  its own numbers, but form linearity after double
  logarithm. (example as city)
• PrP1r-q , Pr scale of person of the r rank
  city, rrank (means slope),
• P1scale of person of the first rank city ,
  qZipf force (means r square and usually equal 1)
• Slope means agglomeration (usually take absolute
  value) r square means self-organizations degree.

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Slope as agglomerations or disseminations

• More steep, more agglomeration less steep, less
  agglomeration.

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Affected of economic development budget-Taipei
county
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Affected of community protection budget-Xinzu
county
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Self-organization

• Self-organization is a process where the
  organization (constraint, redundancy) of a system
  spontaneously increases, i.e. without this
  increase being controlled by the environment or
  an encompassing or otherwise external system.
• 1.Activity of whole system
• 2.Many sub-systems in the whole system
• 3.Internal logic behavior of each sub-systems
• 4.Emergence of structure was not arise inherent
  among locations differences but from internal
  logic behavior of the system.
• 5. Example Critical Mass (bicycle), herd
  behaviors, groupthink

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Research methodology

• 1.Number of analysis of Regions22counties/cities
  s budget.
• 2.Number of analysis of Time15time items
  budget.

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Methodology design of research

• Research of design-1
• Targets Education, Economic development,
  Community welfare, Community environmental
  protection budget population of each
  county/city in Taiwan.
• Data(amount)be counterweigh
• 1.four budgets be managed with counterweigh
• 2.total add the value of four budgets after
  counterweigh .

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• Research of design-2
• 1.Keeping order as big from small to the value of
  general average
• 2.22counties, and 15time series of budget with
  ordering rank array.(rank as order of number of
  each item size as distribution of 4 budgets)
• 3.Double Logarithm to both of Rank and size,
  coefficient of agglomeration of population slope
  and R-square(as evidence of power law)were taken.

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Analysis of research-1

• 1?affected of educational budget
• (1) population agglomeration coefficient(as
  slope)
• Regionsit could affected the population
  agglomeration strongly.
• Timebe formed polarization on population
• (2) self organization coefficient (as R-square)
• Regioncan not find high evidence of self
  organization effect.
• Timecould not find the relationships of self
  organization effect.

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Analysis of research-2

• 2?affected of economic development budget
• (1) population agglomeration coefficient(as
  slope)
• regions it could affected the population
  agglomeration strongest among these four.
• Time could not find more agglomeration
  strongly.
• (2) self organization coefficient (as R-square)
• regions could not find self organization
  effect .
• Timealso could not find self organization
  effect neither.

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Analysis of research-3

• 3? affected of community welfare
• (1)population agglomeration coefficient(as
  slope)
• Regionscould affected the population
  agglomeration strongest as economic development
  budgets effect.
• Time also find it affected the population
  agglomeration strongest too.
• (2) self organization coefficient (as R-square)
• Regionsno self organization effect.
• Timeit was show self organization effect
• stronger than others.

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Analysis of research-4

• 4? affected of community protection budget
• (1)population agglomeration coefficient(as slope)
• Regionsit could affected the population
  agglomeration stronger a little.
• Timeit could not affect the population
  agglomeration stronger.
• (2) self organization coefficient (as R-square)
• Regionscould not find high self organization
  effect.
• Timeit has more self organization effect
• as community welfares effect.

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Result-1

• 1 .power law self organization situations
  were working itself on the regions with time
  passing, they do not affect by man made
• they are not affected such as educational
  budget has upper than the limited, we can not
  find power law was stop working.

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Result-2

• 2.Man made as budget could not stop the power law
  working, and self-organization situations of
  natural matters were doing itself automatically.
• 3.Budgetary policies such as educational budget
  may push population agglomerations move strongly,
  but just on contemporary.

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conclusions

• Public policies were men made as limitation as
  educational budget, under the test of time
  series,
• which its power law(population agglomeration)and
  self-organization degree were affected lower and
  less than other three none limitation budgets
  effect.

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1991??2005????????(?????)???????slope?R2???(slope?
???????)
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1991??2005?????????????????????slope?R2???
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1991?2005??????????????slope?R2???
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• Ending
• Thank you very much