Impossible Win-Win Futures - Part 2: Evaluation of Science and Technology Movements Nick Bardsley School of Agriculture, Policy and Development

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Impossible Win-Win Futures - Part 2 Evaluation
of Science and Technology MovementsNick
BardsleySchool of Agriculture, Policy and
Development
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Where should Society Invest?

• Biochar Wave Power
• Offshore wind Tidal Power
• Onshore wind Smart Grids
• Nuclear Passiv Haus
• Biofuels Zero Till
• Organic Farming Solar PV
• GM Biotechnology Conc. Solar Power

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Ecology Cooperative Structure Without Conscious
Orchestration
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Ecology Cooperative Structure Without Conscious
Orchestration
E
D
A
C
B
D
F
Reference Ulanowicz, R. (1997). Ecology the
Ascendent Perspective. Ch3.
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Science and Technology Movements Spontaneous
Order and Orchestration
Coalitions form around particular technologies
via both contrived and spontaneous mechanisms
Civil society
the coalitions influence public opinion,
perception and the course of scientific activity
critics given "outgroup" status
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How Can the Public Tell if Public Perception is
Being Distorted?

• Granfalloon coalition formed by ordinary
  processes
• defective underpinnings
• To identify it, assess the underpinnings

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Biofuels Giampietro Mayumi 2009
High quality primary energy source (conventional
fossil fuels) Output 1.07 Net supply 1 EU
directive 10 liquid fuel by 2020 Italy 30 of
labour supply 2.3 x agricultural land currently
in production
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Rationality

• Procedural / Substantive
• Given the difficulty of engaging with specialist
  literature, criteria of procedural rationality
  are important for generalists
• Especially if they cannot easily be mimicked

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Evidence and Information Sources

• Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
• Academic monographs
• Investigative journalism
• Data from Government Agencies
• Data collected by Corporations
• Reports of Government Agencies
• Reports of NGOs, Charities, Think Tanks
• Reports of consultants
• Reports of Corporations
• Press articles
• .

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Role of Peer-Reviewed Literature in Institutional
Process of Science

• Recent, physics-centric, philosophy of science
• One observation in ideal circumstances, judged
  bona fide by peer-review
• Replicated independently, judged bona fide by
  peer review
• 1 2 Necessary and sufficient to establish a
  result counts as a result
• Corroboration plays similar role in
  non-experimental sciences
• More generally a quality control on academic
  discourse

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Consistency with Process (Scientists') Press
Articles
Credible Dubious
Scientist publishes research in journals in this field Articles highlight findings from peer reviewed literature E.g. Hansen's 'radical' climate science stance Publishes in other fields, or non-research articles or ceased journal output Cast doubt on findings from peer-reviewed literature E.g. Seitz's writings on smoking and health
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Classic Example of Distorting Coalition

• Tobaccos War on Medical Science
• Hired politically libertarian ace physicists
• To publish articles emphasising uncertainties in
  medical science
• Press articles
• Letters and opinion pieces in journals
• Funded eccentric research e.g. on alternative
  causes of lung cancer

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Consistency with Due Process Treatment of
Inconvenient Studies

• Pusztai affair
• Study on GM feeding trials published in the
  Lancet in 1999 reported adverse health effects on
  rats
• Melchett (2010) No studies have sought to
  replicate this trial

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Substantive Neglect of Available Wisdom

• the Biofuel Delusion
• Neglected paradigm energetics
• Application of energetics to biofuels clearly
  unsupportive of the technology
• Most researchers dont go there
• Lesson generalisable within renewables field?

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Substantive Quality of Narrative
Irrelevant whether the output / input ratio of
energy carriers in bioethanol production is
0.9/1, 1.1/1 or 1.5/1 To be a useful energy
source in a non-fossil-fuel-economy requires at
least 5/1 (Giampietro Mayumi)
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Science is illuminating, but Which studies
have not been done? Which questions have not been
addressed? Which values are at work?
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Flashpoints
Academic conflict missing studies marginalised
perspectives neglect of available wisdom Legal
cases actual conspiracies Scandals in the media
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General Problem For "Civic Epistemology" in
Environmental Risk Assessment

• Science is not value neutral
• A key value is purity of the discipline
• Use of low-aplha levels in statistical tests
  (10, 5, 1 conventional levels)
• Keeps out spurious results at a cost of
  likelihood of missing genuine ones
• Conflict with precautionary principle
• See work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette

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Towards a Toolkit / checklist for Civic
Epistemology for Sustainability

• Application of energetics
• Identification of other marginalised perspectives
• Precautionary principle applied or ignored?
• Is peer-reviewed, corroborated, evidence given
  due weight?
• Where are the 'flashpoints', what can be learned
  from them?
• Identification of missing work information
• "Too big to fail"?
• Silver bullet or component of transformed
  society?